All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Micah Lasher
YesNo
Jack Schlossberg
YesNo
Erik Bottcher
YesNo
Alex Bores
YesNo
George Conway
YesNo
Lina Khan
YesNo
Andrew Cuomo
YesNo
Liz Krueger
YesNo
Julie Menin
YesNo
Cameron Kasky
YesNo
Brad Lander
YesNo
Chelsea Clinton
YesNo
Cynthia Nixon
YesNo
Gale Brewer
YesNo
Liam Elkind
YesNo
Brad Hoylman-Sigal
YesNo
Carolyn Maloney
YesNo
Keith Powers
YesNo
Scott Stringer
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 21:30 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although market pricing shows Micah Lasher dipping below 50c, suggesting a tight race, he remains the structural favorite (>50% fair value) given the NY-12 voter demographics and the Nadler machine endorsement. Jack Schlossberg's price (~25c) carries a significant 'celebrity premium' driven by name recognition and social media rather than proven ground game. Alex Bores is the only serious alternative, but pricing him at parity with Schlossberg (both ~24.5c) suggests the market is either underestimating Bores's policy seriousness relative to Schlossberg or vastly overestimating Schlossberg's actual electoral viability. George Conway remains statistical noise.
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Divergence
Significant divergence exists. The prediction market assigns Jack Schlossberg a ~25% chance of winning, which is highly unlikely in mainstream political analysis given his lack of political track record and reliance on the Kennedy family legacy. Traditional consensus (mainstream media/pollsters) would typically rate a candidate with incumbent endorsement and organizational resources (Lasher) as a much stronger favorite (>60%), treating 'viral' candidates as marginal. The market price reflects an online bias towards name recognition.
