[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and market depth for the 2026 Wyoming Governor Election. Given the extremely low volume (~$1,595), analyze whether the price for 'Republican' accurately reflects Wyoming's deep-red voting history, check for mispricing due to illiquidity (e.g., undervalued odds), and assess slippage risk for capital entry.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest odds and market depth for the 2026 Wyoming Governor Election. Given the extremely low volume (~$1,595), analyze whether the price for 'Republican' accurately reflects Wyoming's deep-red voting history, check for mispricing due to illiquidity (e.g., undervalued odds), and assess slippage risk for capital entry.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for the final vote margins of the last five Wyoming gubernatorial elections (Republican vs. Democrat). Calculate the historical frequency of a Democratic win or close race in this state to quantify the 'baseline probability' of a Republican victory, and determine if current market odds are overreacting to potential 'black swan' risks.

AI-powered analysis for: [Awareness & Verification] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search for the final vote margins of the last five Wyoming gubernatorial elections (Republican vs. Democrat). Calculate the historical frequency of a Democratic win or close race in this state to quantify the 'baseline probability' of a Republican victory, and determine if current market odds are overreacting to potential 'black swan' risks.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the cost of locking up capital until the resolution date of November 3, 2026. Compare the annualized ROI of buying the likely 'Republican' winner versus earning risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries over the same period to determine if this long-term trade offers positive expected value.

AI-powered analysis for: [Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate the cost of locking up capital until the resolution date of November 3, 2026. Compare the annualized ROI of buying the likely 'Republican' winner versus earning risk-free yields in DeFi protocols or US Treasuries over the same period to determine if this long-term trade offers positive expected value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$737 Vol|

228 days 21 hrs

Wyoming Governor Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Republican

YesNo

94.5¢

5.5¢

99¢

1¢

+4.5¢

0¢

Democrat

YesNo

4.05¢

95.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+3¢

AI Insights:

03.04 22:22 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

Wyoming is one of the safest Republican strongholds in the US (Cook PVI R+25), with no Democrat winning the governorship since 2006. While term limits may lead to a contested GOP primary, the eventual Republican nominee is virtually guaranteed to win the general election. The current price for Republican (94.5c) trades at a slight discount to its theoretical win probability (>99%), reflecting the time value of money (liquidity premium) rather than genuine electoral risk.

Sign up to view more information

Wyoming Governor Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner