Predicting the exact highest temperature in a specific city on a certain day is a relatively niche and random prediction market. Average people typically do not actively think about or trade on such questions, giving it a moderate level of novelty.

On May 3, 2026, the price of the 17°C option surged from 16c to 35c, while the 18°C option dropped from 48.5c to 33c, and the 19°C option also declined. This was due to updated weather data closer to the settlement date lowering the expected high temperature for Paris. No significant price movements exceeding 10 cents were observed over the previous 3 days.

While weather prediction markets and derivatives exist in professional fields, betting on the exact daily high temperature at a specific airport remains a relatively niche and novelty topic for general prediction market participants.

May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 24°C option dropped from 32.5c to 8c, as weather forecasts increasingly ruled out lower temperatures as time progressed. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the price of the 26°C option surged from 21.5c up to 46c before settling at 34c, driven by expectations of higher temperatures in updated forecasts. May 2, 2026 - May 3, 2026, the 25°C option rose steadily from around 30c to 52.5c, as it emerged as the most likely outcome nearing the expiration date.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific location is a relatively niche data prediction market. While everyone checks the weather, ordinary people rarely bet on the precise temperature range of a specific weather station on a given day.

Predicting the daily high temperature for a specific city is a relatively niche weather derivative market. While weather forecasts are common, ordinary people rarely bet on the exact integer degree Celsius of a specific day unless they are weather enthusiasts or traders.