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July Meeting
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June Meeting
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September Meeting
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October Meeting
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December Meeting
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April Meeting
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March Meeting
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AI Insights:
2 hours ago UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As of March 18, 2026, the FOMC meeting is underway. Breaking geopolitical news (US-Iran conflict spiking oil prices) has exacerbated 'stagflation' risks, forcing a reassessment of the rate cut path. 1. **Short-term (Mar-Jun)**: The Fed is almost certain to hold in March and April due to inflationary uncertainty from the energy shock (March contract at 0.6c aligns with consensus). The June pricing (32c) appears slightly optimistic; the Fed will likely need Q2 data to assess sticky inflation, putting fair value closer to 22c. 2. **Medium-term (Sep-Oct)**: Mainstream analysts (e.g., JP Morgan) now project only 'one rate cut in 2026, later in the year.' This makes September the earliest viable window, warranting a fair value around 52c (a coin flip). 3. **Long-term (Dec)**: Despite near-term headwinds, the probability of at least one defensive cut by year-end remains high (75c) to prevent a recession caused by the double whammy of high rates and energy shocks, aligning with the 'one cut' consensus.
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Rule Risk
There is a massive contradiction between the title, the options, and the rules. The title is 'Fed rate cut by...?', but the options list 'June Meeting', 'March Meeting', 'April Meeting', which implies a multiple-choice structure. However, the rule text explicitly describes a binary 'Yes/No' condition based on a rate cut occurring specifically between Dec 16, 2025, and the Jan 2026 meeting. This mismatch creates extreme resolution risk: users might bet on 'June Meeting' thinking it refers to a specific timing, while the underlying rules dictate a binary outcome based on January activity. This is a structurally broken event.
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
S&P 500
Fed rate decisions directly impact global asset pricing. If the market anticipates a rate cut in January 2026 (as defined by the rules), this would exert direct downward pressure on US Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield), typically boosting equities (S&P 500) and weighing on the Dollar Index (DXY). While this is a prediction for a specific meeting, an unexpected outcome (e.g., a surprise cut amidst inflation or a refusal to cut during a downturn) would cause medium-level swing impacts (Score 3). Gold and Bitcoin would also be affected by changes in liquidity expectations.
Movers
Mar 16, 2026 - Mar 18, 2026, September Meeting rebounded from 53.15c to 60.85c, and October Meeting stabilized around 60.85c. The reason is a market stabilization following the initial 'stagflation panic'; investors are repricing the likelihood of 'one cut later in the year', recovering some defensive cut expectations for year-end despite the collapse of early-cut hopes.
Mar 12, 2026 - Mar 16, 2026, prices collapsed across the board. September Meeting plummeted from 80.8c to 53.15c (>27c drop), and October Meeting fell from 82.95c to 62.5c. The driver was the outbreak of the 'US-Iran conflict' pushing oil near $100, sparking severe inflation fears. This triggered panic selling of early-to-mid term cut bets, firmly establishing a 'Higher for Longer' narrative.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists, primarily in mid-year (June) pricing. The prediction market implies a ~32% probability of a cut by the June Meeting. However, as of March 18, mainstream institutional consensus (e.g., JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs), reacting to the energy shock, has shifted to forecasting 'only one rate cut in 2026, occurring later in the year.' This implies the probability of a June (Q2) cut is negligible in the eyes of experts, making the market's 32c pricing appear overvalued relative to this new hawkish consensus.
