April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, the price of the >1.29ºC option surged from 9.5c to 32.1c, while the 1.25–1.29ºC option dropped from 68.0c to 53.6c. The reason is that preliminary climate proxy data (like ERA5) following the end of March indicated exceptionally high anomalies, significantly raising expectations that the final GISTEMP figure might exceed 1.29ºC. April 3, 2026 04:20 - April 3, 2026 06:30, the price of the >1.29ºC option surged from 8.2c to 23.7c. This is likely due to new data analysis or adjusted forecasts hinting at a higher risk of an upward revision in the final GISTEMP release, causing capital to quickly flow into the highest temperature bracket. March 31, 2026 - April 1, 2026, the price of the 1.25–1.29ºC option surged from 50.3c to 68.0c, while the 1.20–1.24ºC option plunged from 34.5c to 19.5c. The reason is that complete end-of-month climate proxy data confirmed the anomaly is highly likely to exceed 1.25ºC, causing a definitive shift in market consensus to the higher bracket. March 17, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the 1.15–1.19ºC option crashed from 35.5c to 12.5c, while the 1.25–1.29ºC option surged from 15.4c to 30c. The reason is that mid-March real-time climate monitoring data (e.g., ERA5) likely showed that global daily temperatures did not cool as expected and may have rebounded, causing the market to completely abandon the 'moderate cooling' thesis and pivot to betting on March being another historically hot month. March 13, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 1.25–1.29ºC option rallied from 15.4c to 21c before retracing to 16c, driven by Copernicus' February data release, then dampened by moderate forecasts. March 10, 2026 - March 16, 2026, the price of the 1.10–1.14ºC option crashed continuously from 25c to 12c, as the market realized the La Niña cooling effect was delayed, rotating capital into higher temperature brackets.

This is a science/climate prediction market. While not as mainstream as elections, monthly temperature records have become a regular topic for data enthusiasts and the prediction community due to rising climate awareness, so it's not extremely niche.

The Bank of Korea's interest rate decision directly impacts the Korean Won (KRW) and the Korean equity market (e.g., EWY ETF). An unexpected hike or cut would cause volatility in the KRW exchange rate and significantly affect the valuation of Korea's export-oriented companies. While it serves as a liquidity bellwether for Asia, its impact on global majors like the S&P 500 is relatively contained.

US CPI data is a critical input for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. An unexpectedly high inflation reading (e.g., ≥2.8%) would directly push up US Treasury yields (US 10Y Yield), strengthen the Dollar (DXY), and pressure risk assets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Conversely, a significantly lower-than-expected reading (≤2.0%) could be seen as a signal for rate cuts, benefiting equities and Gold. This is a high-correlation, high-impact macro hedging event.