Politics|$549.3k Vol|
287 days 6 hrsDelcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by...? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
December 31
YesNo
March 31
YesNo
AI Insights:
5 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
For the March 31 option, with less than 2 weeks remaining and no signs of imminent coup or resignation, theta has nearly exhausted the option's value. We assign a fair value of 1c to reflect extreme tail risk, but it is effectively dead. For the December 31 option, the market has undergone a sharp correction, with the 'Yes' price plunging from 38.5c a week ago to 26.5c. This pullback suggests the previous rally (to 41c) was speculatively overheated, and the market is repricing the stability of the Venezuelan regime. While Venezuelan politics are volatile, authoritarian regimes (or their acting proxies) often possess strong inertia. We peg fair value at 28c, slightly above the current market price, to account for the non-linear risks of external sanctions or internal power struggles over the remaining 9 months, while generally acknowledging the market's reversion to a 'status quo' outlook.
Sign up to view more information
Rule Risk
There is a significant 'Title Transition' risk. The rules specify resolution as Yes if she loses the position of 'Acting President'. If she transitions to 'Permanent President' via election or appointment, she technically loses the 'Acting' title, triggering a literal Yes, despite maintaining power. Additionally, the 'for any length of time' clause creates volatility; a brief detention (e.g., hours) or a temporary loss of communication during a coup attempt could trigger a Yes resolution, which is highly contentious in unstable geopolitical contexts.
Hedging
Crude Oil
CVX
XLE
Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez is currently advancing privatization laws to attract foreign capital (specifically US firms). Her removal could signal either: 1) a hardliner backlash leading to re-nationalization or civil war (Bullish for Oil); or 2) a full opposition takeover accelerating supply (Bearish for Oil long-term). Since US energy majors like Chevron (CVX) are actively 'scouting' the region, her survival directly impacts their CapEx risk exposure and global crude supply expectations.
