Highest temperature in Busan on May 14?
Weather|$13.8k Vol|
time17 hrs 59 mins

Highest temperature in Busan on May 14? - AI Mispricing Alert

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.12 06:48
Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
23°C(Yes)
+4.8¢
26°C(No)
+3.1¢
27°C(No)

Highest temperature in Busan on May 14? AI analysis: • +5.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Busan Gimhae International Airport...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Human moon landing in 2026?
Tech|$1.9m Vol|
time231 days 5 hrs

Human moon landing in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+3¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
3¢
Arbitrage
4.88%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' (current price ~96.95c) Plan Description: The probability of 'Yes' occurring is currently 0. Buying 'No' at around 96.95 cents provides a near...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
It is currently mid-May 2026, with less than 8 months remaining in the year. NASA's Artemis III miss...
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AI Analysis
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
Elections|$7.6m Vol|
time139 days 5 hrs

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

Top Undervalued
+57.5¢
United Russia (ER)(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
62¢
Arbitrage
437.5%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on United Russia (ER) Plan Description: Currently, ER's No price is around 37.5c. Because the market rule compares 'net seats gained', it is...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
The core logic remains completely unchanged: this is a 'Net Gain' (Delta) market, not a 'Total Seats...
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Rule Risk
The core rule focuses on 'Most Seats Gained' rather than 'Most Total Seats', which is a significant cognitive trap. For the dominant United Russia party (with 324 seats), gaining more seats is mathematically much harder than for smaller parties with a lower baseline. Additionally, the reliance on 'consensus of credible reporting' in the context of Russian elections—which may lack independent observers—introduces a risk of dispute over the validity of the results or data sources.
Divergence
There is a severe divergence in the prediction market, primarily due to traders failing to read the rules carefully. Mainstream logic and common sense dictate that a ruling party already holding over 70% of the seats cannot realistically outpace smaller opposition or emerging parties in the metric of 'net seats gained'. Yet, the market still assigns ER a >60% probability of winning, driven purely by retail bettors confusing 'winning the most total seats' with 'gaining the most net seats'.
AI Analysis
2026 IPL Champion
Sports|$828.5k Vol|
time17 days 5 hrs

2026 IPL Champion

Top Undervalued
+0.5¢
Royal Challengers Bengaluru(Yes)
+0.4¢
Delhi Capitals(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest trading data and regular season progress, Gujarat Titans and Royal Challengers B...
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AI Analysis
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Geopolitics|$827.3k Vol|
time17 days 5 hrs

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Top Undervalued
+15.5¢
June 30(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
16¢
Arbitrage
150.3%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy No on the June 30 option Plan Description: Given that the probability of a permanent peace agreement between Israel and Iran in the next month ...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
A 'permanent peace deal' between Israel and Iran is practically impossible in the short term. The ho...
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Rule Risk
The main risk lies in interpreting 'permanent peace' versus a long-term ceasefire. Middle Eastern diplomatic language can be intentionally ambiguous. If an agreement stops short of explicitly using the word 'permanently' but establishes a long-term cessation of hostilities, there could be significant resolution disputes over whether it meets the strict market criteria.
Exotics
Given the deep-rooted existential hostility and lack of direct diplomatic relations between Israel and Iran, forecasting a permanent, finalized peace treaty within a few months (April to June 2026) is highly unconventional. Most geopolitical analysts consider this a near-impossible tail event rather than a standard forecasting scenario, making it a highly exotic market.
Hedging
Gold
Crude Oil
S&P 500
A permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran would be a historic breakthrough, completely removing the tail risk of an all-out Middle Eastern war and threats to the Strait of Hormuz. Crude Oil would experience a severe structural sell-off due to the massive evaporation of the geopolitical risk premium. Concurrently, drastically reduced safe-haven demand would pressure Gold, while providing a significant risk-on boost to global equities like the S&P 500.
Divergence
Mainstream experts and media universally believe that the fundamental contradictions between Israel and Iran cannot be reconciled in the foreseeable future, assigning a 0% probability to a formal 'permanent peace deal'. However, the prediction market still implies a 16.5% probability for the June 30 Yes option. This divergence is likely due to some retail traders misinterpreting temporary de-escalation statements as qualifying permanent peace agreements, indicating a clear market mispricing.
AI Analysis
Elon Musk # tweets May 14 - May 16, 2026?
Culture|$176.8k Vol|
time2 days 21 hrs

Elon Musk # tweets May 14 - May 16, 2026?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
<40(No)
+2.5¢
65-89(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Elon Musk's posting frequency continues to show some volatility as the statistical window approaches...
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Rule Risk
Moderate risk. Resolution relies on a specific external tracker (xtracker). The rules regarding replies (only main feed replies count) and deleted posts (must remain for ~5 mins to be captured) are complex and may cause discrepancies between the tracker and user observations.
Exotics
High novelty. This is a typical entertainment and crypto-community-focused novelty market. Outside of specific prediction market participants, the general public does not naturally ponder or predict the exact number of tweets an individual makes over a random 2-day period.
Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the '<40' option dropped significantly from a high of 68.5c to 42.5c, while the '40-64' option rebounded strongly from 23c to 42.5c. The reason is that over time and with the recovery of his posting rhythm, market expectations corrected, anticipating Musk's posting pace to likely recover towards the 40-64 range. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<40' option surged from 46c to 68.5c, while the '40-64' option plummeted from 45.5c to 23c. This is because, approaching the statistical window, the market observed a lower recent posting frequency from Musk, thus significantly increasing the probability expectations for the lowest volume bracket.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
23°C
YesNo
4.5¢
95.5¢
10¢
90¢
+5.5¢
26°C
YesNo
24.75¢
75.25¢
20¢
80¢
+4.8¢

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⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

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