Between 06:18 and 07:23 on April 15, 2026, the Yes price for 24°C surged from 21.5c to 32c, while the Yes price for 30°C plummeted from 13c to 0.8c. This was driven by the latest weather forecasts nearing the resolution date, which confidently ruled out extreme high temperatures, causing funds to concentrate on the most likely outcome of 24°C.

There is moderate risk. The core definition relies on 'FDV' (Fully Diluted Valuation), which requires accurate total supply data that can be opaque or disputed at launch. Additionally, the 'most liquid price source' is slightly subjective; while typically DexScreener or Coingecko, early price volatility is high, and the specific timestamp (4:00 PM ET) pricing could be contentious.

April 13, 2026 - April 15, 2026, the price of the $50M option skyrocketed from 13.5c to 54c, the $40M option jumped from 14.5c to 29.5c, and the $70M option rose from 15c to 25c. This was caused by irrational buying or liquidity dry-ups, leading to a severe price inversion for higher valuation options and breaking the normal probability distribution logic. April 10, 2026 - April 13, 2026, the $200M option slowly drifted down from 4c to 1.5c, reflecting a further loss of confidence in hyper-bullish valuations, but major liquidity had not yet corrected to reflect the latest presale valuation data.

There is a severe divergence between market pricing and fundamental logic. The current prediction market implies that the probability of FDV exceeding $50M (54%) is much higher than the probability of it exceeding $30M (27%), which is mathematically impossible. This inversion highlights the extreme lack of liquidity and effective market-making mechanisms in this specific market.

There is a severe contradiction in the rules. The first paragraph states 'any YouTube video' posted before April 30 counts, but the final note strictly restricts the market to his 'next video to be posted'. If the immediate next video fails but a subsequent one succeeds, the resolution will be highly disputed.