Bitcoin above ___ on May 17? - AI Found +30.1¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$20.2k Vol|

6 days 15 hrs

Bitcoin above ___ on May 17? - AI Found +30.1¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+30.1¢

84,000(Yes)

+28.6¢

82,000(Yes)

+22.3¢

86,000(Yes)

Bitcoin above ___ on May 17? AI analysis: • +30.1¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Esports|$3.3m Vol|

233 days 23 hrs

LoL: LCK 2026 Season Winner

Top Undervalued

Hanwha Life Esports(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest prediction market data, Gen.G Esports remains stable at 48c, maintaining expecta...

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Trump|$1.3m Vol|

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days remaining until the May 15 deadline, the 'May 15' option price remains stable ...

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Kevin Warsh is generally perceived as more hawkish or possessing different monetary policy inclinations compared to the incumbent (Powell). His confirmation would signal a potential pivot in future Fed policy (e.g., a more aggressive stance on inflation or deregulation), directly impacting US 10Y Yields and the Dollar Index (DXY). For equities, a hawkish chair is typically bearish, though his deregulation stance could favor the banking sector. This event is significant enough to trigger a market repricing.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Lock-up Calculation: Given the resolution date of May 15, 2026, this is a long-duration prediction. Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI at current odds against the annualized yields of DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries over the same period to determine if the trade still holds positive Expected Value (EV) after accounting for the time value of money.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the depth and bid-ask spread of the current $234k volume, assessing slippage risk for large entries; concurrently, gather the latest reporting on Kevin Warsh's standing with Trump compared to other potential candidates like Scott Bessent to judge if the current market odds reasonably reflect the nomination probability.

[Key Timeline Check] Senate Confirmation Process & Deadline Pitfall: Retrieve the historical average duration from nomination to Senate confirmation for past Fed Chairs (e.g., Powell, Yellen). Critically analyze if a nomination in early 2026 could face Senate procedural delays pushing the vote past the strict "May 15, 2026" deadline, causing the contract to resolve to "No" even if Warsh is eventually confirmed.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Lock-up Calculation: Given the resolution date of May 15, 2026, this is a long-duration prediction. Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI at current odds against the annualized yields of DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries over the same period to determine if the trade still holds positive Expected Value (EV) after accounting for the time value of money.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the depth and bid-ask spread of the current $234k volume, assessing slippage risk for large entries; concurrently, gather the latest reporting on Kevin Warsh's standing with Trump compared to other potential candidates like Scott Bessent to judge if the current market odds reasonably reflect the nomination probability.

Oil|$12.5m Vol|

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days remaining until the May 15 deadline, the mathematical lag of a 7-day moving av...

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The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint. A return to normal traffic signals an easing of Middle East tensions or blockades, which would aggressively strip the geopolitical risk premium out of Crude Oil prices. This would also reduce safe-haven demand for Gold while mildly supporting broad equities (S&P 500) by easing inflation fears.

How frequent and reliable are the IMF Portwatch updates for the Strait of Hormuz 7-day moving average transit calls, and is there any risk of delayed or halted data before May 15?

Culture|$2.5m Vol|

Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the May 16 Grand Final approaches, rehearsal performances and staging have largely stabilized. Au...

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Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner' event, focusing on analyzing the bid-ask spread and depth of the Order Book given the reported low volume (1.19) to assess liquidity risk, and review user discussions for potential arbitrage opportunities arising from the disconnect between 'Jury preferences' and 'Televote preferences'.

Culture|$143.5m Vol|

Eurovision Winner 2026

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than a week remaining until the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final (May 16), market pricing is hi...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision Winner 2026' to analyze the order book depth, specifically for top contenders (e.g., Sweden, Italy, Ukraine) that have recently revealed their entries. Incorporate user discussions regarding recent 'National Selection' performances to assess fair value and liquidity risks.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

84,000

YesNo

28¢

76¢

58.1¢

41.9¢

+30.1¢

0¢

82,000

YesNo

49¢

56¢

77.6¢

22.4¢

+28.6¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.1140, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 2: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 3: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0400, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 4: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0130, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Weekly Price Change, -0.0010, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 2: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Esports|$3.3m Vol|

233 days 23 hrs

LoL: LCK 2026 Season Winner

Top Undervalued

Hanwha Life Esports(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

Based on the latest prediction market data, Gen.G Esports remains stable at 48c, maintaining expecta...

🔓 Log in to see more

Trump|$1.3m Vol|

Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days remaining until the May 15 deadline, the 'May 15' option price remains stable ...

🔓 Log in to see more

Kevin Warsh is generally perceived as more hawkish or possessing different monetary policy inclinations compared to the incumbent (Powell). His confirmation would signal a potential pivot in future Fed policy (e.g., a more aggressive stance on inflation or deregulation), directly impacting US 10Y Yields and the Dollar Index (DXY). For equities, a hawkish chair is typically bearish, though his deregulation stance could favor the banking sector. This event is significant enough to trigger a market repricing.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Lock-up Calculation: Given the resolution date of May 15, 2026, this is a long-duration prediction. Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI at current odds against the annualized yields of DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries over the same period to determine if the trade still holds positive Expected Value (EV) after accounting for the time value of money.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the depth and bid-ask spread of the current $234k volume, assessing slippage risk for large entries; concurrently, gather the latest reporting on Kevin Warsh's standing with Trump compared to other potential candidates like Scott Bessent to judge if the current market odds reasonably reflect the nomination probability.

[Key Timeline Check] Senate Confirmation Process & Deadline Pitfall: Retrieve the historical average duration from nomination to Senate confirmation for past Fed Chairs (e.g., Powell, Yellen). Critically analyze if a nomination in early 2026 could face Senate procedural delays pushing the vote past the strict "May 15, 2026" deadline, causing the contract to resolve to "No" even if Warsh is eventually confirmed.

[Opportunity Cost] Capital Lock-up Calculation: Given the resolution date of May 15, 2026, this is a long-duration prediction. Calculate the opportunity cost of locking up capital. Compare the potential ROI at current odds against the annualized yields of DeFi stablecoins or Treasuries over the same period to determine if the trade still holds positive Expected Value (EV) after accounting for the time value of money.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the depth and bid-ask spread of the current $234k volume, assessing slippage risk for large entries; concurrently, gather the latest reporting on Kevin Warsh's standing with Trump compared to other potential candidates like Scott Bessent to judge if the current market odds reasonably reflect the nomination probability.

Oil|$12.5m Vol|

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days remaining until the May 15 deadline, the mathematical lag of a 7-day moving av...

🔓 Log in to see more

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most critical oil transit chokepoint. A return to normal traffic signals an easing of Middle East tensions or blockades, which would aggressively strip the geopolitical risk premium out of Crude Oil prices. This would also reduce safe-haven demand for Gold while mildly supporting broad equities (S&P 500) by easing inflation fears.

How frequent and reliable are the IMF Portwatch updates for the Strait of Hormuz 7-day moving average transit calls, and is there any risk of delayed or halted data before May 15?

Culture|$2.5m Vol|

Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

As the May 16 Grand Final approaches, rehearsal performances and staging have largely stabilized. Au...

🔓 Log in to see more

Retrieve the latest market data for the 'Eurovision 2026: Jury Winner' event, focusing on analyzing the bid-ask spread and depth of the Order Book given the reported low volume (1.19) to assess liquidity risk, and review user discussions for potential arbitrage opportunities arising from the disconnect between 'Jury preferences' and 'Televote preferences'.

Culture|$143.5m Vol|

Eurovision Winner 2026

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than a week remaining until the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final (May 16), market pricing is hi...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for 'Eurovision Winner 2026' to analyze the order book depth, specifically for top contenders (e.g., Sweden, Italy, Ukraine) that have recently revealed their entries. Incorporate user discussions regarding recent 'National Selection' performances to assess fair value and liquidity risks.

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