Market prices are heavily concentrated between 29°C and 31°C, whereas the latest mainstream weather forecasts and news reports predict a high of only 27°C or 28°C in Sao Paulo on April 25 due to an approaching cold front. The market has likely not fully priced in this upcoming cooling effect.

Between April 23 and April 24, 2026, the price of 21°C surged from 21.5c to 42.5c, 22°C surged from 3.75c to 14.95c, and 19°C plummeted from 25c to 8.5c. This is due to updated weather forecasts closer to the resolution date indicating a warmer expected high, shifting market funds from the 18-19°C range to the 20-22°C range. Previous analysis: No options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents in the past 3 days. The market remained relatively stable.

This is a market predicting the daily high temperature of a specific city. While weather derivatives exist in professional finance, betting on the exact temperature of a single day is a niche, somewhat novelty-driven topic for general public prediction markets.

The title mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution strictly uses data from 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Because of the geographical distance between the airport and downtown Seoul, temperatures can differ, which may mislead traders relying on city-center forecasts.

From April 23, 2026 to April 24, 2026, the Yes price for '21°C or higher' surged from 60.5c to 87c, driven by finalized nearer-term weather models confirming a significant warming trend and locking in a high probability for this bracket. In the past 3 days, there had been no extreme price movements exceeding 10c for any single option, as the weather forecasts for this date gradually converged. Trading mostly consisted of micro-adjustments in probability distributions among the adjacent higher temperature brackets (19°C-21°C).