All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Matthew Dunlap
YesNo
Jordan Wood
YesNo
Jared Golden
YesNo
Joe Baldacci
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.16 12:05 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Jared Golden officially announced his retirement in Nov 2025 and is not seeking re-election; his current market price of ~5.7c represents a 'zombie premium', and his fair value should be near 0c. Joe Baldacci is the clear frontrunner (FV 45c) due to high name recognition (brother of a former Governor) and a strong base in Bangor. Jordan Wood (FV 30c), a former Katie Porter Chief of Staff, brings strong fundraising capabilities and a 'reformer' narrative, having pivoted from the Senate race to focus entirely on this seat. Matthew Dunlap, the current State Auditor and former Secretary of State, was the first to qualify for the ballot; the market's 14c undervalues his experience and organizational strength, warranting a 20c valuation.
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Rule Risk
There are two main risks: 1. Maine uses Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). If no candidate wins 50% in the first round, the tabulation process can take days or weeks, causing resolution delays. 2. The 'Options' list provided does not explicitly include 'Other', yet the rules mention resolving to 'Other'. If an unlisted candidate (like Paige Loud or Troy Jackson, mentioned in search results) wins, holders of the listed specific candidates would lose everything, creating a hidden 'Field' risk. Additionally, Jared Golden announced in Nov 2025 he would not run, yet he remains a listed option, which is a trap for uninformed traders.
Divergence
The primary divergence is in the pricing of Jared Golden. Despite his explicit retirement and absence from the campaign trail, the prediction market still implies a ~6% probability of him winning (and a 'No' price of ~94% instead of 99%). This indicates market lag or 'zombie capital' on a settled outcome. Among active candidates, the market correctly favors Baldacci but may be undervaluing Dunlap's credentials.
