There is a notable divergence. Polymarket traders appear to be relying heavily on global commercial weather models (e.g., Google/Weather Channel), which forecast highs of 31-32°C for May 14. In contrast, the local authority, Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS), explicitly forecasts daily maximum temperatures ranging between 33°C and 35°C for most days during the first fortnight of May. The market consensus is clearly under-incorporating the local official high-temperature outlook.