Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17? - AI Found +24.5¢ Mispricing

Weather|$32.5k Vol|

15 hrs 51 mins

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17? - AI Found +24.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 05.15 11:28

Top Undervalued

+24.5¢

25°C(No)

+10.5¢

28°C(Yes)

+10.5¢

27°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 17? AI analysis: • +24.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:

Recent weather forecasts indicate rain and thunderstorms for Hong Kong on May 17, 2026, with expecte...

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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$17.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 17?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe International Air...

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Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city falls under standard meteorological forecasting rather than an absurd or surreal topic, though it remains a relatively niche and routine numerical betting market.

Explain like I'm 5: How does Wunderground confirm the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe Airport on May 17 for market resolution?

Politics|$14.2k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Donald Trump's posting frequency on Truth Social varies but generally falls between 100 to 180 posts...

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The rules specify a dedicated tracker and exclude normal replies while including main feed replies. Also, deleted posts count if they survive for roughly 5 minutes. These subtle nuances may cause discrepancies between manual user tracking and the official resolution source.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a public figure within a specific week is a highly niche and novelty market. The average person wouldn't usually consider tracking such precise intervals.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: Multiple options (e.g., 80-99, 60-79, 100-119, 180-199) experienced a sharp drop of over 10c in their Yes prices (e.g., the 60-79 option fell from 26.5c to 3.1c). This was due to the sum of Yes prices being heavily overinflated initially, and arbitrageurs stepping in to correct the market pricing towards fundamentals.

What is the average number of Truth Social posts (including reposts and quote posts) Donald Trump has made per week over the last month, and how does it compare to the bracket options provided in this market?

Culture|$1.6m Vol|

Survivor 50 Winner

Top Undervalued

Aubry Bracco(Yes)

Rizo Velovic(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days until the finale broadcast, Aubry Bracco's dominance is unshakeable, trading b...

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Retrieve the latest airing and filming updates for Survivor Season 50, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing if the current odds are overreacting to "spoiler" rumors from communities like Reddit (r/SpoiledSurvivor), and update the assessment of fair value for top contenders (e.g., Benjamin "Coach" Wade or Christian Hubicki) by comparing their prices against their "Edgic" (editing logic) viability.

Retrieve the latest airing and filming updates for Survivor Season 50, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing if the current odds are overreacting to "spoiler" rumors from communities like Reddit (r/SpoiledSurvivor), and update the assessment of fair value for top contenders (e.g., Benjamin "Coach" Wade or Christian Hubicki) by comparing their prices against their "Edgic" (editing logic) viability.

Politics|$200.0k Vol|

Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Daniel Cameron(No)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Simultaneously buy NO on Andy Barr (2.3c) and NO on Daniel Cameron (97.55c) for a total cost of 99.85c. Plan Description: This is a strictly risk-free arbitrage. Regardless of who wins the primary, the minimum guaranteed p...

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Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 3 days until the 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate primary, Andy Barr's price remains i...

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[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the "Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner" to analyze the order book and the relatively low volume ($12,908); assess whether the bid-ask spreads for top contenders like Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron are too wide and if the current odds reflect true market sentiment or liquidity risk.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the "Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner" to analyze the order book and the relatively low volume ($12,908); assess whether the bid-ask spreads for top contenders like Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron are too wide and if the current odds reflect true market sentiment or liquidity risk.

Politics|$266.1k Vol|

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current Yes price has dropped to 0.5c. Given that there are less than two months until expiratio...

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A sitting Federal Reserve Chair being criminally charged by the federal government is an extremely rare and extreme scenario. This qualifies as a typical 'Black Swan' or tail-risk event; while not entirely unimaginable given the current polarized political climate, it deviates significantly from normative expectations.

If Jerome Powell were actually federally charged, it would trigger extreme market panic, representing a direct attack on the Fed's independence and collapsing confidence in US monetary policy stability. This would cause a severe sell-off in equities (S&P 500), wild volatility in US 10Y Yields due to risk premiums or flight to safety, and major moves in DXY. This is a top-tier macro hedging event.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this Event to analyze the probability implied by the current 'Yes' price (likely extremely low). Assess the order book depth to estimate slippage risks for exiting large positions during volatility spikes, and determine if the current odds represent a mispricing given the macroeconomic context.

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

25°C

YesNo

39.5¢

60.5¢

15¢

85¢

0¢

+24.5¢

28°C

YesNo

4.5¢

95.5¢

15¢

85¢

+10.5¢

0¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.

Divergence

There is a significant divergence. Mainstream weather forecasts predict a high of around 24-26°C on May 17 due to expected rain showers. However, the prediction market heavily prices in 27°C (37.5%) and 28°C (25.5%), indicating that traders might be overlooking the cooling effect of the forecasted precipitation or over-relying on historical average high temperatures [3, 4].

Real-time High Yield Opportunities

Weather|$17.8k Vol|

Highest temperature in Wuhan on May 17?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

According to the latest weather forecasts, the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe International Air...

🔓 Log in to see more

Predicting the exact daily high temperature for a specific city falls under standard meteorological forecasting rather than an absurd or surreal topic, though it remains a relatively niche and routine numerical betting market.

Explain like I'm 5: How does Wunderground confirm the highest temperature at Wuhan Tianhe Airport on May 17 for market resolution?

Politics|$14.2k Vol|

Donald Trump # Truth Social posts May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

Donald Trump's posting frequency on Truth Social varies but generally falls between 100 to 180 posts...

🔓 Log in to see more

The rules specify a dedicated tracker and exclude normal replies while including main feed replies. Also, deleted posts count if they survive for roughly 5 minutes. These subtle nuances may cause discrepancies between manual user tracking and the official resolution source.

Predicting the exact number of social media posts by a public figure within a specific week is a highly niche and novelty market. The average person wouldn't usually consider tracking such precise intervals.

May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: Multiple options (e.g., 80-99, 60-79, 100-119, 180-199) experienced a sharp drop of over 10c in their Yes prices (e.g., the 60-79 option fell from 26.5c to 3.1c). This was due to the sum of Yes prices being heavily overinflated initially, and arbitrageurs stepping in to correct the market pricing towards fundamentals.

What is the average number of Truth Social posts (including reposts and quote posts) Donald Trump has made per week over the last month, and how does it compare to the bracket options provided in this market?

Culture|$1.6m Vol|

Survivor 50 Winner

Top Undervalued

Aubry Bracco(Yes)

Rizo Velovic(No)

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 4 days until the finale broadcast, Aubry Bracco's dominance is unshakeable, trading b...

🔓 Log in to see more

Retrieve the latest airing and filming updates for Survivor Season 50, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing if the current odds are overreacting to "spoiler" rumors from communities like Reddit (r/SpoiledSurvivor), and update the assessment of fair value for top contenders (e.g., Benjamin "Coach" Wade or Christian Hubicki) by comparing their prices against their "Edgic" (editing logic) viability.

Retrieve the latest airing and filming updates for Survivor Season 50, visit the Polymarket page to analyze the Order Book, specifically assessing if the current odds are overreacting to "spoiler" rumors from communities like Reddit (r/SpoiledSurvivor), and update the assessment of fair value for top contenders (e.g., Benjamin "Coach" Wade or Christian Hubicki) by comparing their prices against their "Edgic" (editing logic) viability.

Politics|$200.0k Vol|

Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner

Top Undervalued

Daniel Cameron(No)

Arbitrage Opportunity

Annualized yield

Arbitrage|Direct Arb

Arbitrage Plan: Simultaneously buy NO on Andy Barr (2.3c) and NO on Daniel Cameron (97.55c) for a total cost of 99.85c. Plan Description: This is a strictly risk-free arbitrage. Regardless of who wins the primary, the minimum guaranteed p...

🔓 Log in to see more

Undervalued Options Insights:

With less than 3 days until the 2026 Kentucky Republican Senate primary, Andy Barr's price remains i...

🔓 Log in to see more

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the "Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner" to analyze the order book and the relatively low volume ($12,908); assess whether the bid-ask spreads for top contenders like Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron are too wide and if the current odds reflect true market sentiment or liquidity risk.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Retrieve the latest data from the Polymarket page for the "Kentucky Republican Senate Primary Winner" to analyze the order book and the relatively low volume ($12,908); assess whether the bid-ask spreads for top contenders like Andy Barr or Daniel Cameron are too wide and if the current odds reflect true market sentiment or liquidity risk.

Politics|$266.1k Vol|

Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?

Top Undervalued

Undervalued Options Insights:

The current Yes price has dropped to 0.5c. Given that there are less than two months until expiratio...

🔓 Log in to see more

A sitting Federal Reserve Chair being criminally charged by the federal government is an extremely rare and extreme scenario. This qualifies as a typical 'Black Swan' or tail-risk event; while not entirely unimaginable given the current polarized political climate, it deviates significantly from normative expectations.

If Jerome Powell were actually federally charged, it would trigger extreme market panic, representing a direct attack on the Fed's independence and collapsing confidence in US monetary policy stability. This would cause a severe sell-off in equities (S&P 500), wild volatility in US 10Y Yields due to risk premiums or flight to safety, and major moves in DXY. This is a top-tier macro hedging event.

[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Visit the Polymarket page for this Event to analyze the probability implied by the current 'Yes' price (likely extremely low). Assess the order book depth to estimate slippage risks for exiting large positions during volatility spikes, and determine if the current odds represent a mispricing given the macroeconomic context.

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