Weather prediction markets are relatively common on certain prediction platforms, but for the general public, forecasting the exact high temperature of a specific city (Busan, South Korea) on a specific date remains a rather niche micro-event lacking broad public discourse.

While checking the weather is a daily routine, betting on the exact high temperature range at a specific weather station on a specific day is extremely rare in traditional finance or mainstream life, making it a typical long-tail and novelty topic in prediction markets.

April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the Yes price of 24°C surged from 34c to 95.5c as the actual recorded daytime high became clear and locked at 24°C close to resolution. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the Yes price of 23°C plummeted from 32.5c to 0.05c because the actual temperature exceeded 23°C, rendering this option invalid. April 19, 2026 - April 20, 2026, the Yes price of 25°C crashed from 30.5c to 7.5c as the daily high failed to reach 25°C, heavily diminishing its probability. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 23°C surged from 20.5c to 32.5c, as updated meteorological models captured a potential warming trend approaching resolution. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 20°C plummeted from 18.5c to 1.45c, as short-term forecasts ruled out the likelihood of lower temperatures. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026, the Yes price of 21°C crashed from 21c to 8c, due to the market's upward adjustment of the expected temperature median to the 22°C-23°C range.

Moderate novelty. While weather forecasting is a common daily activity, betting on the exact daily high temperature of a specific city on a specific date in a prediction market is a relatively niche topic. Aside from locals or meteorology enthusiasts, the general public wouldn't typically ponder the exact answer to this.

April 20, 2026 (04:03) - April 20, 2026 (06:13): The price of 32°C surged from 22.5c to 98.55c, while the price of 33°C plummeted from 70.5c to 1.05c, as it became mid-afternoon in Taipei and actual observations confirmed the maximum temperature peaked at 32°C without reaching 33°C. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of 31°C plunged from 27.5c to 15.5c, as the approaching resolution date increased the likelihood of higher temperatures (32°C and above), shifting expectations upward. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of 28°C crashed from 11.5c to 0.65c, as weather forecasts clearly indicated temperatures would be much higher, effectively ruling out this option. April 18, 2026 - April 19, 2026: The price of '35°C or higher' dropped from 14.05c to 2.05c, as the probability of extreme heat was ruled out by forecasting models as the date approached.

The title asks for Seoul's highest temperature, but the rules explicitly state that resolution is based on the 'Incheon Intl Airport Station (RKSI)'. Temperatures at Incheon Airport (coastal) often differ from central Seoul, creating a trap for traders relying on generic Seoul forecasts. Additionally, temperatures are evaluated in whole degrees Celsius without accounting for later revisions.

From 2026-04-19 04:38 to 2026-04-19 06:48, the price of the 18°C or higher option plummeted from 32c to 14.5c. This drop was due to updated short-term weather forecasts ruling out the possibility of anomalous high temperatures, narrowing the expected range to 15-16°C.

This is a niche prediction focused on the update strategy of a specific esport (CS2). While a regular topic for CS players and esports enthusiasts, it is exotic to the general public, relying on specific knowledge of Valve's update cadence and map pool rotation history.