2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner
Politics|$33.5m Vol|
time31 days 6 hrs

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner - AI Found +21.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.01 19:51
Top Undervalued
+21.5¢
Chong Won-oh(No)
+16.5¢
Oh Se-hoon(Yes)
+0.9¢
Ahn Cheol-soo(Yes)

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner AI analysis: • +21.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
The market pricing for DPK candidate Chong Won-oh (around 86.5c) remains severely overestimated. Alt...
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Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?
Weather|$54.3k Vol|
time18 hrs 11 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+1¢
28°C(No)
+1¢
27°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and other meteorological agencies o...
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Movers
May 1, 2026 - May 2, 2026: The price of the 30°C option plummeted from 27c to 8.5c, and the 29°C option dropped from 48c to 35.5c, while the 28°C option surged from 22.5c to 43c. The reason is that as the resolution date approaches, updated weather forecasts confirmed heavier rain and cloud cover, prompting the market to discount the likelihood of higher temperatures and shift the peak probability range down to 28°C.
AI Analysis
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?
Weather|$35.9k Vol|
time18 hrs 11 mins

Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 3?

Top Undervalued
+17¢
23°C(No)
+9.5¢
22°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecast data, the highest temperature at Tokyo (Haneda Airport) on May ...
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Exotics
Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city is a somewhat niche and novelty topic for retail prediction markets. However, it is not absurd, as weather is scientifically measurable and weather derivatives are common in professional fields.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Chong Won-oh
YesNo
86.5¢
13.5¢
65¢
35¢
+21.5¢
Oh Se-hoon
YesNo
13.5¢
86.5¢
30¢
70¢
+16.5¢

Expand to view all 14 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Divergence
The market currently assigns an extremely high win probability (nearly 87%) to the DPK candidate, while giving incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon only about 13.5%. This diverges significantly from mainstream political analysis, which views Seoul as a highly competitive district. An incumbent mayor with incumbency advantage and solid conservative backing is unlikely to face such a lopsided defeat in the actual general election. This market skew is likely an overreaction to the opposition party's recent strong performance in parliamentary elections, ignoring the specific dynamics of local elections.

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