There is a significant divergence between market expectations and mainstream weather forecasts. The highest implied probabilities on Polymarket are for 20°C (32.5%) and 21°C (30%), whereas major weather outlets like The Weather Channel and AccuWeather project a high of 64°F to 67°F (17.7°C to 19.4°C) for London on April 25. This indicates that the market is severely overestimating the likelihood of the temperature reaching 20°C or above.

The title mentions 'Seoul', but the resolution strictly uses data from 'Incheon Intl Airport Station' (RKSI). Because of the geographical distance between the airport and downtown Seoul, temperatures can differ, which may mislead traders relying on city-center forecasts.

Predicting the arrest of a sitting US Representative by a specific date is a niche and novelty political speculation market. Unless a highly explosive scandal is actively unfolding, the general public rarely considers this.

The price of 'Yes' on Polymarket is 14c, implying a 14% chance of arrest. This is significantly elevated, as in the mainstream view, there are currently no active criminal arrest warrants or imminent legal actions against Eric Swalwell. This reflects over-speculation or echo-chamber effects among some participants in the prediction market.