Bitcoin price on April 14? - AI Found +10.8¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$12.8k Vol|

4 days 21 hrs

Bitcoin price on April 14? - AI Found +10.8¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+10.8¢

>78,000(Yes)

+9.3¢

76,000-78,000(Yes)

+7.6¢

70,000-72,000(No)

Bitcoin price on April 14? AI analysis: • +10.8¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$57.7k Vol|

SAVE America Act becomes law by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) passed the House, it faces a decisive legislative deadlock in...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The SAVE America Act is a core political agenda item for the Trump administration (in the 2026 context per search results), aiming to tighten voter eligibility. Its passage would be seen as a significant political victory, likely boosting associated sentiment stocks like DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) as a proxy for his legislative control. For the broader market (S&P 500), the impact is negligible unless the bill becomes a 'poison pill' in funding negotiations leading to a government shutdown threat, which would generate only minor short-term noise.

Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)' event on Polymarket to analyze the order book depth and spread risk given the extremely low volume (5.051); simultaneously visit Congress.gov to verify the bill's current legislative status (e.g., committee review, scheduling) to assess if the market pricing fairly reflects the realistic probability of passage by March 31.

Sports|$42.8k Vol|

UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued

Atlético Madrid(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market implied probability sum is approximately 229.25% (theoretical total is 200% since...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Bayern München's price surged from 43c to 59c, and Arsenal's price surged from 49.5c to 62.5c, while Real Madrid's price plummeted from 23c to 13c. This reflects the outcomes of the Champions League Quarter-Final first legs, where Arsenal and Bayern likely secured massive advantages, whereas Real Madrid suffered a heavy defeat or an upset. March 18, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Atlético Madrid's price crashed from 23.5c to 11c, likely due to a difficult Quarter-Final draw or a shaky performance in the Round of 16 second leg. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Liverpool's price surged from 13c to 20.5c, reflecting strong market confidence following their qualification for the Quarter-Finals.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Order Book data on Polymarket for this event. Compare the implied probabilities of favorites like Man City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich against official sportsbook odds. Also, check for any drastic price volatility caused by injuries or recent match performances to assess current arbitrage opportunities and risks.

Tech|$18.6k Vol|

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the market rules, the forecast requires an OpenAI model to achieve the specified score ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.

Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.

If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.

2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models (e.g., GPT-5.4), mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure). 2026-03-01 - 2026-03-02, the 50%+ option saw volatility driven by post-deadline speculation.

The market prices deviate significantly from objective reality. Although the February 28, 2026 deadline set by the rules passed over a month ago, and no reports indicate OpenAI reached the 60% score prior to it, the prediction market still assigns a 41% probability. This divergence is entirely driven by irrational speculation by market users, failure to read the deadline clause in the rules, or unrealistic hopes for retroactive leaderboard updates.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Technical Barriers & Reality Analysis: Search for the latest technical whitepapers on FrontierMath to understand the actual scores of current SOTA models (currently extremely low, <2%). Analyze whether a massive jump from <2% to 45%+ by the 2026 deadline is consistent with the historical growth curves of LLM Scaling Laws, or if it requires a fundamental breakthrough in "System 2" reasoning capabilities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Technical Barriers & Reality Analysis: Search for the latest technical whitepapers on FrontierMath to understand the actual scores of current SOTA models (currently extremely low, <2%). Analyze whether a massive jump from <2% to 45%+ by the 2026 deadline is consistent with the historical growth curves of LLM Scaling Laws, or if it requires a fundamental breakthrough in "System 2" reasoning capabilities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.

Economy|$48.0k Vol|

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Jones Act enjoys entrenched bipartisan support and is widely considered a cornerstone of nationa...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Jones Act is a long-standing political topic. While not as mainstream as general elections, it is central to logistics, energy, and trade policy circles. It is somewhat niche for the general public but certainly not a 'novelty' or impossible question, especially during periods of high inflation or disaster response.

Repealing the Jones Act would cause a structural shock (extreme negative impact) to protected US domestic shipping carriers like Matson (MATX) due to the loss of their competitive moat. It could also lower domestic transport costs, slightly impacting Crude Oil (specifically regarding WTI-Brent arbitrage flows). This event has very high hedging value for specific stocks.

The prediction market currently implies a 12.5% probability that the Jones Act will be repealed in the short term, which diverges significantly from mainstream political and maritime policy consensus. Mainstream experts consider the act virtually 'untouchable' in Congress due to strong union and defense lobbying, making it impossible to be overturned within an 81-day window absent a catastrophic crisis. The market's premium is primarily driven by irrational liquidity or excessive speculation over the definition of 'new legislation' rather than realistic political prospects.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates on the Jones Act, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely low $10 volume and order book depth, and assess the fair value, bid-ask spread risks, and whether any actual trading opportunity exists given the liquidity.

Mentions|$12.9k Vol|

What will be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?

Top Undervalued

Jiggle Peek(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

During the English broadcast of a CS2 Grand Final (BO3 or BO5), core tactical and weapon terms (e.g....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The market rules seem straightforward but contain key hidden points: 1. Any mention of the term counts, including in-game character voice lines and AI-generated audio, increasing the risk of unexpected triggers. 2. Must be mentioned in the official English broadcast. 3. Complex terms like 'Faze' might be mentioned frequently as team names, while phrases or specific count requirements demand meticulous tracking.

This is a highly exotic and novelty market. The vast majority of people would not ponder what specific words or phrases commentators or in-game audio will say during a specific esports (PGL Bucharest 2026 CS2) grand final broadcast (with some requiring specific counts like 'Bomb 100+ times'), making it an extremely niche and entertainment-driven prop bet.

Between April 6, 2026, and April 9, 2026, the price of Pistol 20+ times surged from 57.5c to 91c, Headshot 10+ times from 50c to 86c, AWP 10+ times from 57.5c to 85.5c, Defuse 5+ times from 48c to 81c, Ace from 45.5c to 79c, Scout 5+ times from 53c to 81c, Short 10+ times from 57.5c to 83.5c, and Retake 10+ times from 53c to 84.5c. This occurred because market participants realized that during a long BO3 or BO5 series, these fundamental game terms, common tactical positions, and weapons will easily reach their respective mention thresholds, leading to a massive influx of 'Yes' buys to correct the undervaluation.

Explain the resolution criteria for the 'What will be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?' market in simple terms, especially how in-game audio and AI-generated clips are counted.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

>78,000

YesNo

5¢

95.9¢

15.8¢

84.2¢

+10.8¢

0¢

76,000-78,000

YesNo

7.2¢

94.4¢

16.5¢

83.5¢

+9.3¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Last Week High Breakout Status, 1.0000, Impact-Intense, Factor description Structural breakout: whether the price breaks above last week highest price (0/1) Positive Factor 2: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, 0.0330, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Positive Factor 3: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0350, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 4: Weekly Price Change, 0.0290, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Positive Factor 5: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0350, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Positive Factor 6: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, 0.0090, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average Negative Factor 1: Volume-Price Divergence Signal, 1.0000, Impact-Strong, Factor description Potential trap signal: detect divergence where price rises but volume decreases

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$57.7k Vol|

SAVE America Act becomes law by...?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) passed the House, it faces a decisive legislative deadlock in...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The SAVE America Act is a core political agenda item for the Trump administration (in the 2026 context per search results), aiming to tighten voter eligibility. Its passage would be seen as a significant political victory, likely boosting associated sentiment stocks like DJT (Trump Media & Technology Group) as a proxy for his legislative control. For the broader market (S&P 500), the impact is negligible unless the bill becomes a 'poison pill' in funding negotiations leading to a government shutdown threat, which would generate only minor short-term noise.

Retrieve the latest trading data for the 'SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)' event on Polymarket to analyze the order book depth and spread risk given the extremely low volume (5.051); simultaneously visit Congress.gov to verify the bill's current legislative status (e.g., committee review, scheduling) to assess if the market pricing fairly reflects the realistic probability of passage by March 31.

Sports|$42.8k Vol|

UEFA Champions League: Team to reach final

Top Undervalued

Atlético Madrid(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current market implied probability sum is approximately 229.25% (theoretical total is 200% since...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

April 7, 2026 - April 8, 2026, Bayern München's price surged from 43c to 59c, and Arsenal's price surged from 49.5c to 62.5c, while Real Madrid's price plummeted from 23c to 13c. This reflects the outcomes of the Champions League Quarter-Final first legs, where Arsenal and Bayern likely secured massive advantages, whereas Real Madrid suffered a heavy defeat or an upset. March 18, 2026 - March 20, 2026, Atlético Madrid's price crashed from 23.5c to 11c, likely due to a difficult Quarter-Final draw or a shaky performance in the Round of 16 second leg. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, Liverpool's price surged from 13c to 20.5c, reflecting strong market confidence following their qualification for the Quarter-Finals.

[Mandatory Task] Retrieve the latest Order Book data on Polymarket for this event. Compare the implied probabilities of favorites like Man City, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich against official sportsbook odds. Also, check for any drastic price volatility caused by injuries or recent match performances to assess current arbitrage opportunities and risks.

Tech|$18.6k Vol|

OpenAI GPT score on FrontierMath Benchmark by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the market rules, the forecast requires an OpenAI model to achieve the specified score ...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

Critical Risk. There is a fatal date discrepancy: the Title states 'by June 30', but the Rules text explicitly specifies 'by February 28, 2026'. In prediction markets, the specific text in the Rules usually overrides the Title. This implies the effective deadline is in just 18 days, not 4 months. Furthermore, the reliance on Epoch AI as the resolution source poses a lag risk; if Epoch does not update the leaderboard immediately for the recently released GPT-5.3-Codex (Feb 5), the market could resolve 'No' despite model capabilities.

Moderately Exotic. FrontierMath is a highly specialized, 'research-level' mathematics benchmark containing unpublished problems. While OpenAI models are mainstream, betting on specific percentage thresholds for this niche, high-difficulty benchmark is a topic for deep-tech industry watchers, not the general public.

If OpenAI scores break 50% or 70% (current GPT-5.2 is ~40.3%), it validates that Scaling Laws are still effective for extreme reasoning tasks, bullish for MSFT (OpenAI backer) and NVDA (compute demand). Conversely, stalling at ~40% implies a reasoning ceiling. Since the baseline is already 40.3%, a jump to 45%+ is a credible signal for continued AI progress, carrying medium-impact price implications for AI-linked equities.

2026-03-30 - 2026-04-01, the price of the 60%+ option plummeted from 56.5c to 41c, as market participants gradually realized the hard deadline of February 28 had passed without success, causing the speculative bubble to deflate. 2026-03-14 - 2026-03-15, the price of the 60%+ option surged from 43.5c to 56c. The reason was likely market overreaction to the release of new OpenAI models (e.g., GPT-5.4), mistakenly assuming the release implied benchmark success, despite the simultaneous data showing a score of 47.6% (a failure). 2026-03-01 - 2026-03-02, the 50%+ option saw volatility driven by post-deadline speculation.

The market prices deviate significantly from objective reality. Although the February 28, 2026 deadline set by the rules passed over a month ago, and no reports indicate OpenAI reached the 60% score prior to it, the prediction market still assigns a 41% probability. This divergence is entirely driven by irrational speculation by market users, failure to read the deadline clause in the rules, or unrealistic hopes for retroactive leaderboard updates.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Technical Barriers & Reality Analysis: Search for the latest technical whitepapers on FrontierMath to understand the actual scores of current SOTA models (currently extremely low, <2%). Analyze whether a massive jump from <2% to 45%+ by the 2026 deadline is consistent with the historical growth curves of LLM Scaling Laws, or if it requires a fundamental breakthrough in "System 2" reasoning capabilities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.

[Category 2: Niche Market] Technical Barriers & Reality Analysis: Search for the latest technical whitepapers on FrontierMath to understand the actual scores of current SOTA models (currently extremely low, <2%). Analyze whether a massive jump from <2% to 45%+ by the 2026 deadline is consistent with the historical growth curves of LLM Scaling Laws, or if it requires a fundamental breakthrough in "System 2" reasoning capabilities.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to analyze the liquidity and spreads for different score tiers (45%+|50%+, etc.). Focus on the discrepancy between the title date (June 30) and the description deadline (Feb 28), and check user discussions to assess the risk of settlement disputes and capital lock-up periods caused by this conflicting timeline.

Economy|$48.0k Vol|

Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The Jones Act enjoys entrenched bipartisan support and is widely considered a cornerstone of nationa...

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The Jones Act is a long-standing political topic. While not as mainstream as general elections, it is central to logistics, energy, and trade policy circles. It is somewhat niche for the general public but certainly not a 'novelty' or impossible question, especially during periods of high inflation or disaster response.

Repealing the Jones Act would cause a structural shock (extreme negative impact) to protected US domestic shipping carriers like Matson (MATX) due to the loss of their competitive moat. It could also lower domestic transport costs, slightly impacting Crude Oil (specifically regarding WTI-Brent arbitrage flows). This event has very high hedging value for specific stocks.

The prediction market currently implies a 12.5% probability that the Jones Act will be repealed in the short term, which diverges significantly from mainstream political and maritime policy consensus. Mainstream experts consider the act virtually 'untouchable' in Congress due to strong union and defense lobbying, making it impossible to be overturned within an 81-day window absent a catastrophic crisis. The market's premium is primarily driven by irrational liquidity or excessive speculation over the definition of 'new legislation' rather than realistic political prospects.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest legislative updates on the Jones Act, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the extremely low $10 volume and order book depth, and assess the fair value, bid-ask spread risks, and whether any actual trading opportunity exists given the liquidity.

Mentions|$12.9k Vol|

What will be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?

Top Undervalued

Jiggle Peek(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

During the English broadcast of a CS2 Grand Final (BO3 or BO5), core tactical and weapon terms (e.g....

🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)

The market rules seem straightforward but contain key hidden points: 1. Any mention of the term counts, including in-game character voice lines and AI-generated audio, increasing the risk of unexpected triggers. 2. Must be mentioned in the official English broadcast. 3. Complex terms like 'Faze' might be mentioned frequently as team names, while phrases or specific count requirements demand meticulous tracking.

This is a highly exotic and novelty market. The vast majority of people would not ponder what specific words or phrases commentators or in-game audio will say during a specific esports (PGL Bucharest 2026 CS2) grand final broadcast (with some requiring specific counts like 'Bomb 100+ times'), making it an extremely niche and entertainment-driven prop bet.

Between April 6, 2026, and April 9, 2026, the price of Pistol 20+ times surged from 57.5c to 91c, Headshot 10+ times from 50c to 86c, AWP 10+ times from 57.5c to 85.5c, Defuse 5+ times from 48c to 81c, Ace from 45.5c to 79c, Scout 5+ times from 53c to 81c, Short 10+ times from 57.5c to 83.5c, and Retake 10+ times from 53c to 84.5c. This occurred because market participants realized that during a long BO3 or BO5 series, these fundamental game terms, common tactical positions, and weapons will easily reach their respective mention thresholds, leading to a massive influx of 'Yes' buys to correct the undervaluation.

Explain the resolution criteria for the 'What will be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?' market in simple terms, especially how in-game audio and AI-generated clips are counted.

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is PolyPredict AI and how can I access it?

2. How does the AI determine the "Fair Value"?

3. What makes the "Arbitrage Plans" unique?

4. What is the difference between Event and Live Markets?

5. What are the key differences between the Free and Pro versions?

6. Can I use PolyPredict AI on Telegram?

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Market data provided by PolyMarket.

© 2026 SynthMind AI Limited.

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner

Apex Omni

PolyPredict AI Robot