The market relies on a specific tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com) as the primary resolution source rather than direct X data. This risks missed data (e.g., quickly deleted posts) or misclassification (counting some replies on the main feed). The fallback to X itself in case of tracker failure introduces a moderate risk of resolution disputes.

Predicting the exact number of tweets by a national leader in a specific one-week window is a very niche and trivial topic. It is highly specific and characteristic of a novelty market created primarily for betting purposes rather than mainstream forecasting.

May 14, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the '100-119' option surged from 17c to 32.5c, while the '60-79' option plummeted from 20c to 3.1c. The reason is that Zelenskyy's posting frequency remained high in the middle of the tracking period, causing the market to further upwardly revise the estimated total, shifting the focus to the 80-119 range. May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the '60-79' option plunged from 51c to 23.5c, while '80-99' climbed from 32c to 45.5c. The reason is that the actual posting pace in the first two days exceeded initial estimates, causing the market to shift its projected range up to 80-99. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the '40-59' option dropped from 27c to 6c, while the '60-79' option climbed from 38.5c to 51c, and '140-159' surged from 2c to 18c. The reason is that as the market period approached, predictions converged on the mainstream expectation of 8-10 posts per day, along with hedging for potential high-frequency event outbreaks.

The rules contain classic tracker pitfalls: while stating replies don't count, it includes a caveat that 'replies recorded on the main feed by the tracker will be counted'. This can cause significant discrepancies between Polymarket's API tracker and the native X user interface. Furthermore, the '~5 minutes' survival rule for deleted posts creates ambiguity that could trigger resolution disputes in edge cases.

This is a highly niche and exotic novelty market from a mainstream perspective. The general public would never organically wonder about the exact number of tweets a specific crypto figure makes in a random week. It exists purely to satisfy hyper-speculative and entertainment demands within the crypto degen community.

May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged massively from 21c to 75.5c, while the '<20' option plummeted from 79c to 10.5c. The reason is a significant increase in CZ's actual posting volume, likely hitting or breaching the 20-post threshold, causing a fundamental reversal in market expectations. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '<20' option surged from 25c to 53c, and the '20-39' option experienced high volatility, spiking from 25.5c to 64.5c before settling at 42c. Meanwhile, options for '40-59', '60-79', and higher tiers plummeted from around 25c to under 5c. The reason is the approaching start of the tracking period combined with observations of CZ's extremely low actual recent posting volume, causing a drastic downward revision in market expectations. Investors aggressively sold high-frequency options to buy the low-frequency ones.

The rules state that replies do not count, but add a conflicting caveat that replies recorded on the main feed by the tracker will count. Furthermore, deleted posts only count if captured by the tracker within a ~5-minute window. This creates a moderate resolution risk as manual verification may differ significantly from the official tracker data.

Predicting the exact bucket of X posts by a specific senator over an arbitrary one-week period is a highly niche, entertainment-driven topic. It falls entirely outside the scope of regular political or financial forecasting.

May 14, 2026, prices for '120-139' and '140-159' plummeted (e.g., '120-139' from 42.5c to 9c, '140-159' from 37.5c to 4c), while '100-119' sustained high levels after wild swings. This occurred because over half the time has passed, clarifying the total trajectory and prompting a sell-off in overly optimistic options. May 13, 2026, extreme high ranges like '180-199' and '200+' saw a brief spike (e.g., '200+' surged from 1.9c to 15.5c before dropping to 3.5c), likely triggered by a short burst of rapid posting that misled trading bots, which was quickly corrected. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, prices for mid-ranges like '120-139', '100-119', and '80-99' surged by over 20c, while '160-179' and higher ranges plummeted by over 15c, as the actual posting pace drastically reduced the likelihood of extreme high counts. May 11, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the '80-99' option plummeted from 28c to 17c, likely due to an observed acceleration in Cruz's posting frequency. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the '140-159' option surged from 19.5c to 30c, based on initial posting pacing indicating a higher final count. May 10, 2026 - May 11, 2026, the price of the '180-199' option crashed from 17.5c to 5.5c, before rebounding to 20c on the 12th, reflecting expectation volatility. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026, the price of the '40-59' option plummeted from 26c to 6.15c, as accumulated posts made this low range highly unlikely.

Moderate risk exists. Settlement relies on a specific third-party tracker (xtracker), and explicitly states that 'replies' accidentally recorded on the main feed and 'deleted posts' surviving for ~5 minutes will count. This may cause discrepancies between the tracker's data and the native feed observed by users, leading to disputes.

Quite exotic. The general public rarely thinks about or predicts the exact number of social media posts a public figure makes during a specific week. This is a highly niche, entertainment-driven prediction market lacking broad real-world significance.

May 13, 2026 - May 16, 2026, the '200+' option plummeted from 28.5c to 7.35c, '120-139' surged from 14c to 29.5c, and '160-179' surged from 16c to 28c. The reason is that as time passed and post tracker data updated, the actual pacing became clearer, leading the market to heavily discount extreme high-frequency expectations and concentrate funds in the 120-179 mid-to-high posting ranges. May 12, 2026 - May 15, 2026: The price of the '200+' option plummeted from 29c to 11.6c, and the '100-119' option plummeted from 36.5c to 11.8c, while the '160-179' option surged from 5.5c to 23c. The reason is that as time passed and actual post tracking data became clear, the market corrected its expectations for extreme high and low frequencies, concentrating capital in the 160-179 mid-high range. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026: The price of the '100-119' option plummeted from 36.5c to around 14c-16c, and the '80-99' option plummeted from 27.6c to 5c-7c. The reason is that the market returned to rationality after short-term liquidity fluctuations, or an early surge in posting frequency caused the probabilities of lower ranges to be rapidly downgraded. May 10, 2026 - May 12, 2026: The price of the '200+' option surged from 9.5c to 25.45c, and the '180-199' option rose from 8.35c to 21.75c. The reason is the market pricing in an extremely heavy volume of posts from Trump during this week, likely triggered by breaking news or intense campaign activity. May 9, 2026 - May 10, 2026: Due to illiquidity and capital reallocation, several options (like 120-139) experienced large price swings, and massive spreads remain across the board.

The rules explicitly rely on a specific data tracker (xtracker) and include specific conditions for deleted posts (must survive ~5 minutes to be captured) and replies (only count if recorded on the main feed). This creates a risk of discrepancy between manual counting and the official tracker's figures, potentially leading to resolution disputes.

This is a typical trivia and data-tracking prediction market. Ordinary people do not usually track or predict the exact number of tweets the official White House X account will post in a given week, making it a highly novel and niche market.

May 14, 2026 - May 15, 2026, the price of the 180-199 option rebounded from 16.5c to 28c, and the 200+ option recovered from 13.5c to 26c. The reason is that real-time tracking may have shown a renewed acceleration in the tweet rate, leading the market to upwardly revise expectations for a high post count. May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 160-179 option surged from 15c to 35c, and the 140-159 option rose from 11.5c to 24c, while the 180-199 option plummeted from 39c to 16.5c. The reason is that as time progresses, real-time tracking data indicated a slower posting rate, causing the market to significantly cool down expectations for extremely high post counts (180+) and adjust them downwards to the 140-179 range. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 140-159 option plummeted from 41c to 12.5c, the 160-179 option dropped from 41.5c to 27.5c, and lower frequency options like 80-99 also crashed from 41c to under 1c. The reason is that initial lack of liquidity and skewed market maker quotes were corrected by the influx of real traders, aligning prices with expectations of a higher posting frequency.