NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner
Elections|$348.0k Vol|
time50 days 22 hrs

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.30 19:56
Top Undervalued
+6¢
Alex Bores(Yes)
+1¢
Jack Schlossberg(No)
+0.5¢
Micah Lasher(No)

NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner AI analysis: • +6¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Latest market prices show Micah Lasher's price dropping to 44.5c, while Alex Bores surged to 39.5c. ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?
Weather|$87.8k Vol|
time10 hrs 37 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+21¢
29°C(No)
+17.5¢
28°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts and current market data, Hong Kong will be heavily affected by...
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Movers
May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026: As rain forecasts continued to materialize, the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to ~3.5c, and the 29°C option fell from 45.5c to 32c. Meanwhile, the 27°C option surged intra-day to 22.7c before settling at 14.7c, and the 28°C option remained high around 44c. The reason is that satellite imagery hours before resolution showed rainbands fully covering Hong Kong, heavily suppressing daytime heating. May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approached, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.
AI Analysis
What will be the top US Netflix show this week?
Culture|$21.1k Vol|
time1 days 22 hrs

What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Top Undervalued
+69¢
Should I Marry A Murderer?(No)
+37¢
Man on Fire: Season 1(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The current sum of 'Yes' prices across all options is approximately 144c, indicating significant ove...
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Movers
April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Man on Fire: Season 1' surged from ~26.5c to around 60.5c as viewership data heading into the weekend showed it taking a commanding lead for the #1 spot. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Should I Marry A Murderer?' saw a sharp spike from 10c to a peak of 45c before settling at 32.5c, reflecting sudden viral momentum and a market repricing of its competitive chances. April 30, 2026 - May 1, 2026, 'Running Point: Season 2' dropped from 42.5c to ~30.5c, losing its frontrunner status as competing shows gained stronger late-week traction.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
Weather|$48.4k Vol|
time10 hrs 37 mins

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+26.5¢
23°C(No)
+9¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature at Tokyo (Haneda Airport) on May ...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Alex Bores
YesNo
33¢
67¢
39¢
61¢
+6¢
Jack Schlossberg
YesNo
16¢
84¢
15¢
85¢
+1¢

Expand to view all 19 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
Apr 29, 2026 - Apr 30, 2026, Alex Bores's price surged from 29c to 39.5c as market confidence shifted toward him as a viable challenger to Micah Lasher, significantly tightening the race. Mar 20, 2026 - Mar 26, 2026, Alex Bores's price steadily rose from 20.5c to 27.5c, while Jack Schlossberg dropped from 25.5c to 18.5c, and Micah Lasher slipped from 50.5c to 45.5c, suggesting capital is flowing away from celebrity candidates lacking a local base towards a more viable serious contender in Bores, tightening the race. Mar 13, 2026 - Mar 15, 2026, Jack Schlossberg experienced significant volatility, dropping to 15c before rapidly recovering to 24.5c; concurrently, Micah Lasher briefly spiked to 53c on Mar 14 before retreating to 47.5c, indicating deep market disagreement regarding Schlossberg's actual viability, leading to liquidity-driven price corrections. Feb 24, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, Prices for Cameron Kasky (0.85c to 5.9c) and Erik Bottcher (0.65c to 5.2c) spiked significantly, suggesting the market was scouting for dark horses, specifically Councilmember Bottcher. Feb 19, 2026 - Feb 20, 2026, George Conway's price surged from 1c to 10.75c before retracing, driven by social media speculation rather than concrete campaign steps. Feb 9, 2026 - Feb 25, 2026, Micah Lasher saw a slow bleed in price (from ~59c to 54c), indicating early signs of waning market confidence in his ability to clear the field.

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