According to the latest weather forecasts (e.g., NWS and WeatherBug), the high temperature for April...

While the title mentions 'Denver,' the resolution rules explicitly specify data from the Buckley Space Force Base Station (KBKF) in Aurora. Traders relying solely on the title and checking standard Denver stations (like the international airport) may fall into a trap due to local temperature variations.

Between March 29 and March 31, 2026, the price of 56-57°F surged from 11c to a peak of 32c, and 58-59°F jumped from 9c to a high of 37c, while '45°F or below' plummeted from 25c to under 1c. This occurred because, as April 1 approaches, updated meteorological models confirmed the daytime high will reach around 56-59°F, eliminating the earlier possibility of extreme cold.

Based on the latest NWS and mainstream meteorological models, the high temperature at Chicago O'Hare...

March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '52°F or higher' plummeted from 49.5c to 0.75c, as short-term meteorological models ruled out extreme warming forecasts for early April. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '44-45°F' fluctuated upwards from 19.5c to around 34c, due to the forecast models converging highly on this temperature range as the settlement date approached. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '42-43°F' rose from 19c to 31.5c as updated forecasts strongly supported a cooler high. On March 29, 2026, the price of '33°F or below' plummeted from 25.5c to under 1c, and '36-37°F' also fell sharply, as updated meteorological models ruled out extreme cold scenarios. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '46-47°F' dropped from 27.5c to 14.5c, reflecting the convergence of short-term weather forecasts toward a lower, more concentrated range.

There is a slight divergence. The leading option on Polymarket is 44-45°F (34%), but the National Weather Service (NWS) and mainstream forecasts predominantly project a point high between 41°F and 43°F. The market is pricing in a warmer bias, likely hedging against the possibility of afternoon cloud clearing driving temperatures slightly higher.

Based on the latest forecast data, the highest temperature for Sao Paulo (Guarulhos International Ai...

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the 27°C option experienced severe volatility, dropping from 34.5c to 15.5c before rebounding to 30c, reflecting the uncertainty in forecasts as the date approaches. March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the 25°C option climbed steadily from 8.5c to 27.5c, indicating forecasts are converging towards 25°C. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the '30°C or higher' option crashed from 25c to 2c before rebounding to 18.45c and falling again, reflecting fluctuations in the probability of extreme heat in the forecasts. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the 28°C option steadily dropped from 36.5c to 20.5c and lower, indicating that forecasts are leaning towards lower temperatures. March 29, 2026 - March 30, 2026, the 29°C option fell from 27.5c to 15.5c and continued downward, while the 23°C and 24°C options also showed similar volatility. This suggests that continuous updates in short-term weather models are causing divergence and rapid adjustments.

With about 1 day left until April 1, weather forecast models have further converged. The high temper...

From 04:30 on Mar 30, 2026, to 15:20 on Mar 30, 2026, the price of '66-67°F' dropped from 43.5c to 22c before recovering; '64-65°F' rose from 12.5c to 17.5c; '70-71°F' also saw significant volatility. This was due to minor adjustments in short-term weather forecast models causing market expectations to swing between adjacent temperature ranges. From 19:50 on Mar 29, 2026, to 22:00 on Mar 29, 2026, the Yes price of '59°F or below' crashed from 25c to 1.5c, and '60-61°F' dropped from 15.5c to 5c. This is because weather forecast models converged as the date approached, ruling out the possibility of extreme low temperatures.

It is already the early morning of April 1 in Shenzhen. The latest weather forecasts for Shenzhen Ba...

March 30, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the price of '27°C' surged from 14.5c to 39.5c, and '28°C' jumped from 17.5c to 38.5c. This was caused by major weather models strongly converging their forecasts for Shenzhen's high to 80°F-82°F (around 27°C-28°C) as the resolution date approached, causing capital to concentrate on these two most likely outcomes. March 29, 2026 - March 31, 2026, the prices of '23°C' and '24°C' plummeted from 19.5c to 0.2c and 1.65c respectively. This was due to the absence of incoming cold fronts, with real-time conditions ruling out the possibility of such low daytime temperatures.