Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026?
Politics|$11.1k Vol|
time23 hrs 51 mins

Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026? - AI Found +35.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.08 04:38
Top Undervalued
+35.5¢
40-59(No)
+33.2¢
60-79(Yes)
+1.8¢
100-119(Yes)

Zelenskyy # posts April 3 - April 10, 2026? AI analysis: • +35.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
With the observation period past the halfway mark, the 40-59 and 60-79 brackets represent the most r...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Massachusetts Governor Republican Primary Winner
Politics|$10.4k Vol|
time144 days 7 hrs

Massachusetts Governor Republican Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
Mike Kennealy(No)
+0.5¢
Michael Minogue(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The race remains a tight two-way contest between Michael Minogue and Brian Shortsleeve. Minogue has ...
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Movers
March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, Brian Shortsleeve's price quickly rebounded from 32c to 45.5c, indicating that the prior sudden drop was an illiquid market sell-off, with capital quickly buying the dip to erase the losses. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, Mike Kennealy's price crashed from 26.5c back to 13c, following a spike from 13c the day prior. Such violent short-term volatility without sustained support usually implies attempted price manipulation or a market correction following misread news. March 14, 2026 - March 15, 2026, Brian Shortsleeve's price surged from 17c to 49c, while Michael Minogue dropped from 52.5c to 41.5c. This marked a regime change in the race, with the frontrunner status flipping as capital rotated heavily from Minogue to Shortsleeve. February 28, 2026 - March 3, 2026, Michael Minogue's price corrected from 72.5c down to 62c, as the market took profits following a speculative surge unsupported by news. February 9, 2026 - February 10, 2026, Mike Kennealy's price crashed from 40c to 19c, and Brian Shortsleeve dropped from 33.5c to 20c, driven by an early market bubble burst.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the Massachusetts Governor Republican Primary, analyze the bid/ask spread and depth for options like Brian Shortsleeve and Mike Kennealy, and combine this with the latest MassGOP news to assess if current odds reflect the true state of the race.
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?
Politics|$46.5k Vol|
time265 days 7 hrs

Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+32.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Maintaining the previous fair value of 55c. The current market price (~24c) still severely underesti...
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Rule Risk
There is significant ambiguity and rule risk. The rules explicitly validate past controversial instances—where Trump was arguably just scratching his face or adjusting glasses—as qualifying evidence. This lowers the bar significantly; definitive malicious intent is not required. An accidental gesture that visually resembles 'flipping the bird' could resolve the market to 'Yes', creating a trap for those expecting a clear, intentional insult.
Exotics
This is a quintessential novelty market. Betting on whether a political figure will perform a specific obscene hand gesture falls squarely into the realm of political gossip and entertainment. While consistent with Trump's controversial persona, it is far removed from standard electoral or policy forecasting.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze if the current price of 'Yes' is overvalued due to recency bias following the Jan 13th Ford plant incident. Also, review user discussions to assess the perceived risk of unintentional gestures (like scratching) being misidentified as 'flipping the bird' under the resolution rules.
SC-01 House Election Winner
Politics|$32.5k Vol|
time207 days 7 hrs

SC-01 House Election Winner

Top Undervalued
+17¢
Democratic Party(No)
+17¢
Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While Nancy Mace's gubernatorial run creates an Open Seat, which typically introduces uncertainty, t...
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Divergence
Mainstream rating agencies (like the Cook Political Report) generally classify SC-01 as a Solid/Safe Republican district, implying a win probability exceeding 90%. However, the prediction market currently prices the Republicans at only 75c. This indicates a significant divergence between market pricing and mainstream political consensus, with the market notably overestimating the Democrats' chances of flipping the seat.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the SC-01 House Election page to analyze the current bid/ask spread and depth (considering the relatively low $21k volume). Integrate the final ruling of the redistricting lawsuit (Alexander v. SC NAACP) to assess whether the current Republican/Democrat pricing fairly reflects the district's structural advantage, and identify any clear arbitrage or risk premium opportunities.
Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?
Culture|$18.5k Vol|
time265 days 7 hrs

Rihanna confirmed pregnant in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Market prices have corrected from previous highs (in the 60-70c range) to the current coin-flip stat...
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Exotics
This is a typical celebrity gossip prediction market. While not a mainstream political or economic issue, Rihanna is a superstar whose personal life attracts immense public attention. Topics like celebrity pregnancies are relatively common in prediction markets, placing this in the medium range of novelty.
Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 25, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' dropped sharply from 62.5c to 49.5c. This was a market correction of previous speculative spikes, as the lack of substantive pregnancy evidence caused the hype generated by earlier social media comments to cool down rapidly. March 5, 2026 - March 6, 2026: The price of Option_'Yes' rallied from 68c to 77.5c before retracing to 74c. This spike was likely a delayed reaction to her 'Bet!' comment regarding a 2026 pregnancy going viral again on short-form video platforms in late February, or speculative buying triggered by a March 5th media article discussing her 'maternity style.' However, prices softened slightly since the breaking news of the shooting incident on March 8.
AI Analysis
[Mandatory Task] Visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event. Given the low volume of ~$1,085, analyze the Order Book's bid-ask spread and depth. Assess whether current odds reflect true market consensus or pricing inefficiency due to illiquidity, and determine if any arbitrage opportunities exist.
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Science|$103.2k Vol|
time265 days 7 hrs

1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+4.1¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
5¢
Arbitrage
7.4%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: Since the true probability of a 1-megaton meteor impact is extremely low (far below 1%), buying the ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Astronomically and statistically, a 1-megaton (1000 kt) TNT equivalent meteor impact is an extremely...
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Exotics
This is a typical 'low-probability catastrophe' market. While asteroid impacts are a serious scientific topic, betting on a specific yield and year for a meteor strike is considered relatively niche and novel in mainstream prediction markets.
Divergence
The market price implies an approximate 5% probability of occurrence, whereas the mainstream astronomical consensus places the annualized probability of such a magnitude event well below 1%. This significant divergence stems from retail investors in prediction markets overpaying for extreme tail risks (longshot bias).
AI Analysis
[Order Book & Fundamentals] Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book and user sentiment, assessing if the 'Yes' odds are overpriced due to long-shot bias, and evaluate the deviation between the scientific probability of a 1-megaton meteor strike and the current market price given the remaining months of 2026.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
40-59
YesNo
95.5¢
4.5¢
60¢
40¢
0¢
+35.5¢
60-79
YesNo
1.8¢
98.2¢
35¢
65¢
+33.2¢
0¢

Expand to view all 10 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
Resolution relies heavily on Polymarket's proprietary tracker (xtracker) rather than the visible count on X. Rules state that briefly deleted posts count if caught by the tracker, and replies are excluded unless recorded on the main feed by the tracker. This creates potential discrepancies between manual counts and final resolution data.
Exotics
Predicting the exact number of X posts a national leader makes during a specific future week is a highly niche and gamified novelty market. Ordinary people would rarely proactively forecast such an arbitrary metric.
Movers
April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 120-139 option spiked abnormally from 1.95c to 40.35c before settling, likely an anomaly caused by slippage or manipulation in a low-liquidity market. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option rose from 42.5c to 61c, as the accumulating post count strongly favored this lower bracket. April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, the price of the 60-79 option dropped from 69.5c to 36c, due to a slower-than-expected posting rate making higher brackets less likely. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option dropped from 19c to 9c, as accumulating real-time tracking data initially pushed expectations beyond this bracket's limit. April 3, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the 20-39 option plummeted from 49.9c to 2.55c, because a surge in posts during the first two days eliminated the possibility of an extremely low count. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option surged from 0.3c to 23.4c, due to severe slippage in an illiquid order book or a fat-finger market buy. April 4, 2026 - April 5, 2026, the price of the 40-59 option surged from 8.5c to 30.5c, as early pacing data clarified expectations, drawing capital to the most probable ranges. April 4, 2026 - April 4, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option spiked from 1.9c to 30.2c before dropping back, typical of a large order impact in a low-liquidity market. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 3.25c to 25.05c, likely due to poor liquidity resulting in mispricing or a large market order. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option rose from 22.7c to 25.05c. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the <20 option plummeted from 26c to 5.5c, reflecting the market's realization that an extremely low posting frequency is highly improbable.

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