AI Signal Dashboard
Last updated: 04.06 18:34
Top Undervalued
+5.5¢
22°C(No)
+3¢
23°C(No)
+3¢
20°C(Yes)
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 9? AI analysis: • +5.5¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.
Undervalued Options Insights:
Recent meteorological models and long-range forecasts indicate a warming trend in Israel after Passo...
🔓 Unlock Mispricing Insights (Pro)
Real-time High Yield Opportunities
View MoreAll
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
22°C
YesNo
37.5¢
62.5¢
32¢
68¢
0¢
+5.5¢
23°C
YesNo
11¢
89¢
8¢
92¢
0¢
+3¢
Expand to view all 11 options
⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Predicting the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche, everyday event prediction. While not as mainstream as macro political or financial events, weather betting has a dedicated audience in prediction markets and is not wildly bizarre.
Movers
April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, the price of the 21°C option surged from 15.5c to 32.5c, and the 22°C option surged from 15c to 31.5c, while the 18°C and 19°C options plummeted from 21c and 23c down to 4.5c and 6.0c, respectively. This was due to updated meteorological models and long-range forecasts showing a significant warming trend, pushing the expected high temperature up to 21-22°C.
April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026 (Historical), no single option experienced a price movement of more than 10c. Pricing was spread relatively evenly across multiple options, indicating dispersed market expectations at the time.
Divergence
There is a moderate divergence. Some basic automated weather forecasts (like the default Google weather widget) still predict the high on April 9 to be between 18°C and 19°C. However, Polymarket traders and updated meteorological ensemble models (such as AccuWeather and the latest guidance from the Israel Meteorological Service) have already priced in a post-Passover warming trend, pushing the most likely outcome to 21°C and 22°C. Market participants are favoring the more responsive and detailed professional models over lagging basic forecast interfaces.