All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Chong Won-oh
YesNo
Oh Se-hoon
YesNo
Cho Kuk
YesNo
Cho Eun-hee
YesNo
Park Ju-min
YesNo
Ahn Cheol-soo
YesNo
Park Hong-keun
YesNo
Jeon Hyun-heui
YesNo
Seo Young-kyo
YesNo
Hong Ihk-pyo
YesNo
Park Yong-jin
YesNo
Na Kyung-won
YesNo
Han Dong-hoon
YesNo
Kang Hoon-sik
YesNo
AI Insights:
14 minutes ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Fundamental reversal. Incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon officially registered his candidacy on March 17, 2026, invalidating the previous assumption that he was 'out' due to missing the initial nomination deadline. Recent polls (e.g., Kstat/JoongAng) indicate a neck-and-neck race between Oh Se-hoon (approx. 37%-40%) and Chong Won-oh (approx. 34%-40%). The market currently prices Oh (~11c) based on outdated panic about his withdrawal, while Chong's price (~85c) incorrectly implies a coronation with no viable opposition. Given Seoul's political landscape and incumbent advantage, Oh's fair value should drastically correct to around 45c.
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Divergence
Extreme divergence. The market price implies a win probability of only 11.5% for incumbent Mayor Oh Se-hoon, as if he has withdrawn. However, mainstream media (The Korea Herald, JoongAng Ilbo, etc.) confirmed that he resolved internal party conflicts and officially registered on March 17. Furthermore, multiple polls show him polling even with Chong Won-oh (approx. 37% vs 34%) in hypothetical matchups. The market pricing is significantly lagging the core fact of 'Oh's official candidacy,' creating a massive space for value correction.
