All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
Michaelangelo Hamilton
YesNo
Ashley B. Moody
YesNo
Jake Lang
YesNo
A.C. Toulme
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.15 23:28 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody (appointed 2025) commands dominant support from the GOP establishment, Governor DeSantis, and the Trump orbit. Challenger Michaelangelo Hamilton (born Oct 1999) will be ~26 in 2026, falling short of the Constitutional age requirement (30) for US Senators, rendering his win probability 0%. While Jake Lang has name recognition post-pardon, he poses little threat to the incumbent. A technical risk exists for Moody backers: if opposition fails to qualify and the primary is cancelled, the market resolves to 'Other', wiping out Moody 'Yes' positions. However, shorting Hamilton (Buying No) wins in all scenarios.
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Divergence
Significant market mispricing: The market assigns a ~10.5% win probability to Michaelangelo Hamilton, whereas his actual win probability is 0% due to Constitutional age ineligibility (he is 26, requirement is 30).
