Ethereum above ___ on March 27? - AI Found +22.5¢ Mispricing

Crypto|$513 Vol|

6 days 14 hrs

Ethereum above ___ on March 27? - AI Found +22.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated:

Top Undervalued

+22.5¢

2,300(Yes)

+19.9¢

2,200(Yes)

+19.1¢

2,400(Yes)

Ethereum above ___ on March 27? AI analysis: • +22.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$10.9k Vol|

White House # posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While the March 20 release of the 'AI Regulatory Framework' and ongoing 'Operation Epic Fury' milita...

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This is a typical niche derivative market. The general public cares about the content of White House policies, not the numerical 'frequency' of tweets. This is a statistical question created purely for betting, classifying it as a highly novel or 'exotic' market.

March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, prices for lower-tier options (40-139 posts) crashed significantly (e.g., 120-139 dropped from 25c to 8.5c, 100-119 from 25c to 5c). The reason is the market waking up from a 'zombie state' (where options were mechanically priced at ~25c) as the event started. Traders repriced for high activity driven by the new White House AI policy and military updates, flushing capital into the 160+ tiers.

Divergence detected. The market favors '200+' (28c), implying a sustained daily average >28 posts. This contrasts with mainstream observations of the official White House account's historical patterns (15-22/day), distinct from Trump's personal account. The market appears to be extrapolating the 'AI Launch Day' spike too aggressively, ignoring weekend lulls and structural limits of the official handle.

Visit the Polymarket page for 'White House # posts March 20 - March 27' to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads, specifically tracking capital flows in popular ranges (like 80-99 or 100-119) to assess the market's core pricing of political activity for that week.

Politics|$112.7k Vol|

Paris Mayoral Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued

Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%(No)

Emmanuel Grégoire <5%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 24 hours until the runoff (March 22) and the vote-splitting from the Far-Left (LFI) f...

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There is a significant definition risk: 1. The Paris mayoral election is indirect (via arrondissement councils), creating a potential 'Electoral College' scenario where a candidate could win the Mayoralty but lose the popular vote. This market resolves strictly on 'citywide list votes' (popular vote). Thus, the option 'Rachida Dati Win' implies winning the popular vote, not necessarily the office, which is a trap for bettors focusing on the political outcome. 2. The rule mentioning a specific 'two-ballot system' could cause resolution ambiguity if the actual election proceeds under the traditional single-ballot aggregation method.

From March 20, 2026, to March 21, 2026, the price of 'Emmanuel Grégoire <5%' surged from 57.5c to 66c, reflecting an accelerating market consensus toward the sole 'narrow victory' scenario as election day looms. From March 19, 2026, to March 20, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' dropped from 21.5c to 14.5c, indicating that some holders are realizing the impossibility of a comfortable margin and are liquidating positions. From March 17, 2026, to March 19, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%' crashed from 21c to 3.5c, marking the definitive end of any 'landslide' expectations for Grégoire and confirming that the left-wing vote split is fully priced in.

There is a significant internal logical divergence within the market. While the overall win probability (Grégoire total ~80% vs. Dati ~21%) aligns with mainstream expectations of a 'Socialist advantage,' the distribution of margins is misaligned. Mainstream political analysis suggests that with LFI splitting the vote, any Grégoire victory must be razor-thin. However, the prediction market still has ~16% of capital stuck in the '5-10%' and higher margin options, which contradicts the political reality of an 'extremely tight race' and suggests some participants do not fully understand the compression effect of the electoral system on vote margins.

Retrieve the latest order book data for the Paris Mayoral Election 'Margin of Victory' market. Given the extremely low volume (~$986) and wide spreads, analyze the bid-ask depth for options like 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' versus '20%+' to determine if current prices reflect genuine sentiment or simply market illiquidity.

Culture|$1.1m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Musk's current tweet frequency is in a 'High-Activity Mode'. While the last snapshot (March 20) show...

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This is a classic 'Novelty' market focusing on the social media metrics of a specific celebrity. While such bets are common in prediction market communities, for the general public, forecasting the exact tweet count of an individual is a niche, entertainment-oriented topic, distinct from traditional political or economic forecasting.

There is a significant divergence. Based on public tweet tracking data (Xtracker), the current real-time daily average (~65 tweets/day), if extrapolated for the full week, suggests a total in the 440-460 range. However, the prediction market's peak pricing remains clustered in the 320-340 range (implying ~47 tweets/day). This indicates that market participants widely expect Musk to significantly reduce his posting frequency (mean reversion) in the coming days, or that there is skepticism about the sustainability of the current burst, standing in sharp contrast to a linear extrapolation of the data.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book (currently only 2.02 volume) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, liquidity dry-up risks, and arbitrage strategies related to Elon Musk's tweet count.

Politics|$11.7k Vol|

CZ # posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the market strongly favors the '20-39' range (current price 74c), the pricing is too extrem...

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While the rules define the source (xtracker) and post types (main, quote, reposts), the definition of 'Replies' has ambiguity. The rule states replies don't count unless they appear on the 'main feed,' a technical distinction that can cause discrepancies between manual user counts and the tracker. Additionally, the capture mechanism for deleted posts within a 5-minute window introduces potential dispute risks.

This is a typical novelty market. Betting on the specific number of tweets a public figure posts in a week is not a mainstream topic in traditional finance or politics. It relies entirely on individual social media behavioral habits, categorizing it as a niche and entertainment-focused prediction.

From March 18 to March 20, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 32.5c to 74c, while the '<20' option plummeted from 25.5c to 4c. The reason is that as the tracking window (March 20) approached, the market observed an uptick in CZ's activity (likely related to the DC Blockchain Summit), causing traders to rapidly correct previous expectations of 'extremely low frequency' posting. This led to a massive concentration of capital into the medium-frequency bucket, creating the current one-sided trend.

There is a divergence in volatility pricing. The market price (74% probability locked on 20-39) implies extreme certainty, as if CZ's posting is a strictly linear process (fixed 3-5 posts/day). However, the consensus view is that social media activity is highly bursty and uncertain. The market is overly compressing the probabilities of a 'quiet week' (<20) and a 'busy week' (>40), diverging from standard social media behavioral patterns.

Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to retrieve the latest order book for the 'CZ # posts March 20 - March 27' market. Given the extremely low volume (~$4), focus on assessing bid-ask spread risks and recalculate the fair value of options by combining this with CZ's actual Twitter activity levels from the past week.

Politics|$33.6k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the previous week (March 13-20) settled in the '100-119' bucket, creating a strong anchor (...

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The rules are relatively clear but present two potential risks: 1. The definition of 'Replies'. While replies generally don't count, those appearing on the 'main feed' are counted. This depends on user action (checking 'Also share to followers') and is hard to distinguish visually via UI, relying heavily on the specific tracker data. 2. The resolution source (xtracker.polymarket.com) might experience outages or data lag, which is common in social media scraping.

This is a specific quantitative prediction about a public figure's social media behavior. While Trump's posting frequency is a common topic, predicting the precise number of posts (including reposts) in a specific week remains a niche and specific novelty market rather than a mainstream macro event.

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '80-99' dropped from 34.5c to 23.5c, as the market re-evaluated the upside risk of activity driven by the 'Iran War' news cycle at the start of the new weekly period (Mar 20), causing capital to rotate out of lower-frequency buckets. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for multiple outlier options (e.g., '20-39', '40-59') crashed from an anomalous ~40c to single digits, likely due to the correction of initial illiquidity or data calibration errors as the market matured.

Significant divergence detected. Mainstream media (Axios, Independent, NDTV) are currently (Mar 19-20) reporting on a 'frenzy' or 'barrage' of Trump posts regarding the Iran situation, describing the frequency as 'blast after blast'. However, Polymarket pricing favors a conservative '100-119' (~14-17 posts/day) or even lower '80-99', contradicting the high-frequency 'crisis mode' activity described in the news.

Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for top options like '200+' vs '120-139'. Combine this with recent user discussions regarding Trump's mid-March posting behavior to assess if the current odds accurately price in the risk of a sudden 'Retruth' spam event.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

2,300

YesNo

23.5¢

76.5¢

46¢

54¢

+22.5¢

0¢

2,200

YesNo

41.5¢

58.5¢

61.4¢

38.6¢

+19.9¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

AI Insights & Reasoning:

Positive Factor 1: Monthly MA20 Deviation Rate, 0.0250, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term strength indicator: deviation of price relative to the 20-day life line Positive Factor 2: Bollinger Midline Deviation Rate, 0.0250, Impact-Strong, Factor description Swing support: deviation of price relative to the Bollinger midline (MA20) Negative Factor 1: Quarterly MA60 Deviation Rate, -0.0240, Impact-Intense, Factor description Medium-term trend: deviation of price relative to the 60-day decision moving average Negative Factor 2: Weekly Price Change, -0.0140, Impact-Strong, Factor description Weekly candlestick pattern: percentage change from weekly open to current price Negative Factor 3: Attack Line MA5 Deviation Rate, -0.0190, Impact-Medium, Factor description Short-term breakout potential: deviation of price relative to the 5-day moving average

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Politics|$10.9k Vol|

White House # posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

While the March 20 release of the 'AI Regulatory Framework' and ongoing 'Operation Epic Fury' milita...

Log in to see more

This is a typical niche derivative market. The general public cares about the content of White House policies, not the numerical 'frequency' of tweets. This is a statistical question created purely for betting, classifying it as a highly novel or 'exotic' market.

March 17, 2026 - March 20, 2026, prices for lower-tier options (40-139 posts) crashed significantly (e.g., 120-139 dropped from 25c to 8.5c, 100-119 from 25c to 5c). The reason is the market waking up from a 'zombie state' (where options were mechanically priced at ~25c) as the event started. Traders repriced for high activity driven by the new White House AI policy and military updates, flushing capital into the 160+ tiers.

Divergence detected. The market favors '200+' (28c), implying a sustained daily average >28 posts. This contrasts with mainstream observations of the official White House account's historical patterns (15-22/day), distinct from Trump's personal account. The market appears to be extrapolating the 'AI Launch Day' spike too aggressively, ignoring weekend lulls and structural limits of the official handle.

Visit the Polymarket page for 'White House # posts March 20 - March 27' to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads, specifically tracking capital flows in popular ranges (like 80-99 or 100-119) to assess the market's core pricing of political activity for that week.

Politics|$112.7k Vol|

Paris Mayoral Election Runoff: Margin of Victory

Top Undervalued

Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%(No)

Emmanuel Grégoire <5%(Yes)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 24 hours until the runoff (March 22) and the vote-splitting from the Far-Left (LFI) f...

Log in to see more

There is a significant definition risk: 1. The Paris mayoral election is indirect (via arrondissement councils), creating a potential 'Electoral College' scenario where a candidate could win the Mayoralty but lose the popular vote. This market resolves strictly on 'citywide list votes' (popular vote). Thus, the option 'Rachida Dati Win' implies winning the popular vote, not necessarily the office, which is a trap for bettors focusing on the political outcome. 2. The rule mentioning a specific 'two-ballot system' could cause resolution ambiguity if the actual election proceeds under the traditional single-ballot aggregation method.

From March 20, 2026, to March 21, 2026, the price of 'Emmanuel Grégoire <5%' surged from 57.5c to 66c, reflecting an accelerating market consensus toward the sole 'narrow victory' scenario as election day looms. From March 19, 2026, to March 20, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' dropped from 21.5c to 14.5c, indicating that some holders are realizing the impossibility of a comfortable margin and are liquidating positions. From March 17, 2026, to March 19, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%' crashed from 21c to 3.5c, marking the definitive end of any 'landslide' expectations for Grégoire and confirming that the left-wing vote split is fully priced in.

There is a significant internal logical divergence within the market. While the overall win probability (Grégoire total ~80% vs. Dati ~21%) aligns with mainstream expectations of a 'Socialist advantage,' the distribution of margins is misaligned. Mainstream political analysis suggests that with LFI splitting the vote, any Grégoire victory must be razor-thin. However, the prediction market still has ~16% of capital stuck in the '5-10%' and higher margin options, which contradicts the political reality of an 'extremely tight race' and suggests some participants do not fully understand the compression effect of the electoral system on vote margins.

Retrieve the latest order book data for the Paris Mayoral Election 'Margin of Victory' market. Given the extremely low volume (~$986) and wide spreads, analyze the bid-ask depth for options like 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' versus '20%+' to determine if current prices reflect genuine sentiment or simply market illiquidity.

Culture|$1.1m Vol|

Elon Musk # tweets March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Musk's current tweet frequency is in a 'High-Activity Mode'. While the last snapshot (March 20) show...

Log in to see more

This is a classic 'Novelty' market focusing on the social media metrics of a specific celebrity. While such bets are common in prediction market communities, for the general public, forecasting the exact tweet count of an individual is a niche, entertainment-oriented topic, distinct from traditional political or economic forecasting.

There is a significant divergence. Based on public tweet tracking data (Xtracker), the current real-time daily average (~65 tweets/day), if extrapolated for the full week, suggests a total in the 440-460 range. However, the prediction market's peak pricing remains clustered in the 320-340 range (implying ~47 tweets/day). This indicates that market participants widely expect Musk to significantly reduce his posting frequency (mean reversion) in the coming days, or that there is skepticism about the sustainability of the current burst, standing in sharp contrast to a linear extrapolation of the data.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest information, visit the Polymarket page for the corresponding Event to analyze the Order Book (currently only 2.02 volume) and user discussions, and update the assessment of fair value, liquidity dry-up risks, and arbitrage strategies related to Elon Musk's tweet count.

Politics|$11.7k Vol|

CZ # posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the market strongly favors the '20-39' range (current price 74c), the pricing is too extrem...

Log in to see more

While the rules define the source (xtracker) and post types (main, quote, reposts), the definition of 'Replies' has ambiguity. The rule states replies don't count unless they appear on the 'main feed,' a technical distinction that can cause discrepancies between manual user counts and the tracker. Additionally, the capture mechanism for deleted posts within a 5-minute window introduces potential dispute risks.

This is a typical novelty market. Betting on the specific number of tweets a public figure posts in a week is not a mainstream topic in traditional finance or politics. It relies entirely on individual social media behavioral habits, categorizing it as a niche and entertainment-focused prediction.

From March 18 to March 20, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 32.5c to 74c, while the '<20' option plummeted from 25.5c to 4c. The reason is that as the tracking window (March 20) approached, the market observed an uptick in CZ's activity (likely related to the DC Blockchain Summit), causing traders to rapidly correct previous expectations of 'extremely low frequency' posting. This led to a massive concentration of capital into the medium-frequency bucket, creating the current one-sided trend.

There is a divergence in volatility pricing. The market price (74% probability locked on 20-39) implies extreme certainty, as if CZ's posting is a strictly linear process (fixed 3-5 posts/day). However, the consensus view is that social media activity is highly bursty and uncertain. The market is overly compressing the probabilities of a 'quiet week' (<20) and a 'busy week' (>40), diverging from standard social media behavioral patterns.

Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page to retrieve the latest order book for the 'CZ # posts March 20 - March 27' market. Given the extremely low volume (~$4), focus on assessing bid-ask spread risks and recalculate the fair value of options by combining this with CZ's actual Twitter activity levels from the past week.

Politics|$33.6k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts March 20 - March 27, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Although the previous week (March 13-20) settled in the '100-119' bucket, creating a strong anchor (...

Log in to see more

The rules are relatively clear but present two potential risks: 1. The definition of 'Replies'. While replies generally don't count, those appearing on the 'main feed' are counted. This depends on user action (checking 'Also share to followers') and is hard to distinguish visually via UI, relying heavily on the specific tracker data. 2. The resolution source (xtracker.polymarket.com) might experience outages or data lag, which is common in social media scraping.

This is a specific quantitative prediction about a public figure's social media behavior. While Trump's posting frequency is a common topic, predicting the precise number of posts (including reposts) in a specific week remains a niche and specific novelty market rather than a mainstream macro event.

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '80-99' dropped from 34.5c to 23.5c, as the market re-evaluated the upside risk of activity driven by the 'Iran War' news cycle at the start of the new weekly period (Mar 20), causing capital to rotate out of lower-frequency buckets. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for multiple outlier options (e.g., '20-39', '40-59') crashed from an anomalous ~40c to single digits, likely due to the correction of initial illiquidity or data calibration errors as the market matured.

Significant divergence detected. Mainstream media (Axios, Independent, NDTV) are currently (Mar 19-20) reporting on a 'frenzy' or 'barrage' of Trump posts regarding the Iran situation, describing the frequency as 'blast after blast'. However, Polymarket pricing favors a conservative '100-119' (~14-17 posts/day) or even lower '80-99', contradicting the high-frequency 'crisis mode' activity described in the news.

Visit the Polymarket page for this event to analyze the order book depth and bid-ask spreads for top options like '200+' vs '120-139'. Combine this with recent user discussions regarding Trump's mid-March posting behavior to assess if the current odds accurately price in the risk of a sudden 'Retruth' spam event.

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