[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028', analyze the order book depth for top contenders (e.g., Newsom, Harris, Whitmer), and update the fair value assessment and long-term capital lock-up risks based on the current political climate.

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for 'Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028', analyze the order book depth for top contenders (e.g., Newsom, Harris, Whitmer), and update the fair value assessment and long-term capital lock-up risks based on the current political climate.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to find and summarize the most recent statements or actions from potential candidates like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, or Josh Shapiro hinting at a 2028 run.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Breaking] Core News Sourcing: Search Google News and Twitter to find and summarize the most recent statements or actions from potential candidates like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, or Josh Shapiro hinting at a 2028 run.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Compare current Polymarket odds with early favorability ratings or potential primary polling data from YouGov or Morning Consult to identify any undervalued dark horses.

AI-powered analysis for: [Politics] Authoritative Polls Comparison: Compare current Polymarket odds with early favorability ratings or potential primary polling data from YouGov or Morning Consult to identify any undervalued dark horses.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Verify the projected timeframe for the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the start of the primary season to assess the liquidity risk of locking capital until November 2028.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Rules] Key Timeline Check: Verify the projected timeframe for the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) and the start of the primary season to assess the liquidity risk of locking capital until November 2028.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Key Players Mining: Search for and analyze the current movements of major Democratic donors and Super PACs to identify which potential candidates they are privately courting or signaling support for.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Key Players Mining: Search for and analyze the current movements of major Democratic donors and Super PACs to identify which potential candidates they are privately courting or signaling support for.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search historical US political data to calculate the frequency of a Vice President (like Kamala Harris) securing the party nomination again after losing a general election cycle.

AI-powered analysis for: [Niche Market] Historical Frequency Statistics: Search historical US political data to calculate the frequency of a Vice President (like Kamala Harris) securing the party nomination again after losing a general election cycle.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for arguments on 'why celebrity candidates (e.g., The Rock, MrBeast) cannot win the primary', analyzing the party establishment's power to block non-political figures.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opposing Arguments Retrieval: Deliberately search for arguments on 'why celebrity candidates (e.g., The Rock, MrBeast) cannot win the primary', analyzing the party establishment's power to block non-political figures.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain in the simplest terms how the market resolves based on 'official Democratic Party consensus' if a candidate wins the primary but drops out before the general election in November 2028.

AI-powered analysis for: [General/Newbie] Resolution Rules (ELI5): Explain in the simplest terms how the market resolves based on 'official Democratic Party consensus' if a candidate wins the primary but drops out before the general election in November 2028.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Given the 4-year duration until resolution, analyze whether shorting (buying No) on highly unlikely celebrities (e.g., Kim Kardashian) is the best strategy to harvest time value.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Time Decay (Theta) Analysis: Given the 4-year duration until resolution, analyze whether shorting (buying No) on highly unlikely celebrities (e.g., Kim Kardashian) is the best strategy to harvest time value.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Predict potential catalysts within the next 12-24 months (e.g., 2026 Midterm election results, candidate book launches) that could cause significant volatility in the odds.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Potential Catalyst Prediction: Predict potential catalysts within the next 12-24 months (e.g., 2026 Midterm election results, candidate book launches) that could cause significant volatility in the odds.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract core disagreements from the Polymarket comment section, specifically focusing on the debate of 'Kamala Harris's comeback potential' vs. 'The party seeking fresh faces'.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Community Disagreement Summary: Extract core disagreements from the Polymarket comment section, specifically focusing on the debate of 'Kamala Harris's comeback potential' vs. 'The party seeking fresh faces'.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for reports on 'The Invisible Primary' to track which potential candidates are already making frequent visits to early voting states like Iowa or New Hampshire.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Institutional/Smart Money Tracking: Search for reports on 'The Invisible Primary' to track which potential candidates are already making frequent visits to early voting states like Iowa or New Hampshire.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the current early odds trajectory of Gavin Newsom or Josh Shapiro with the historical price patterns of early frontrunners in the 2004 or 2016 cycles.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Historical Fractal Comparison: Compare the current early odds trajectory of Gavin Newsom or Josh Shapiro with the historical price patterns of early frontrunners in the 2004 or 2016 cycles.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Qualitatively assess whether the current market offers better value in 'buying a lottery ticket' on long-shot dark horses (e.g., Wes Moore) or 'picking up pennies' on established favorites.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Risk-Reward Qualitative Analysis: Qualitatively assess whether the current market offers better value in 'buying a lottery ticket' on long-shot dark horses (e.g., Wes Moore) or 'picking up pennies' on established favorites.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the potential ROI of buying 'Yes' on a favorite now and holding until 2028 beats the risk-free compounded yield in DeFi protocols over a 4-year period.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Opportunity Cost of Capital: Calculate if the potential ROI of buying 'Yes' on a favorite now and holding until 2028 beats the risk-free compounded yield in DeFi protocols over a 4-year period.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) for top-tier candidates (like Whitmer) deep in the order book to catch potential panic selling over the next few years.

AI-powered analysis for: [Low Liquidity] 'Stink Bid' Strategy: Provide guidance on placing extremely low bids (Stink Bids) for top-tier candidates (like Whitmer) deep in the order book to catch potential panic selling over the next few years.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Given the extreme time horizon and political uncertainty leading up to 2028, suggest a highly conservative portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Kelly Criterion Sizing Recommendation: Given the extreme time horizon and political uncertainty leading up to 2028, suggest a highly conservative portfolio allocation percentage using the Kelly criterion.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Suggest constructing a portfolio strategy using the 'US Presidential Election Winner 2028' market to hedge the risk of a specific candidate winning the nomination but losing the general election.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] Correlated Combo Bets Discovery: Suggest constructing a portfolio strategy using the 'US Presidential Election Winner 2028' market to hedge the risk of a specific candidate winning the nomination but losing the general election.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Fair Value] Extreme Bottom Projection: Logically project the bottom support price for other major contenders if Kamala Harris publicly announces she will not run in 2028.

AI-powered analysis for: [Fair Value] Extreme Bottom Projection: Logically project the bottom support price for other major contenders if Kamala Harris publicly announces she will not run in 2028.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize information to create a long-term trading plan: accumulate shares on dips during the 'quiet period' (2025-2026) and sell into the hype before the first primary debates in 2027.

AI-powered analysis for: [General] One-Page Trading Plan Generation: Synthesize information to create a long-term trading plan: accumulate shares on dips during the 'quiet period' (2025-2026) and sell into the hype before the first primary debates in 2027.. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$854.2m Vol|

964 days 7 hrs

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Gretchen Whitmer

YesNo

1.5¢

98.5¢

10¢

90¢

+8.5¢

0¢

Kamala Harris

YesNo

5.05¢

94.95¢

12¢

88¢

+6.9¢

0¢

Pete Buttigieg

YesNo

3.65¢

96.35¢

10¢

90¢

+6.4¢

0¢

Josh Shapiro

YesNo

3.95¢

96.05¢

10¢

90¢

+6.1¢

0¢

Gavin Newsom

YesNo

24.45¢

75.55¢

20¢

80¢

0¢

+4.5¢

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

YesNo

8.35¢

91.65¢

4¢

96¢

0¢

+4.3¢

Wes Moore

YesNo

1.45¢

98.55¢

5¢

95¢

+3.6¢

0¢

James Talarico

YesNo

2.75¢

97.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+2.7¢

Roy Cooper

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

3¢

97¢

+2.1¢

0¢

Mark Kelly

YesNo

2.4¢

97.6¢

4¢

96¢

+1.6¢

0¢

Andy Beshear

YesNo

2.45¢

97.55¢

4¢

96¢

+1.5¢

0¢

Jon Stewart

YesNo

2.25¢

97.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+1.2¢

Stephen A. Smith

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1.1¢

Zohran Mamdani

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+1¢

Liz Cheney

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

MrBeast

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

LeBron James

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.9¢

Kim Kardashian

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Andrew Yang

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Chelsea Clinton

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Barack Obama

YesNo

0.85¢

99.15¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.8¢

Beto O’Rourke

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Hunter Biden

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Hillary Clinton

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.7¢

Jasmine Crockett

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Oprah Winfrey

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Bernie Sanders

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

George Clooney

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

0¢

100¢

0¢

+0.6¢

Raphael Warnock

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

1¢

99¢

+0.4¢

0¢

Jon Ossoff

YesNo

5.55¢

94.45¢

6¢

94¢

+0.4¢

0¢

J.B. Pritzker

YesNo

2.6¢

97.4¢

3¢

97¢

+0.4¢

0¢

Tim Walz

YesNo

0.65¢

99.35¢

1¢

99¢

+0.4¢

0¢

Jared Polis

YesNo

0.75¢

99.25¢

1¢

99¢

+0.3¢

0¢

Michelle Obama

YesNo

1.25¢

98.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Rahm Emanuel

YesNo

1.25¢

98.75¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.2¢

Ruben Gallego

YesNo

1.75¢

98.25¢

2¢

98¢

+0.2¢

0¢

John Fetterman

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

1¢

99¢

+0.1¢

0¢

Ro Khanna

YesNo

1.15¢

98.85¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

+0.1¢

Mark Cuban

YesNo

0.95¢

99.05¢

1¢

99¢

+0.1¢

0¢

Phil Murphy

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

Cory Booker

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

Chris Murphy

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

Gina Raimondo

YesNo

1.05¢

98.95¢

1¢

99¢

0¢

AI Insights:

4 hours ago Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

The market continues to exhibit severe 'cognitive bias'. 1. **Massive Governor Undervaluation**: Prices for Gretchen Whitmer (1.5c) and Josh Shapiro (4.0c) are completely disconnected from their actual standing. As successful governors of key swing states, they are the logical 'establishment' picks for 2028; their fair value should be around 10c. 2. **The AOC Premium**: AOC's price (8.4c) reflects social media engagement rather than national primary viability; her ceiling is limited by electability concerns in swing states. 3. **Harris Oversold**: While Kamala Harris (5.1c) carries baggage, her fundraising network and name ID as a former VP/Nominee dictate she should be a top-tier contender (10c+). Trading below Jon Ossoff is irrational.

Divergence

There is a massive divergence between the prediction market and political reality. Mainstream political analysis typically views Gretchen Whitmer, Josh Shapiro, and Wes Moore as core future leaders of the Democratic Party. However, in this market, their combined price (~7c) is less than AOC alone (8.4c). The market heavily overvalues online celebrity (Newsom, AOC, Talarico) while ignoring traditional party advancement pathways and swing-state electability logic.

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner