All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
↑ $105
YesNo
↑ $110
YesNo
↑ $100
YesNo
↓ $75
YesNo
↓ $70
YesNo
↓ $80
YesNo
↑ $120
YesNo
↓ $65
YesNo
↓ $60
YesNo
↑ $200
YesNo
↑ $130
YesNo
↓ $50
YesNo
↓ $55
YesNo
↑ $140
YesNo
↑ $180
YesNo
↓ $45
YesNo
↓ $40
YesNo
↑ $150
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.17 19:09 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 17, WTI crude futures are hovering in the $95-$97 range. While geopolitical tensions (Strait of Hormuz) continue to support prices, the 'Active Month' contract is about to roll from April (CLJ26) to May (CLK26). Since the market is in backwardation (near-term prices higher than long-term), this rollover implies the benchmark price used for settlement resolution may 'automatically' drop in the coming days, increasing the difficulty of triggering high strikes ($100+). Therefore, despite strong spot fundamentals, the valuation for high strikes ($110+) should be downgraded due to the roll yield headwind and time decay. $100 remains a high-probability outcome (requiring only a ~$4 move), but certainty has decreased compared to three days ago.
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Hedging
Crude Oil
US 10Y Yield
S&P 500
This prediction directly tracks Crude Oil prices. If oil hits extreme levels (e.g., $110+ or <$40) within a short period, it typically signals a major geopolitical crisis (war) or economic recession. This would create significant spillover impacts on inflation expectations (US 10Y Yield) and risk assets (S&P 500). This market serves as a direct hedge for energy cost volatility.
Movers
2026-03-14 to 2026-03-17, the price of '↑ $120' plunged from 53c to 27.5c (a drop of over 45%), while '↑ $100' fell from 92.4c to 77c. The reason is the market realizing the imminent roll of the WTI futures Active Month (from April to May); in a backwardated market structure, the new contract is likely priced lower, reducing the probability of the settlement price breaching extreme highs before month-end, triggering massive profit-taking by bulls.
2026-03-11 to 2026-03-14, '↑ $120' doubled from 26.5c to 53c as market panic over the Strait of Hormuz blockade peaked, leading to FOMO chasing.
