Highest temperature in Paris on March 26?
Weather|$11.0k Vol|
time1 days 16 hrs

Highest temperature in Paris on March 26? - AI Found +11.5¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 03.23 18:17
Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
10°C(No)
+11¢
11°C(No)
+10.5¢
9°C(Yes)

Highest temperature in Paris on March 26? AI analysis: • +11.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
As the forecast horizon shortens (T-3 days), meteorological models have converged significantly rega...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Which party will win the House in 2026?
Politics|$3.9m Vol|
time223 days 4 hrs

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Top Undervalued
+4.5¢
Democratic Party(No)
+4.5¢
Republican Party(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
While authoritative statistical models like Race to the WH project a ~69% Democratic win rate, predi...
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Hedging
US 10Y Yield
S&P 500
Congressional control directly dictates future fiscal spending, tax policy, and the regulatory environment. A change in control (leading to a divided government) often implies legislative gridlock for major bills (like spending packages or tax hikes), which can be both bullish (less uncertainty) and bearish (less stimulus). As a key midterm election, the result will have a medium-strength direct impact on US Treasury yields and equity sector rotation.
Divergence
Significant divergence exists. There is a gap of approximately 15-17 percentage points between mainstream data models (e.g., Race to the WH forecasting 69% win rate) and prediction markets (Polymarket 85%, Kalshi ~86%). Market participants appear to be trading on 'sentiment' and 'negative headlines' (e.g., Iran war, inflation), ignoring the conservative estimates statistical models place on the uncertainty inherent in a 7-month horizon.
AI Analysis
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?
Crypto|$950.2k Vol|
time281 days 9 hrs

Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by...?

Top Undervalued
+8¢
December 31(No)
+4¢
June 30(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
For 'March 31', with the expiration imminent and no scheduled MSCI reviews, the risk is effectively ...
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Rule Risk
There is a format conflict between the title/options and the rules. The options list specific dates (Dec 31, Mar 31), but the rule text describes a binary 'Yes/No' resolution logic based on a specific deadline (March 31, 2026). If the market UI presents date buckets, it implies a question of 'when', but the text says 'resolves to Yes if removed... otherwise No'. This discrepancy creates confusion. Furthermore, MSCI rebalancing follows strict quarterly schedules; off-cycle removals are rare but possible, creating potential ambiguity around 'transfer' versus 'removal'.
Hedging
MSTR
This event is directly tied to MicroStrategy (MSTR). Being delisted from major MSCI indices (World/USA) would force passive index funds to liquidate their holdings, creating significant selling pressure on the stock (Score 4). Given MSTR's correlation with Bitcoin, a crash in MSTR could cause minor sentiment-based ripples in BTC prices (Score 2), but the primary tradable impact is on the stock itself.
AI Analysis
2026 NBA Champion
Sports|$257.3m Vol|
time98 days 12 hrs

2026 NBA Champion

Top Undervalued
+6.8¢
Boston Celtics(Yes)
+5.1¢
San Antonio Spurs(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
1. Celtics Undervalued (11.15c vs 18c): As defending champions, Boston's late-season coasting is bei...
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Divergence
The primary divergence lies in the ranking of the San Antonio Spurs and the Boston Celtics. Mainstream sports analytics models and expert consensus typically rank the defending champion Celtics, with their rich playoff experience, in the top two for championship probability (>15%), viewing the young Spurs as a high-potential but second-tier contender. However, the prediction market currently prices the Spurs (14.15c) significantly higher than the Celtics (11.15c), indicating that market participants are betting heavily on the 'superstar narrative' rather than the traditional 'experience reigns' logic.
AI Analysis
Trump out as President by June 30?
Trump|$1.0m Vol|
time97 days 4 hrs

Trump out as President by June 30?

Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
(No)
Arbitrage Opportunity
8¢
Arbitrage
34.9%
Annualized yield
Arbitrage|Low Risk
Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: A high-probability 'Low Risk Yield' opportunity exists. The 'No' option is priced at 91.5 cents, imp...
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Undervalued Options Insights:
Based on the simulated scenario of March 24, 2026, although Trump is nearly 80 years old, actuarial ...
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Exotics
Betting on a sitting President leaving office within a short 3-month window during the middle of a term (March 2026) is a relatively extreme political prediction. While presidential tenure is a standard topic, predicting an exit in the short term without an immediate crisis represents a low-probability political tail-risk bet.
Hedging
US 10Y Yield
DXY
DJT
Gold
S&P 500
If a sitting US President were to suddenly resign or be removed, it would be a massive political shock (black swan event), creating extreme market uncertainty. Such a constitutional crisis-level event would cause significant volatility in equities (S&P 500), a surge in safe-haven assets (Gold, US Treasuries), and likely violent swings in the Dollar Index (DXY) due to political instability. Additionally, DJT (Trump Media), being deeply tied to Trump's personal brand, would face an existential price shock.
Divergence
There is a significant divergence between market pricing (8.5% probability of departure) and mainstream reality. Typically, absent a clear health or constitutional crisis, the baseline probability of a president leaving office within a single quarter is below 2%. The market's elevated pricing likely stems from 'Catastrophe Bias' (users overestimating black swan events) or 'Wishful Betting' by political opponents, detaching prices from political reality.
AI Analysis
Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?
Politics|$1.6m Vol|
time6 days 4 hrs

Will Ilhan Omar resign by March 31?

Top Undervalued
+0.2¢
(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With only 6 days remaining until March 31, the market has entered 'garbage time'. There are no offic...
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Exotics
As a member of the 'Squad,' Ilhan Omar is frequently at the center of controversy, so speculation about her tenure isn't entirely random. However, this is not a routine cyclical event like a general election; it represents specific tail risk or political maneuvering speculation regarding an individual figure, giving it moderate novelty.
AI Analysis
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
10°C
YesNo
36.5¢
63.5¢
25¢
75¢
+11.5¢
11°C
YesNo
16¢
84¢
95¢
+11¢

Expand to view all 11 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Movers
March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the 9°C option surged from 18.5c to 35.5c, as meteorological models (like GFS and ECMWF) converged on a specific cooling magnitude around 9 degrees as the target date approached. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the '14°C or higher' option crashed from 25c to 3.7c, because updated forecasts definitively ruled out a warm front, confirming the arrival of cold air. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the 5°C option crashed from 17.5c to ~4c, as forecasts refined the temperature range, reducing the probability of extreme cold despite the confirmed temperature drop.

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