Arbitrage Plan: Buy 'After March 31' YES heavily. Although priced high at 98.6c, given the objective reality of the Congressional recess, this outcome is nearly certain and serves as a low-risk yield opportunity (Soft Arb). Plan Description: Buying an almost completely certain event at 98.6c yields a net profit of 1.4c in about 1-2 days. Wh...

As of March 29, 2026, the Senate and House remain deadlocked over the DHS funding bill. Both chamber...

March 27, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the price of 'After March 31' surged from ~10c to over 98c, while 'March 28-31' crashed from 75c to ~1c. This was driven by House Speaker Mike Johnson rejecting the Senate-passed compromise DHS funding bill and passing a 60-day stopgap measure instead. With both chambers subsequently entering a two-week recess, hopes of resolving the shutdown by the end of March were completely dashed. March 26, 2026 - March 27 noon, 2026, the price of 'March 28-31' surged from ~20c to a peak of 75c, while 'After March 31' crashed from >70c to ~10c. This was driven by the Senate reaching an agreement and passing a funding bill in the early morning, leading to extreme market optimism that the House would swiftly follow suit. March 25, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the price of the prior window option dropped from 11c to near 0c, as the time window was closing and the partisan impasse persisted.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for Option_'No' is 94.2 cents. Since the probability of a full-scale ground invasi...

With less than 2 days until settlement, the contract strictly requires a military offensive intended...

The definition of 'invade' is strictly tied to a 'military offensive intended to establish control' over territory. This creates a significant risk where punitive airstrikes, missile campaigns, or naval blockades—regardless of intensity—would resolve as 'No' if there is no intent to hold ground. This differs from the colloquial understanding of 'war' or 'attack'.

This event would be an extreme 'Black Swan'. An invasion of Iran would threaten global energy choke points (Strait of Hormuz), causing Crude Oil prices to skyrocket. It would trigger massive risk-off sentiment, crashing global equities (S&P 500) while driving capital into safe havens like Gold and benefiting defense contractors (e.g., LMT).

March 26, 2026 - March 29, 2026, the 'Yes' price plunged from 21.3c to 4.0c. As the expiration date rapidly approaches, the market is realizing that the logistical preparation required for a ground invasion is physically impossible within a few days, causing the speculative premium to collapse under Theta decay. March 24, 2026 - March 26, 2026, the 'Yes' price rebounded from 10.6c and trended upward to 21.3c (recent high). The market sustained and pushed up a high geopolitical premium near expiry, with retail capital still hedging the minute tail risk that weekend airstrikes might be misjudged as an 'invasion'. March 24, 2026, the 'Yes' price experienced significant volatility, plunging from an intraday high of 18.9c to a low of 10.6c, before slightly rebounding. This rollercoaster was driven by shifting narratives: early speculation of an imminent raid on Kharg Island drove the price up, but President Trump's subsequent statement regarding 'productive peace talks' effectively cooled war expectations, causing a rapid exodus of speculative capital. March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the 'Yes' price corrected from 17.65c, reflecting market disappointment over the lack of concrete evidence of ground operations, compounded by accelerating Theta decay as the month-end approaches. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the 'Yes' price rose from 15.35c to 17.65c. Investors bid up the price fearing that the arrival of the USS Boxer amphibious group over the weekend signaled a prelude to ground operations, prompting defensive hedging.

With less than 2 days remaining until the March 31 settlement, there are no official announcements o...

With less than 2 days left until the March 31 resolution, the time window for a 'Yes' event is almos...

Rule clarity is moderate. While 'downs or disables' is relatively clear, the condition 'broadly attributed to a Mexican cartel' could be contentious in practice. If a small drone is downed, officials might not issue a specific attribution statement, or media reports might be vague, leading to resolution difficulties. Furthermore, ensuring the definition of 'federal government' covers routine operations by agencies like CBP is crucial, though they are federal.

This is a relatively niche and specific event prediction. While drone issues at the US-Mexico border are growing, betting specifically on 'whether the US government will use kinetic or electronic warfare to down a drone within a specific short timeframe' falls into an unconventional political/military sub-category, not a mainstream topic.

Arbitrage Plan: Buy Option_'No' Plan Description: The current price for 'No' is 98.85c. Since the probability of a FR/UK/DE strike on Iran in less tha...

With less than 2 days remaining until the March 31 deadline, the likelihood of France, the UK, or Ge...

The definition of 'strike' is specific (aerial bombs, drones, or missiles) and explicitly excludes interceptions, SAMs, ground incursions, and FPV strikes. The target must be Iranian soil or embassies. The main risk lies in distinguishing proxy warfare (e.g., Houthis) from state military action, and attribution challenges in joint coalition operations (e.g., NATO). While the rules are detailed, the 'fog of war' could make verifying 'who launched it' and 'did it hit soil' contentious.

While tensions in the Middle East are high and Iran's relations with the West are poor, a direct strike on Iranian soil by the UK, France, or Germany (as opposed to striking proxies or targets in Syria/Iraq) would be a massive geopolitical escalation. This is not a routine topic of discussion and holds 'black swan' characteristics, making it moderately exotic.

A direct strike on Iranian soil by the UK, France, or Germany would mark a severe escalation of the Middle East conflict, significantly raising the risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade. This would cause Crude Oil prices to spike violently (Extreme impact). Safe-haven assets like Gold and the Dollar (DXY) would rally, while the S&P 500 would face panic selling. This is a classic geopolitical tail-risk event.