Bitcoin above ___ on March 30? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$22.7k Vol|

6 days 13 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on March 30? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+11¢

66,000(No)

+10.5¢

64,000(No)

+9.6¢

68,000(No)

Bitcoin above ___ on March 30? AI analysis: • +11¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$1.1m Vol|

Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued

Tisza 0-3%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the price of 'Tisza 9%+' has rebounded slightly (back to 25c), our fair value analysis sugg...

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Market pricing suggests a ~72% probability of Tisza winning the popular vote (sum of all Tisza options), and crucially, prices a landslide victory of >9% (25%) significantly higher than a narrow 0-3% win (13.5%). This diverges from conventional political analysis. While polls may show Tisza leading, experts typically predict a much tighter ('nail-biter') race against an entrenched incumbent with vast resources. The market is currently overly optimistic about a 'landslide' scenario, discounting the effect of shy voters and mobilization machinery in narrowing the gap.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for this illiquid event ($31.24 volume), analyze the bid-ask spread, and compare the odds for 'Fidesz-KDNP' vs. 'Tisza' against recent polls from Medián and Závecz Research to assess fair value and liquidity risk.

Politics|$1.1m Vol|

223 days 21 hrs

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Republican Party (Yes) + Buy Democratic Party (Yes) Plan Description: The sum of current Republican Yes price (51.5c) and Democratic Yes price (47.5c) is 99c, below the 1...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Although 2026 is a midterm election year, which historically favors the opposition party (Democrats)...

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Senate control directly dictates the feasibility of the President's legislative agenda (e.g., tax and spending bills). An unexpected result (e.g., breaking an expected gridlock for a single-party sweep) would significantly alter fiscal policy expectations, driving volatility in US Treasury yields and equities. Generally, markets prefer gridlock to avoid radical policy shifts; a sweep could trigger sharp repricing in specific sectors like energy, healthcare, or tech.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing (Republicans ~51.5%) implies a 'coin-flip' race. However, the 'fundamental consensus' among election analysts (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) typically holds that while the midterm environment favors Democrats, the 2026 Senate map offers Republicans a structural defensive advantage (GOP seats are mostly in safe red states, while Dems defend swing states). The market appears to be pricing based on a simple 'midterm penalty' heuristic, overlooking the specific structural disadvantages of the map.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months from now), calculate the expected Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying and holding the current favorite. Compare this against the risk-free yields of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to quantitatively assess if locking up capital for 8 months is justified by the potential excess return.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the latest bid/ask depth and spread for 'Democratic vs. Republican Party'. Combine this with the fundamentals of the 2026 Senate Map—specifically analyzing which party is defending more vulnerable swing seats in this cycle—to reassess if the current odds reflect fair value and check for slippage risks due to liquidity.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months from now), calculate the expected Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying and holding the current favorite. Compare this against the risk-free yields of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to quantitatively assess if locking up capital for 8 months is justified by the potential excess return.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the latest bid/ask depth and spread for 'Democratic vs. Republican Party'. Combine this with the fundamentals of the 2026 Senate Map—specifically analyzing which party is defending more vulnerable swing seats in this cycle—to reassess if the current odds reflect fair value and check for slippage risks due to liquidity.

Politics|$3.1m Vol|

281 days 21 hrs

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Top Undervalued

No Next PM in 2026(Yes)

Angela Rayner(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Labour holds a commanding parliamentary majority, and Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister is s...

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Extreme divergence. Mainstream political analysis and media (BBC, Sky News, Politico) report no signals suggesting Keir Starmer's position is unstable or that he is planning to resign; the Labour government is in a stable early-term phase. Yet, the prediction market is pricing in a >60% chance of Starmer leaving within the next 18 months. Furthermore, the combined implied probability of ~20% for Nigel Farage (Reform leader) and Ed Miliband (Cabinet Minister but not a leadership contender) is absurd under the Westminster system.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming the current odds for 'No Next PM in 2026' suggest a high probability of winning, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of holding this position until December 31, 2026. Compare this against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols to determine if locking up capital for the remaining months offers a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the 'Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?' market. Analyze the spread between 'No Next PM in 2026' and top contenders (e.g., Kemi Badenoch, Wes Streeting). Assess whether the current odds overprice the risk of the current PM resigning or facing a leadership challenge given the current political stability.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming the current odds for 'No Next PM in 2026' suggest a high probability of winning, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of holding this position until December 31, 2026. Compare this against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols to determine if locking up capital for the remaining months offers a positive expected value.

World|$1.2m Vol|

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 24, 2026, despite reports of a launched 'Spring-Summer offensive' and increased Russian ...

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Significant divergence exists between market pricing and fundamentals. The 9.5c price for 'June 30' implies a ~10% probability, which conflicts with ISW's assessment that Russia is 'unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026' and the reality of recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Mainstream military analysis sees the Kupiansk line as stable, while the market appears to be overpricing the tail risk of the 'summer offensive.'

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest situation on the Kupiansk front and ISW map updates, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth behind the $1.16M volume, and assess whether current odds fairly reflect the speed of Russian advances and risks of a negotiated settlement.

Weather|$1.1m Vol|

281 days 21 hrs

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 24, 2026, with only 1 magnitude 7.0+ earthquake recorded in Q1, the annual projection mu...

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This is a scientific statistical question. While not a daily topic for the general public, it is standard data for disaster risk analysis and geology enthusiasts, placing it in the medium exotic category.

[Mandatory Task] Access the USGS official database to count the exact number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes that have occurred YTD in 2026. Combine this with the Polymarket order book to compare the current run rate against the historical annual average (approx. 14-16) and analyze if the current odds distribution accurately reflects the statistical probability for the remaining time.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

66,000

YesNo

83¢

17¢

72¢

28¢

0¢

+11¢

64,000

YesNo

91.75¢

8.25¢

81.3¢

18.7¢

0¢

+10.5¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 2: Weekly Price Change, 0.0450, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0160, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0100, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$1.1m Vol|

Hungary Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued

Tisza 0-3%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the price of 'Tisza 9%+' has rebounded slightly (back to 25c), our fair value analysis sugg...

Log in to see more

Market pricing suggests a ~72% probability of Tisza winning the popular vote (sum of all Tisza options), and crucially, prices a landslide victory of >9% (25%) significantly higher than a narrow 0-3% win (13.5%). This diverges from conventional political analysis. While polls may show Tisza leading, experts typically predict a much tighter ('nail-biter') race against an entrenched incumbent with vast resources. The market is currently overly optimistic about a 'landslide' scenario, discounting the effect of shy voters and mobilization machinery in narrowing the gap.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest order book data for this illiquid event ($31.24 volume), analyze the bid-ask spread, and compare the odds for 'Fidesz-KDNP' vs. 'Tisza' against recent polls from Medián and Závecz Research to assess fair value and liquidity risk.

Politics|$1.1m Vol|

223 days 21 hrs

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Republican Party(Yes)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Republican Party (Yes) + Buy Democratic Party (Yes) Plan Description: The sum of current Republican Yes price (51.5c) and Democratic Yes price (47.5c) is 99c, below the 1...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

Although 2026 is a midterm election year, which historically favors the opposition party (Democrats)...

Log in to see more

Senate control directly dictates the feasibility of the President's legislative agenda (e.g., tax and spending bills). An unexpected result (e.g., breaking an expected gridlock for a single-party sweep) would significantly alter fiscal policy expectations, driving volatility in US Treasury yields and equities. Generally, markets prefer gridlock to avoid radical policy shifts; a sweep could trigger sharp repricing in specific sectors like energy, healthcare, or tech.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing (Republicans ~51.5%) implies a 'coin-flip' race. However, the 'fundamental consensus' among election analysts (e.g., Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball) typically holds that while the midterm environment favors Democrats, the 2026 Senate map offers Republicans a structural defensive advantage (GOP seats are mostly in safe red states, while Dems defend swing states). The market appears to be pricing based on a simple 'midterm penalty' heuristic, overlooking the specific structural disadvantages of the map.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months from now), calculate the expected Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying and holding the current favorite. Compare this against the risk-free yields of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to quantitatively assess if locking up capital for 8 months is justified by the potential excess return.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the latest bid/ask depth and spread for 'Democratic vs. Republican Party'. Combine this with the fundamentals of the 2026 Senate Map—specifically analyzing which party is defending more vulnerable swing seats in this cycle—to reassess if the current odds reflect fair value and check for slippage risks due to liquidity.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Given the resolution date of November 3, 2026 (approx. 8 months from now), calculate the expected Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of buying and holding the current favorite. Compare this against the risk-free yields of stablecoins in DeFi protocols (e.g., Aave/Compound) to quantitatively assess if locking up capital for 8 months is justified by the potential excess return.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the latest bid/ask depth and spread for 'Democratic vs. Republican Party'. Combine this with the fundamentals of the 2026 Senate Map—specifically analyzing which party is defending more vulnerable swing seats in this cycle—to reassess if the current odds reflect fair value and check for slippage risks due to liquidity.

Politics|$3.1m Vol|

281 days 21 hrs

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Top Undervalued

No Next PM in 2026(Yes)

Angela Rayner(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Labour holds a commanding parliamentary majority, and Keir Starmer's position as Prime Minister is s...

Log in to see more

Extreme divergence. Mainstream political analysis and media (BBC, Sky News, Politico) report no signals suggesting Keir Starmer's position is unstable or that he is planning to resign; the Labour government is in a stable early-term phase. Yet, the prediction market is pricing in a >60% chance of Starmer leaving within the next 18 months. Furthermore, the combined implied probability of ~20% for Nigel Farage (Reform leader) and Ed Miliband (Cabinet Minister but not a leadership contender) is absurd under the Westminster system.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming the current odds for 'No Next PM in 2026' suggest a high probability of winning, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of holding this position until December 31, 2026. Compare this against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols to determine if locking up capital for the remaining months offers a positive expected value.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data for the 'Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?' market. Analyze the spread between 'No Next PM in 2026' and top contenders (e.g., Kemi Badenoch, Wes Streeting). Assess whether the current odds overprice the risk of the current PM resigning or facing a leadership challenge given the current political stability.

[Category 3: Decision & Action] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Assuming the current odds for 'No Next PM in 2026' suggest a high probability of winning, calculate the Annualized Percentage Yield (APY) of holding this position until December 31, 2026. Compare this against risk-free stablecoin yields in DeFi protocols to determine if locking up capital for the remaining months offers a positive expected value.

World|$1.2m Vol|

Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 24, 2026, despite reports of a launched 'Spring-Summer offensive' and increased Russian ...

Log in to see more

Significant divergence exists between market pricing and fundamentals. The 9.5c price for 'June 30' implies a ~10% probability, which conflicts with ISW's assessment that Russia is 'unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026' and the reality of recent Ukrainian counterattacks. Mainstream military analysis sees the Kupiansk line as stable, while the market appears to be overpricing the tail risk of the 'summer offensive.'

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest situation on the Kupiansk front and ISW map updates, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the order book depth behind the $1.16M volume, and assess whether current odds fairly reflect the speed of Russian advances and risks of a negotiated settlement.

Weather|$1.1m Vol|

281 days 21 hrs

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As of March 24, 2026, with only 1 magnitude 7.0+ earthquake recorded in Q1, the annual projection mu...

Log in to see more

This is a scientific statistical question. While not a daily topic for the general public, it is standard data for disaster risk analysis and geology enthusiasts, placing it in the medium exotic category.

[Mandatory Task] Access the USGS official database to count the exact number of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes that have occurred YTD in 2026. Combine this with the Polymarket order book to compare the current run rate against the historical annual average (approx. 14-16) and analyze if the current odds distribution accurately reflects the statistical probability for the remaining time.

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Bitcoin above ___ on March 30? - AI Found +11¢ Mispricing