Zelenskyy # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?
Politics|$10.4k Vol|
time4 days 22 hrs

Zelenskyy # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026? - AI Found +13¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 15 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+13¢
80-99(Yes)
+11¢
100-119(No)
+9.5¢
60-79(Yes)

Zelenskyy # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026? AI analysis: • +13¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the latest price trends, with about two days into the tracking period, market expectations ...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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FIFA World Cup Group D Winner
Soccer|$43.6k Vol|
time43 days 6 hrs

FIFA World Cup Group D Winner

Top Undervalued
+1.5¢
USA(No)
+1.5¢
Paraguay(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
As the host nation and Pot 1 seed, the USMNT enjoys a home-field advantage, with its price stabilizi...
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AI Analysis
How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?
Tech|$12.9k Vol|
time6 days 6 hrs

How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?

Top Undervalued
+21.5¢
100-200h(Yes)
+12¢
8-50h(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Since the sum of the Yes prices across all options is 132%, the market shows significant capital ine...
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Rule Risk
The rules strictly define 'failure' as a two-minute period where the package counter does not increase. This means individual robots could break down, but as long as others push a package within two minutes, no failure is triggered. Additionally, Figure can voluntarily end the stream early to lock in the elapsed runtime, giving them significant control over the outcome.
Exotics
This is a specific technical question regarding a robotics startup's livestream demo. While closely watched within AI and deep-tech circles, the general public would not naturally ponder the exact failure-free runtime of these specific robots, making it somewhat niche and novel.
AI Analysis
When will Trump leave China?
Politics|$147.7k Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

When will Trump leave China?

Top Undervalued
+0.7¢
May 15(No)
+0.3¢
May 16(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
Today is May 14, 2026. The price for the 'May 15' option is extremely high (over 99 cents), indicati...
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Rule Risk
Moderate rule risk exists. The primary traps are the timezone dependency (must be resolved using China Standard Time) and the strict physical definition of a 'visit' (explicitly excluding airspace while including terrestrial and maritime territories). Edge cases like airport layovers or airspace flyovers could cause resolution disputes.
Movers
May 11, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 'May 15' option surged from 64c to over 98c, driven by official itinerary releases or credible reporting confirming the exact end date of Trump's visit as May 15. Concurrently, other dates such as 'May 14', 'May 16', 'May 17', and 'May 18' plummeted by over 30c, reflecting the elimination of itinerary uncertainty.
AI Analysis
Survivor 50 Winner
Culture|$1.6m Vol|
time5 days 6 hrs

Survivor 50 Winner

Top Undervalued
+2.5¢
Aubry Bracco(Yes)
+0.7¢
Jonathan Young(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a week remaining until the finale broadcast, Aubry Bracco's price remains stable arou...
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AI Analysis
Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held
Politics|$13.9k Vol|
time142 days 6 hrs

Next Brazil Senate Election: Most Seats Held

Top Undervalued
+24.6¢
PSD(Yes)
+22¢
PL(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The Liberal Party (PL) has strong right-wing momentum and remains the favorite to hold the most seat...
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Hedging
PBR
EWZ
The composition of the Brazilian Senate directly influences fiscal reforms, tax policy, and the privatization outlook for state-owned enterprises. A market-friendly Senate majority is bullish for the Brazil ETF (EWZ) and Petrobras (PBR), while a super-majority for the ruling party or legislative gridlock could trigger volatility.
Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, PSDB's Yes price surged from 2c to 15.35c due to anomalous sweeping orders or speculative buying in a low-liquidity environment. April 27, 2026 - April 28, 2026, an extreme liquidity anomaly occurred: Yes prices for almost all parties except PL (such as PSD, MDB, PT, NOVO, PP) surged simultaneously from under 12c to around 45c-50c. Meanwhile, PL's price crashed from 74c to 53.5c. This was caused by capital manipulation or indiscriminate market orders across all options, causing the total implied probability to deviate wildly from 100%. March 12, 2026 - March 13, 2026, MDB price surged from 4.35c to 22.85c, as capital rotated out of the overbought PL positions into traditional establishment parties, correcting MDB's previous undervaluation. March 10, 2026 - March 13, 2026, PL price crashed from 91c to 54.5c, because the previous pricing of 91c implied near-certainty which was irrational for an election 6 months away; increased liquidity forced a mean reversion to a competitive level.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
80-99
YesNo
33¢
67¢
46¢
54¢
+13¢
100-119
YesNo
24¢
76¢
13¢
87¢
+11¢

Expand to view all 9 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Rule Risk
The market relies on a specific tracker (xtracker.polymarket.com) as the primary resolution source rather than direct X data. This risks missed data (e.g., quickly deleted posts) or misclassification (counting some replies on the main feed). The fallback to X itself in case of tracker failure introduces a moderate risk of resolution disputes.
Exotics
Predicting the exact number of tweets by a national leader in a specific one-week window is a very niche and trivial topic. It is highly specific and characteristic of a novelty market created primarily for betting purposes rather than mainstream forecasting.
Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the '60-79' option plunged from 51c to 23.5c, while '80-99' climbed from 32c to 45.5c. The reason is that the actual posting pace in the first two days exceeded initial estimates, causing the market to shift its projected range up to 80-99. May 9, 2026 - May 12, 2026, multiple low-frequency and extreme high-frequency options experienced significant drops (e.g., the '<20' option plummeted from 24c to 2c, and '40-59' dropped from 27c to 6c), while the '60-79' option climbed from 38.5c to 51c, and '140-159' surged from 2c to 18c. The reason is that as the market period approached, predictions converged on the mainstream expectation of 8-10 posts per day, along with hedging for potential high-frequency event outbreaks.

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