April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The price of '42-43°F' surged from 36.5c to 56c, and '40-41°F' climbed from 22.5c to 32.5c. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, updated weather models narrowed the forecasted minimum temperature to the 40-42°F range. April 24, 2026 - April 25, 2026: The price of '44-45°F' plummeted from 33.5c to 4.5c, and '38-39°F' dropped from 18c to 6.5c. As the forecast certainty improved, the market quickly priced out these upper and lower tail risks.

Predicting the specific lowest temperature at a city's weather station on a given day is a relatively niche and novel topic. Outside of meteorology enthusiasts, average people generally would not think about such granular daily weather data before seeing this market.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes price for 8°C plummeted from 30.5c to 2c, and 7°C dropped from 30.5c to 7c, because the actual temperature during the early hours of the day already fell below 7°C. April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026, the Yes price for 6°C surged from 21.5c to 43.5c, as the dropping temperature made this bucket the most likely outcome for the daily low.

Predicting the lowest temperature in a specific city on a specific day is a relatively niche prediction market. While weather forecasts are common, ordinary people rarely try to predict the exact integer temperature at a specific weather station.

April 25, 2026 - April 26, 2026: The price of 8°C surged from 28c to 49c, while 6°C plummeted from 26.5c to 7.5c. This occurred because as the early hours of the 26th approached, real-time meteorological data eliminated the likelihood of lower temperatures, solidifying the 7-8°C consensus. April 25, 2026: The price of 5°C briefly spiked from 3.95c to 28.75c before crashing back below 1.5c, likely due to short-term speculative trading or a temporary anomaly in weather forecast models.