Bitcoin above ___ on April 13? - AI Mispricing Alert

Crypto|$19.0k Vol|

6 days 18 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on April 13? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+2.9¢

68,000(No)

+2.3¢

66,000(No)

+0.7¢

70,000(No)

Bitcoin above ___ on April 13? AI analysis: • +2.9¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$58.0k Vol|

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on recent market trends and historical context, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has sign...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While the Strait of Hormuz is a well-known geopolitical and energy chokepoint, predicting the exact numerical range of transiting ships based on a specific IMF database is a niche and specialized macro metric tracking task.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy transport chokepoint. A resolution showing a sharp decline in ship transits would typically indicate a severe geopolitical crisis or blockade in the Middle East. This would trigger a massive spike in Crude Oil prices, a flight to safe-haven assets like Gold, and negative shocks to broad equities like the S&P 500. This market serves as a direct hedge against geopolitical black swans.

From April 3, 2026, to April 6, 2026, the price of the 0-10 option plummeted from 46.5c to 24.5c, while the 10-20 option surged from 17c to 39.5c, indicating market expectations of a slight recovery in shipping volumes. From March 31, 2026, to April 3, 2026, the price of the 0-10 option surged from 18c to 46.5c, reflecting ongoing concerns about shipping stagnation.

Explain the IMF Portwatch resolution criteria and the 7-day moving average calculation for Strait of Hormuz ship transits like I'm 5.

Sports|$327.2k Vol|

NBA Worst Record

Top Undervalued

Washington Wizards(No)

Brooklyn Nets(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest NBA standings as of April 5-6, 2026, the Washington Wizards hold the worst r...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Washington Wizards' price surged from 61.0c to 85.0c as the team continued to lose, virtually locking in the worst record in the league with only a few games remaining. Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Indiana Pacers' price fell from 25.7c to 14.0c because the Wizards expanded their lead for the worst record, lowering the Pacers' probability. Apr 3, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Brooklyn Nets' price plummeted from 19.8c to 2.7c, indicating recent wins or the Wizards' continued losses pushed their probability of finishing last close to zero. Mar 25, 2026 - Apr 4, 2026, The Indiana Pacers' price fluctuated significantly, rising to 56.6c before falling to 25.8c, reflecting the impact of game results on the tanking race. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, The Washington Wizards' price plummeted from 45.5c to 14.5c, indicating victories at the time that significantly reduced their chances of finishing with the worst record.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Regarding the clause 'If multiple teams finish with identical records, the league’s tiebreaker rules will be used', please explain in the simplest terms how the NBA's Tiebreaker rules function in the context of the 'Worst Record'. (Note: Distinguish between the Draft Lottery's split-odds rule and the Regular Season Standings' Head-to-Head rules—specifically, if two teams have the exact same record, which one is legally deemed 'worse' by the rules?)

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.

Sports|$586.4k Vol|

NBA Atlantic Division Winner

Top Undervalued

New York Knicks(Yes)

Boston Celtics(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the 2025-2026 NBA regular season enters its final week, the Boston Celtics hold a dominant lead i...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the NBA Atlantic Division Winner, analyze the bid/ask depth and latest traded prices for the Celtics, Knicks, and 76ers, and combine this with current NBA regular season standings (GB) to update the assessment of fair value and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Sports|$607.2k Vol|

NBA Steals Per Game Leader

Top Undervalued

Alex Caruso(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only a few days left in the regular season, Ausar Thompson, whose season ended due to injury, h...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Based on the event's specific tie-breaker rule (ties resolve to the player with more games played), calculate the "Catch-Up Math": If the runner-up trails by 0.1 SPG with ~20 games remaining, what average must they sustain to overtake? Does the current leader hold a "Games Played" advantage that serves as a defensive buffer against a tie?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official NBA.com steals per game (SPG) leaderboards to compare the statistical reality against current Polymarket odds. Analyze whether the current leader's margin (e.g., vs. Victor Wembanyama or Dyson Daniels) is mathematically safe given the remaining schedule, and assess the order book depth for slippage risks.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Based on the event's specific tie-breaker rule (ties resolve to the player with more games played), calculate the "Catch-Up Math": If the runner-up trails by 0.1 SPG with ~20 games remaining, what average must they sustain to overtake? Does the current leader hold a "Games Played" advantage that serves as a defensive buffer against a tie?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official NBA.com steals per game (SPG) leaderboards to compare the statistical reality against current Polymarket odds. Analyze whether the current leader's margin (e.g., vs. Victor Wembanyama or Dyson Daniels) is mathematically safe given the remaining schedule, and assess the order book depth for slippage risks.

Politics|$182.4k Vol|

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner

Top Undervalued

Rafael López Aliaga(No)

Keiko Fujimori(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than a week remaining until the first round of voting, Keiko Fujimori's lead is solid. Her...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major gold producer. The election outcome directly dictates mining policy, taxation, and the environment for foreign investment. If a radical left or anti-mining candidate (like certain figures listed) leads the first round, it would trigger fears of nationalization or strikes, causing significant volatility in the Peru ETF (EPU) and miners with heavy Peruvian exposure (e.g., Southern Copper, SCCO). Copper prices might also see minor impact due to supply disruption fears.

2026-04-04 - 2026-04-06, Rafael López Aliaga's price dropped from 13c to 5c, driven by weak late-stage campaign performance and voter migration to Keiko Fujimori. 2026-04-03 - 2026-04-06, Keiko Fujimori's price surged from 47.5c to 64.5c, as her solid base continues to consolidate her lead just days before the election. 2026-04-03 - 2026-04-06, Rafael López Aliaga's price dropped from 19.5c to 6.5c, driven by weak late-stage campaign performance and voter migration to Keiko Fujimori. 2026-04-02 - 2026-04-05, Carlos Álvarez's price surged from 6c to 16.85c, likely due to a recent rise in polling support or positive feedback on campaign activities. 2026-03-27 - 2026-03-30, Rafael López Aliaga's price fluctuated from 33.5c to 38.5c, dipping as low as 27.5c, indicating uncertainty in his prior frontrunner status. 2026-03-27 - 2026-03-30, Roberto Sánchez Palomino's price swung massively between 35.15c and 25.4c, far above his 4.1c mark on March 26, suggesting significant favorable news or capital influx.

Retrieve the latest campaign updates for the Peru 2026 General Election, specifically checking polling trends for top candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori; visit the Polymarket page to evaluate the thin order book (Volume: ~$2) and determine if fair value exists or if the market is currently illiquid and inactive.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

68,000

YesNo

71¢

37¢

60.1¢

39.9¢

0¢

+2.9¢

66,000

YesNo

87¢

21¢

76.7¢

23.3¢

0¢

+2.3¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Last Week High Breakout Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakout: whether the price breaks above last week highest price (0/1) Positive Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0100, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0120, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, 0.0050, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0120, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0220, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Geopolitics|$58.0k Vol|

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of April?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on recent market trends and historical context, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has sign...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

While the Strait of Hormuz is a well-known geopolitical and energy chokepoint, predicting the exact numerical range of transiting ships based on a specific IMF database is a niche and specialized macro metric tracking task.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical energy transport chokepoint. A resolution showing a sharp decline in ship transits would typically indicate a severe geopolitical crisis or blockade in the Middle East. This would trigger a massive spike in Crude Oil prices, a flight to safe-haven assets like Gold, and negative shocks to broad equities like the S&P 500. This market serves as a direct hedge against geopolitical black swans.

From April 3, 2026, to April 6, 2026, the price of the 0-10 option plummeted from 46.5c to 24.5c, while the 10-20 option surged from 17c to 39.5c, indicating market expectations of a slight recovery in shipping volumes. From March 31, 2026, to April 3, 2026, the price of the 0-10 option surged from 18c to 46.5c, reflecting ongoing concerns about shipping stagnation.

Explain the IMF Portwatch resolution criteria and the 7-day moving average calculation for Strait of Hormuz ship transits like I'm 5.

Sports|$327.2k Vol|

NBA Worst Record

Top Undervalued

Washington Wizards(No)

Brooklyn Nets(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest NBA standings as of April 5-6, 2026, the Washington Wizards hold the worst r...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Washington Wizards' price surged from 61.0c to 85.0c as the team continued to lose, virtually locking in the worst record in the league with only a few games remaining. Apr 4, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Indiana Pacers' price fell from 25.7c to 14.0c because the Wizards expanded their lead for the worst record, lowering the Pacers' probability. Apr 3, 2026 - Apr 6, 2026, The Brooklyn Nets' price plummeted from 19.8c to 2.7c, indicating recent wins or the Wizards' continued losses pushed their probability of finishing last close to zero. Mar 25, 2026 - Apr 4, 2026, The Indiana Pacers' price fluctuated significantly, rising to 56.6c before falling to 25.8c, reflecting the impact of game results on the tanking race. Mar 21, 2026 - Mar 28, 2026, The Washington Wizards' price plummeted from 45.5c to 14.5c, indicating victories at the time that significantly reduced their chances of finishing with the worst record.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.

[Category 1: Awareness & Verification] [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Regarding the clause 'If multiple teams finish with identical records, the league’s tiebreaker rules will be used', please explain in the simplest terms how the NBA's Tiebreaker rules function in the context of the 'Worst Record'. (Note: Distinguish between the Draft Lottery's split-odds rule and the Regular Season Standings' Head-to-Head rules—specifically, if two teams have the exact same record, which one is legally deemed 'worse' by the rules?)

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Based on the Remaining Strength of Schedule (SOS) and 'tanking' strategies, analyze potential catalysts that could cause significant odds volatility within the next 48 hours to a week. Focus on: which bottom-tier team faces opponents with the highest winning percentage (making losses more likely), and have any key stars (e.g., Kuzma, Cunningham) been officially declared 'out for the season' or resting indefinitely due to minor injuries?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Combine the latest official NBA regular season standings (reverse standings) to compare the odds distribution of the top contenders for 'Worst Record' (e.g., Pistons, Wizards, Spurs) on Polymarket. Analyze the liquidity depth of the current Order Book and, combined with the Games Back (GB) gap, determine if the market is overreacting or lagging in pricing any specific team.

Sports|$586.4k Vol|

NBA Atlantic Division Winner

Top Undervalued

New York Knicks(Yes)

Boston Celtics(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the 2025-2026 NBA regular season enters its final week, the Boston Celtics hold a dominant lead i...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for the NBA Atlantic Division Winner, analyze the bid/ask depth and latest traded prices for the Celtics, Knicks, and 76ers, and combine this with current NBA regular season standings (GB) to update the assessment of fair value and potential arbitrage opportunities.

Sports|$607.2k Vol|

NBA Steals Per Game Leader

Top Undervalued

Alex Caruso(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With only a few days left in the regular season, Ausar Thompson, whose season ended due to injury, h...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Based on the event's specific tie-breaker rule (ties resolve to the player with more games played), calculate the "Catch-Up Math": If the runner-up trails by 0.1 SPG with ~20 games remaining, what average must they sustain to overtake? Does the current leader hold a "Games Played" advantage that serves as a defensive buffer against a tie?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official NBA.com steals per game (SPG) leaderboards to compare the statistical reality against current Polymarket odds. Analyze whether the current leader's margin (e.g., vs. Victor Wembanyama or Dyson Daniels) is mathematically safe given the remaining schedule, and assess the order book depth for slippage risks.

[Category 2: Analysis & Reasoning] [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Based on the event's specific tie-breaker rule (ties resolve to the player with more games played), calculate the "Catch-Up Math": If the runner-up trails by 0.1 SPG with ~20 games remaining, what average must they sustain to overtake? Does the current leader hold a "Games Played" advantage that serves as a defensive buffer against a tie?

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest official NBA.com steals per game (SPG) leaderboards to compare the statistical reality against current Polymarket odds. Analyze whether the current leader's margin (e.g., vs. Victor Wembanyama or Dyson Daniels) is mathematically safe given the remaining schedule, and assess the order book depth for slippage risks.

Politics|$182.4k Vol|

Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner

Top Undervalued

Rafael López Aliaga(No)

Keiko Fujimori(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than a week remaining until the first round of voting, Keiko Fujimori's lead is solid. Her...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer and a major gold producer. The election outcome directly dictates mining policy, taxation, and the environment for foreign investment. If a radical left or anti-mining candidate (like certain figures listed) leads the first round, it would trigger fears of nationalization or strikes, causing significant volatility in the Peru ETF (EPU) and miners with heavy Peruvian exposure (e.g., Southern Copper, SCCO). Copper prices might also see minor impact due to supply disruption fears.

2026-04-04 - 2026-04-06, Rafael López Aliaga's price dropped from 13c to 5c, driven by weak late-stage campaign performance and voter migration to Keiko Fujimori. 2026-04-03 - 2026-04-06, Keiko Fujimori's price surged from 47.5c to 64.5c, as her solid base continues to consolidate her lead just days before the election. 2026-04-03 - 2026-04-06, Rafael López Aliaga's price dropped from 19.5c to 6.5c, driven by weak late-stage campaign performance and voter migration to Keiko Fujimori. 2026-04-02 - 2026-04-05, Carlos Álvarez's price surged from 6c to 16.85c, likely due to a recent rise in polling support or positive feedback on campaign activities. 2026-03-27 - 2026-03-30, Rafael López Aliaga's price fluctuated from 33.5c to 38.5c, dipping as low as 27.5c, indicating uncertainty in his prior frontrunner status. 2026-03-27 - 2026-03-30, Roberto Sánchez Palomino's price swung massively between 35.15c and 25.4c, far above his 4.1c mark on March 26, suggesting significant favorable news or capital influx.

Retrieve the latest campaign updates for the Peru 2026 General Election, specifically checking polling trends for top candidates like Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori; visit the Polymarket page to evaluate the thin order book (Volume: ~$2) and determine if fair value exists or if the market is currently illiquid and inactive.

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