All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
June 30, 2026
YesNo
September 30, 2026
YesNo
December 31, 2026
YesNo
March 31, 2026
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.13 00:29 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Current date is March 13, 2026. For the Q1 (March 31) option, with only 18 days remaining and zero TGE announcements, a launch is physically impossible given the standard 3-4 week lead time for exchanges. Its fair value is effectively 1c (margin for error). For Q2 (June 30), although market confidence has wavered dropping the price to 62c, the fundamental thesis remains: Theo's Points Season 2 ends in May, making June the prime TGE window. The current sell-off likely reflects sentiment contagion from the Q1 failure rather than structural issues, making it undervalued; fair value should be around 78c. Q3 and Q4 remain high-certainty defensive plays.
Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy 'No' for 'March 31, 2026' option
Plan Description:
This is a low-risk yield opportunity. The current 'Yes' price is ~0.8c, implying a cost of ~99.2c to buy 'No'. With only 18 days left in March and no signs of a launch, the probability of a 'No' resolution is near 100%. Earning ~0.8% absolute return over 18 days translates to an annualized yield of approx 16.3%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 16.3%
Exotics
This is a niche market question specific to a crypto project (Theo Network). For crypto natives and airdrop hunters, it is a standard query; however, for the general public, it is a highly specific and obscure vertical, ranking it as moderately exotic.
Movers
March 6, 2026 - March 11, 2026, the 'June 30, 2026' option plunged from 73c to 62c. The reason is growing market impatience as early March passed without specific news, leading to capital flight from Q2 bets, even though the fundamental thesis (Season 2 ending in May) still points to June.
Feb 26, 2026 - Mar 4, 2026, the March 31 option slowly bled from 11.5c to 7.5c, while the June 30 option saw volatility (dropping from 77c to 67.5c before rebounding to 73c). The reason is that the market continued to unwind remaining Q1 bets and shift expectations to Q2.
Feb 17, 2026 - Feb 23, 2026, the March 31 option drifted down from 18c to 12.5c, and the June 30 option corrected from 79c to 74c as February ended without an official TGE announcement.
