All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
June 30, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.10 20:33 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Although the 'March 31' option saw a speculative spike on March 5th (from 3c to 19c), this appears driven by short-term FOMO regarding the end of Season 1 rather than a confirmed TGE announcement, as a 3-week window is tight for a typical launch. However, a significant market inefficiency exists: while the probability of a March launch surged, the cumulative 'December 31' option remained flat (61.5c). Given Hylo's backing by Robot Ventures and active points campaign, a token launch within 2026 is highly probable, making the long-term options (Dec 2026) significantly undervalued.
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Exotics
Hylo is a relatively niche crypto project (likely a newer protocol on Solana or similar), virtually unknown outside of specific crypto enthusiast circles. This is a classic niche market question with low general awareness.
Divergence
Internal pricing divergence detected. On March 5th, the implied probability for the 'March 31' option surged by ~13%, but this did not propagate to subsequent months. Logically, if the probability of a Q1 launch increases, the cumulative probability (Yes) for Q2, Q3, and Q4 must increase by at least that amount. However, the 'December 31' price remained stagnant at 61.5c, suggesting the market is either skeptical of the short-term spike or suffering from severe lag/liquidity fragmentation across expirations.
