The rules explicitly rely on a specific data tracker (xtracker) and include specific conditions for deleted posts (must survive ~5 minutes to be captured) and replies (only count if recorded on the main feed). This creates a risk of discrepancy between manual counting and the official tracker's figures, potentially leading to resolution disputes.

This is a typical trivia and data-tracking prediction market. Ordinary people do not usually track or predict the exact number of tweets the official White House X account will post in a given week, making it a highly novel and niche market.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option surged from 15c to 35c, and the 140-159 option rose from 11.5c to 24c, while the 180-199 option plummeted from 39c to 16.5c. The reason is that as time progresses, real-time tracking data indicated a slower posting rate, causing the market to significantly cool down expectations for extremely high post counts (180+) and adjust them downwards to the 140-179 range. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 41c to 12.5c, the 160-179 option dropped from 41.5c to 27.5c, and lower frequency options like 80-99 also crashed from 41c to under 1c. The reason is that initial lack of liquidity and skewed market maker quotes were corrected by the influx of real traders, aligning prices with expectations of a higher posting frequency.

There is moderate rule risk in this market. Notably, it excludes standard replies but counts main feed replies. Furthermore, resolution depends on a specific third-party tracker rather than simple counting, and deleted posts count if caught within ~5 minutes. These specific parameters can lead to miscalculations for uninformed bettors.

While tracking the exact number of Musk's tweets isn't an everyday thought for the general public, his high activity on X is often a topic of discussion. This type of market has a niche audience on prediction platforms, making it somewhat novel but not incredibly bizarre.

May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option fell sharply from 25.5c to 12.5c before a slight rebound, while the 100-119 option surged to 21.65c before dropping to 11.1c. The reason is that after observing the actual posting data from the first day, the market repeatedly adjusted Musk's posting pace, shifting away from higher frequency assumptions. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 100-119 option surged from 9.8c to 21.6c before pulling back to 15.45c, and the 80-99 option rose from 2.8c to 15.65c before dropping to 6.7c. The reason is that as the tracking period approached, traders heavily revised down their total expectations based on Musk's recent lower actual posting frequency, but made slight reverse corrections after the first day's data. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the options in the 180-199, 200-219, 220-239, 240-259, and 260-279 ranges crashed, plummeting from roughly 38c-40c to under 12c, with some falling below 5c. The reason is a market correction of early distorted pricing caused by low liquidity. Traders adjusted their expectations based on more realistic daily tweet frequency data, discounting the likelihood of excessively high posting volumes.

Moderate risk exists. Settlement relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker), and explicitly states that 'replies' accidentally recorded on the main feed and 'deleted posts' surviving for ~5 minutes will count. This may cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and the native feed observed by users, leading to disputes.

Quite exotic. The general public rarely thinks about or predicts the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes during a specific week. This is a highly niche, entertainment-driven prediction market lacking broad real-world significance.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '100-119' option plummeted from 36.5c to around 14c-16c, and the '80-99' option plummeted from 27.6c to 5c-7c. The reason is that the market returned to rationality after short-term liquidity fluctuations, or an early surge in posting frequency caused the probabilities of lower ranges to be rapidly downgraded. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the '200+' option surged from 9.5c to 25.45c, and the '180-199' option rose from 8.35c to 21.75c. The reason is the market pricing in an extremely heavy volume of posts from Trump during this week, likely triggered by breaking news or intense campaign activity. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026: Due to illiquidity and capital reallocation, several options (like 120-139) experienced large price swings, and massive spreads remain across the board.

Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.

High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '<40' option recovered from 42.5c to 53.5c, while '40-64' dropped slightly from 42.5c to 34.5c. This is due to market confirmation of his continued low posting frequency as the statistical window approaches. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the '<40' option dropped significantly from a high of 68.5c to 42.5c (currently recovering to ~50c), while the '40-64' option rebounded strongly from 23c to 42.5c. The reason is that over time and with the recovery of his posting rhythm, market expectations corrected, anticipating Musk's posting pace to likely bounce back and stabilize in or near the 40-64 range. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<40' option surged from 46c to 68.5c, while the '40-64' option plummeted from 45.5c to 23c. This is because, approaching the statistical window, the market observed a lower recent posting frequency from Musk, thus significantly increasing the probability expectations for the lowest volume bracket.