Will SOFR hit __ in April? - AI Found +52¢ Mispricing

Economy|$16.1k Vol|

20 days 9 hrs

Will SOFR hit __ in April? - AI Found +52¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.02 12:11

Top Undervalued

+52¢

↓3.60%(No)

+23¢

↑3.76%(Yes)

+21.5¢

↑3.74%(Yes)

Will SOFR hit __ in April? AI analysis: • +52¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

The SOFR rate currently fluctuates between 3.60% and 3.70%. Based on late March data, SOFR bounced b...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Crypto|$21.8k Vol|

631 days 14 hrs

Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Relay is backed by top-tier VCs including Archetype, USV, a16z, and Khosla, suggesting an infrastruc...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a prediction on the future valuation of a specific crypto protocol (Relay). It is a standard topic for crypto insiders but obscure to the general public. It's not an absurd novelty market, but rather a typical niche financial speculation market.

March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the $900M option spiked from 8c to 18.5c, likely due to a single large buy order sweeping thin liquidity, before dropping back to 7.5c on the 25th. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the price of the $900M option plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c, likely due to the market correcting previous irrational pricing or thin buy orders being cleared, returning to a more reasonable probability range.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket Relay FDV page to analyze the odds spreads and liquidity depth across different valuation tiers (e.g., $300M vs $800M), and synthesize user discussions regarding Tokenomics and airdrop timelines to assess fair value and arbitrage opportunities.

Economy|$12.3k Vol|

Bank of England decision in June?

Top Undervalued

25 bps decrease(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of the Yes prices across all options is currently at 148%, indicating a significant premium....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Bank of England's rate decision directly impacts the valuation of the British Pound and liquidity expectations for UK equities. A surprise hike or cut will immediately trigger significant tradable movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate and the FTSE 100 index. Additionally, because the Pound is a key component of the US Dollar Index, DXY will also experience some spillover effects.

What are the exact resolution rules for the BoE June decision? How will a 12.5 bps cut or hike be calculated?

Science|$40.5k Vol|

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of late March 2026, no VEI 6 eruption has occurred this year. According to Smithsonian GVP histor...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While volcanic eruptions are natural phenomena, a VEI 6 event (like Pinatubo in 1991) is extremely rare and unpredictable, classifying it as a 'black swan' event. It's not a daily concern for the public but is a standard hypothesis in disaster prediction circles.

A VEI 6 volcanic eruption is a global catastrophe (potentially causing a 'volcanic winter') with devastating effects on aviation, agriculture, and supply chains. If it occurs, it would trigger severe market panic, causing a significant drop in equities (e.g., S&P 500) while boosting safe-haven assets like Gold. Crude Oil would see volatility due to conflicting shocks of demand destruction vs. supply chain disruption.

The prediction market price implies an occurrence probability of over 11%, whereas mainstream geological consensus and historical base rates indicate the probability of a VEI 6 eruption in any single year is typically under 2%. This divergence stems from retail traders' lottery-ticket mentality and fascination with catastrophic events, rather than any actual increase in risk based on scientific observations.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026' event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Assess whether the current price for 'Yes' is inflated by recent minor volcanic activity (e.g., Iceland or Indonesia) and evaluate the liquidity risks considering the long-term resolution timeline.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Extreme Event Base Rate Verification: Search the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database to count the actual number of VEI 6+ eruptions in the last 100-200 years (e.g., Pinatubo 1991). Calculate the annual base rate of this 'black swan' geological event and compare it to the implied probability currently priced in the market for 2026 to identify any discrepancies.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026' event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Assess whether the current price for 'Yes' is inflated by recent minor volcanic activity (e.g., Iceland or Indonesia) and evaluate the liquidity risks considering the long-term resolution timeline.

Culture|$192.8k Vol|

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 98.95c. Plan Description: Forsen joining an LCK team is an extremely unlikely event in reality. Buying the 'No' option at arou...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Forsen is a former professional esports player and a current popular entertainment streamer whose Le...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a highly exotic market. Forsen is a Swedish variety streamer known for Hearthstone, and while he plays League recently, he is not at a professional level. The LCK is the premier Korean league, recruiting only top-tier domestic talent or elite imports. Linking an older Western streamer to the world's most competitive esports league is purely an internet meme or entertainment topic, defying conventional logic.

World|$231.7k Vol|

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The price of the 'Yes' option has crept up to 17 cents, yet the CDC has not designated any new varia...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

If the CDC announces a new 'Variant of Concern' (VOC), it signals an escalated pandemic risk, which is directly bullish for vaccine manufacturers (e.g., Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech) due to the potential need for new boosters. For the broader market (S&P 500), while a 2020-style crash is unlikely, it would introduce uncertainty and cause minor risk-off sentiment.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

↓3.60%

YesNo

99.95¢

0.05¢

48¢

52¢

0¢

+52¢

↑3.76%

YesNo

25¢

75¢

48¢

52¢

+23¢

0¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Hedging

US 10Y Yield

SOFR directly reflects liquidity costs in the USD short-term funding market and Fed interest rate expectations. Reaching specific thresholds typically implies structural shifts in liquidity or adjustments in rate cut/hike expectations. This creates a tradable price impact on US Treasury yields (especially rate-sensitive ones) and influences the US Dollar Index (DXY) and S&P 500 valuations by altering macroeconomic borrowing costs.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Crypto|$21.8k Vol|

631 days 14 hrs

Relay FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Relay is backed by top-tier VCs including Archetype, USV, a16z, and Khosla, suggesting an infrastruc...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a prediction on the future valuation of a specific crypto protocol (Relay). It is a standard topic for crypto insiders but obscure to the general public. It's not an absurd novelty market, but rather a typical niche financial speculation market.

March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of the $900M option spiked from 8c to 18.5c, likely due to a single large buy order sweeping thin liquidity, before dropping back to 7.5c on the 25th. March 6, 2026 - March 8, 2026, the price of the $900M option plummeted from 17.5c to 6.5c, likely due to the market correcting previous irrational pricing or thin buy orders being cleared, returning to a more reasonable probability range.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket Relay FDV page to analyze the odds spreads and liquidity depth across different valuation tiers (e.g., $300M vs $800M), and synthesize user discussions regarding Tokenomics and airdrop timelines to assess fair value and arbitrage opportunities.

Economy|$12.3k Vol|

Bank of England decision in June?

Top Undervalued

25 bps decrease(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The sum of the Yes prices across all options is currently at 148%, indicating a significant premium....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Bank of England's rate decision directly impacts the valuation of the British Pound and liquidity expectations for UK equities. A surprise hike or cut will immediately trigger significant tradable movements in the GBP/USD exchange rate and the FTSE 100 index. Additionally, because the Pound is a key component of the US Dollar Index, DXY will also experience some spillover effects.

What are the exact resolution rules for the BoE June decision? How will a 12.5 bps cut or hike be calculated?

Science|$40.5k Vol|

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of late March 2026, no VEI 6 eruption has occurred this year. According to Smithsonian GVP histor...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While volcanic eruptions are natural phenomena, a VEI 6 event (like Pinatubo in 1991) is extremely rare and unpredictable, classifying it as a 'black swan' event. It's not a daily concern for the public but is a standard hypothesis in disaster prediction circles.

A VEI 6 volcanic eruption is a global catastrophe (potentially causing a 'volcanic winter') with devastating effects on aviation, agriculture, and supply chains. If it occurs, it would trigger severe market panic, causing a significant drop in equities (e.g., S&P 500) while boosting safe-haven assets like Gold. Crude Oil would see volatility due to conflicting shocks of demand destruction vs. supply chain disruption.

The prediction market price implies an occurrence probability of over 11%, whereas mainstream geological consensus and historical base rates indicate the probability of a VEI 6 eruption in any single year is typically under 2%. This divergence stems from retail traders' lottery-ticket mentality and fascination with catastrophic events, rather than any actual increase in risk based on scientific observations.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026' event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Assess whether the current price for 'Yes' is inflated by recent minor volcanic activity (e.g., Iceland or Indonesia) and evaluate the liquidity risks considering the long-term resolution timeline.

[Historical Frequency Statistics] Extreme Event Base Rate Verification: Search the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database to count the actual number of VEI 6+ eruptions in the last 100-200 years (e.g., Pinatubo 1991). Calculate the annual base rate of this 'black swan' geological event and compare it to the implied probability currently priced in the market for 2026 to identify any discrepancies.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the 'Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026' event to analyze the order book depth and user discussions. Assess whether the current price for 'Yes' is inflated by recent minor volcanic activity (e.g., Iceland or Indonesia) and evaluate the liquidity risks considering the long-term resolution timeline.

Culture|$192.8k Vol|

Forsen to get signed by an LCK prog org by Jun 30?

Top Undervalued

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Low Risk

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' at 98.95c. Plan Description: Forsen joining an LCK team is an extremely unlikely event in reality. Buying the 'No' option at arou...

🔓 Unlock Full Arb Plan (Pro)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Forsen is a former professional esports player and a current popular entertainment streamer whose Le...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

This is a highly exotic market. Forsen is a Swedish variety streamer known for Hearthstone, and while he plays League recently, he is not at a professional level. The LCK is the premier Korean league, recruiting only top-tier domestic talent or elite imports. Linking an older Western streamer to the world's most competitive esports league is purely an internet meme or entertainment topic, defying conventional logic.

World|$231.7k Vol|

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The price of the 'Yes' option has crept up to 17 cents, yet the CDC has not designated any new varia...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

If the CDC announces a new 'Variant of Concern' (VOC), it signals an escalated pandemic risk, which is directly bullish for vaccine manufacturers (e.g., Moderna, Pfizer, BioNTech) due to the potential need for new boosters. For the broader market (S&P 500), while a 2020-style crash is unlikely, it would introduce uncertainty and cause minor risk-off sentiment.

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