Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest 2026 Senate race developments for Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (specifically checking for Independent candidate risks in Maine). Analyze the current Polymarket order book for liquidity depth on the 'Yes' side, and assess if the current price reasonably reflects the cumulative probability (parlay risk) of Democrats needing to sweep all four competitive seats.

AI-powered analysis for: Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest 2026 Senate race developments for Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (specifically checking for Independent candidate risks in Maine). Analyze the current Polymarket order book for liquidity depth on the 'Yes' side, and assess if the current price reasonably reflects the cumulative probability (parlay risk) of Democrats needing to sweep all four competitive seats.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Senate 'Core Four' Polling Weakest Link Analysis: Compare the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight or RCP for the Senate races in GA, MI, NC, and ME. Specifically identify the 'weakest link' state where the Democrat is polling lowest, as one loss invalidates the entire bet, and use this to judge if the current 'Yes' odds are overpriced relative to the risk.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Senate 'Core Four' Polling Weakest Link Analysis: Compare the latest polling data from FiveThirtyEight or RCP for the Senate races in GA, MI, NC, and ME. Specifically identify the 'weakest link' state where the Democrat is polling lowest, as one loss invalidates the entire bet, and use this to judge if the current 'Yes' odds are overpriced relative to the risk.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision] Capital Lock-up vs. DeFi Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the time cost of capital. Compare the expected return of betting 'No' (likely high win-rate but low yield in a 'sweep' market) against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols over the same period to decide if the trade is efficient.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision] Capital Lock-up vs. DeFi Opportunity Cost: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months away), calculate the time cost of capital. Compare the expected return of betting 'No' (likely high win-rate but low yield in a 'sweep' market) against the risk-free yield of stablecoins in DeFi protocols over the same period to decide if the trade is efficient.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

Politics|$3,607 Vol|

183 days 22 hrs

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? - AI Found +12¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.26 16:01

Top Undervalued

+12¢

(No)

Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? AI analysis: • +12¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Despite recent market optimism pushing the price of Democrats sweeping these four core states (GA, M...

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All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

YesNo

67¢

33¢

55¢

45¢

0¢

+12¢

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

S&P 500

US 10Y Yield

If Democrats win all four of these key seats, it likely signals they will retain or expand their Senate majority in the 2026 midterms. This is generally viewed as a signal for continued fiscal expansion or policy continuity for the incumbent administration. Senate control directly impacts the passage of tax, regulatory, and spending bills, creating a medium tradable impact on the broader equity market (S&P 500) and Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield).

Divergence

There is a significant divergence. The prediction market assigns a high 71% probability to Democrats sweeping all four of these seats. However, mainstream political analysts generally consider it extremely difficult to win four highly competitive swing or leaning states in a single election cycle due to parlay risk. North Carolina and Maine, in particular, present steep challenges given Republican roots and strong incumbent/historical advantages, leading traditional pundits to estimate the probability of a complete sweep far below 70%.