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Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Pause–Pause–Pause
YesNo
Pause–Cut–Pause
YesNo
Pause–Pause–Cut
YesNo
Other
YesNo
Pause–Cut–Cut
YesNo
Cut–Pause–Cut
YesNo
Cut–Pause–Pause
YesNo
Cut–Cut–Pause
YesNo
Cut–Cut–Cut
YesNo
AI Insights:
10 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Today is March 18, 2026, and the FOMC meeting is underway. The latest consensus from markets and analysts (e.g., FOREX.com, MarketPulse) is that the Fed will adopt a 'Hawkish Hold' stance due to spiking oil prices and rebounding inflation risks from the Iran/Middle East conflict. Mainstream financial media note that traders are now pricing in a >75% probability of rates remaining unchanged through June. However, the prediction market currently prices 'Pause–Pause–Pause' at only 66c, showing a clear lag. With the probability of cuts in March and April now negligible (<5%), the core debate is on June. Given the 'Higher for Longer' macro backdrop, the likelihood of a June cut (PPC) is overpriced and should be marked down to ~20c. The 'Other' option, which includes potential hikes, retains a ~7c risk premium due to the stagflationary risks from the war.
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Arbitrage|Direct Arb
Arbitrage Plan:
Buy Yes on all options
Plan Description:
The sum of the Yes prices for all options is approximately 98.3 cents (0.66 + 0.215 + 0.0605 + ~0.047 for long shots). Buying a complete set of all options costs less than 100, guaranteeing a risk-free return of ~1.7% upon expiration. With about 90 days remaining, this translates to an annualized yield of roughly 6.8%.Sign up to view more information
Arbitrage: 1¢
|Annualized yield: 6.8%
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
Gold
S&P 500
Bitcoin
This event has extremely high hedging value. The interest rate path over the next three months (the combination of cuts, pauses, or hikes) directly determines cost of capital and liquidity expectations. If the actual path is more hawkish than the market expects (e.g., more pauses), it will directly push up Treasury yields (US 10Y) and boost the Dollar (DXY), while pressuring risk assets like equities (S&P 500), Gold, and Crypto (Bitcoin). This is a core instrument for macro trading.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. According to reports from sources like FOREX.com on March 17, 2026, the CME interest rate futures market implies a >75% probability of holding rates through June. However, the corresponding option on Polymarket (Pause–Pause–Pause) is priced at only 66%, an underestimation of about 9 percentage points. This suggests the prediction market has not fully priced in the latest hawkish news and shifting inflation expectations due to the war.
