All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
1600.00+
YesNo
1450.00–1499.99
YesNo
1350.00–1399.99
YesNo
1300.00–1349.99
YesNo
1250.00–1299.99
YesNo
1550.00–1599.99
YesNo
1400.00–1449.99
YesNo
1500.00–1549.99
YesNo
<1250.00
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.12 05:02 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
It is currently March 12, 2026. Given the BCRA's crawling peg mechanism (historically ~2% monthly) and the spot rate already nearing 1500 ARS in early 2026, mathematical models strongly suggest the year-end rate will far exceed 1600 ARS (even a conservative 1% monthly crawl breaches 1600). The extreme volatility on March 5th (where '1600+' briefly crashed to 15c before recovering) suggests a liquidity event or panic selling rather than a fundamental shift. While the current market price of 60c reflects fears of a sudden fixed exchange rate policy (Tablecita) or dollarization, continued devaluation remains the path of least resistance due to reserve constraints. Thus, '1600.00+' remains significantly undervalued.
Sign up to view more information
Hedging
GGAL
YPF
Argentina's official exchange rate is largely determined by government policy (e.g., crawling peg or discrete devaluation). The outcome directly impacts the USD-denominated valuation and solvency of Argentine assets (such as banking stock GGAL and energy stock YPF). An unexpected sharp devaluation or artificial peg would cause a significant tradable shock to these ADR prices.
