Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)
Parlays|$48.0k Vol|
time80 days 9 hrs

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 04.25 14:08
Top Undervalued
+7¢
Pause–Pause–Pause(No)
+5.1¢
Other(Yes)
+0.6¢
Pause–Cut–Cut(Yes)

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) AI analysis: • +7¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As of late April 2026, market expectations for Fed rate cuts over the next three meetings (April, Ju...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner
Elections|$29.4k Vol|
time2 days 9 hrs

West Virginia Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+0.6¢
Tom Willis(Yes)
+0.4¢
Alexander Gaasserud(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than four days left until the May 12 West Virginia Republican primary, incumbent Senator S...
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AI Analysis
West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Politics|$124.2k Vol|
time2 days 9 hrs

West Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
Jeffrey Kessler(Yes)
+2¢
Zachary Shrewsbury(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than 3 days until the West Virginia Democratic Senate primary, the race is essentially ove...
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Movers
May 6, 2026 - May 9, 2026, Zachary Shrewsbury's price dropped from 17.5c to 5.5c, while Jeffrey Kessler's price rose from 83.5c to 95.5c, as the primary approaches and the market's consensus on Kessler locking in the victory strengthened, eliminating uncertainty premiums. April 15, 2026 - April 16, 2026, Zachary Shrewsbury's price surged from 11.5c to 39.5c (and further to 46c by the 18th), while Jeffrey Kessler's price plummeted from 75.5c to 49.5c. This was due to a major shift in the race, likely a crucial endorsement or breakthrough poll for Shrewsbury that shattered the expectation of Kessler's invincibility. March 8, 2026 - March 12, 2026, Rio Phillips's price crashed from 3.5c to 0.3c, as the market confirmed his value is zero likely due to ballot qualification deadlines passing or news confirming his exit/ineligibility. February 10, 2026 - February 11, 2026, Rio Phillips's price crashed from 39c to 21c, likely a delayed market correction recognizing his status as a fringe candidate, especially following the formal entry of heavyweight Jeffrey Kessler.
AI Analysis
Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final
Culture|$665.4k Vol|
time2 days 9 hrs

Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

Top Undervalued
+3¢
San Marino(Yes)
Arbitrage Opportunity
7¢
Arbitrage
113.8%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'Yes' shares for all 15 options. Plan Description: This event dictates exactly 10 countries will advance. The current total cost to buy one 'Yes' share...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the Eurovision First Semi-Final rules, exactly 10 countries will advance to the final. ...
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Movers
2026-05-05 to 2026-05-08, Poland's price surged from 47c to 60c before settling at 56.5c, likely due to an unexpectedly strong final rehearsal performance or positive media buzz. 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-07, Montenegro's price dropped from 55.5c to 43.5c and then rebounded to 49.5c, likely due to a poor rehearsal performance diminishing market confidence, followed by a slight correction. 2026-05-05 to 2026-05-06, Moldova's price dropped sharply from 93c to 80c before rebounding slightly to 86.5c, likely driven by underwhelming rehearsal performances or a shift in media reviews. 2026-04-30 to 2026-05-08, Croatia's price steadily climbed from 77.5c to 92c, likely as market confidence grew regarding its stage presentation and rehearsal reception leading up to the semi-final. 2026-04-30 to 2026-05-01, Georgia's price surged from 34.5c to 50c, likely due to excellent rehearsal performances or leaked rehearsal footage boosting market expectations. 2026-04-28 to 2026-04-30, Greece's price crashed from 97.2c to 83.75c and then recovered to 97.3c, driven by short-term sentiment volatility surrounding rehearsal performances and subsequent odds corrections. 2026-03-06 to 2026-03-10, Belgium's price surged from 38.5c to 51.5c, driven by a sudden recovery in confidence regarding its qualification chances, likely due to rehearsal leaks or odds corrections, reversing previous bearish trends. 2026-03-07 to 2026-03-09, Lithuania's price rose from 68c to 78.5c, continuing its strong momentum from the selection season and further solidifying qualification expectations. 2026-02-09 to 2026-02-11, Lithuania's price surged from 56c to 69.5c, likely due to a positive market reaction to a newly revealed entry during the ongoing National Selection season. 2026-02-09 to 2026-02-11, Belgium's price dropped from 70c to 59.5c, likely driven by tepid sentiment regarding early information reveals.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
Pause–Pause–Pause
YesNo
82¢
18¢
75¢
25¢
+7¢
Other
YesNo
3.9¢
96.1¢
91¢
+5.1¢

Expand to view all 5 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
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Bitcoin
US 10Y Yield
Gold
S&P 500
DXY
The combination of the Fed's interest rate decisions over three consecutive meetings will fundamentally dictate the short- to medium-term macroeconomic liquidity environment. Specific path distributions (e.g., consecutive cuts versus prolonged pauses) will directly and strongly drive trends in US Treasury yields and the US Dollar Index, while significantly affecting the pricing models of risk and safe-haven assets like the S&P 500, Gold, and Bitcoin.

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