The resolution source, Wunderground, currently forecasts a high of 73°F for KSFO on Tuesday, providi...

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of '74°F or higher' retreated to 32.5c after hitting a high of 47.5c, as approaching resolution led more models (Google/NWS) to confirm the cooling trend, shaking confidence in extreme heat bets. Meanwhile, '72-73°F' rebounded from lows to 31.5c, indicating capital consolidating around the specific Wunderground forecast value (73°F).

Significant divergence exists. Google/Weather.com predicts 66°F, far below the market's primary pricing range (72-74°F). This stems from the market tracking the resolution source Wunderground's specific forecast (73°F) while ignoring stronger cooling signals from other mainstream models (GFS/ECMWF). If Wunderground revises its forecast at the last minute, the market faces severe repricing risk.

With the target date (March 24) less than 24 hours away, weather models have significantly corrected...

March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the price of the 17°C option collapsed from 30.5c to 6c, as the latest high-resolution weather models close to the event date confirmed a faster warming trend, causing a mass exodus of capital betting on cooler temperatures. March 21, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the 18°C option experienced a massive rollercoaster, dropping from 40c to 12.5c (evening of March 21) before rebounding strongly to 29.5c on March 23. This reflects the market's extreme vacillation between 'lingering cold front' and 'rapid recovery' scenarios, eventually correcting towards the warmer side. March 22, 2026 - March 23, 2026, the 21°C option fell from 19.5c to 7c, indicating that while the market sees warming, it does not believe the recovery will be strong enough to breach 21°C.

Consolidating mainstream weather sources (The Weather Channel/Google, AccuWeather, Weather Undergrou...

This is a typical weather prediction market. While weather is a common topic, betting on the specific maximum temperature of a specific city on a specific date is a niche market, less mainstream than sports or elections.

March 21, 2026 - March 22, 2026, the price of 30°C dropped from 37c to 24c, as approaching dates confirmed milder weather models, eroding the probability of higher heat. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 19c to 39.5c, while 32°C crashed from 25c to 3c, because forecasts ruled out extreme heat above 32°C, causing capital to flee towards the more realistic 29°C, though not yet fully correcting the undervaluation of 28°C.

Significant divergence exists. The market currently assigns a combined probability of ~42% to outcomes of 30°C and above (30°C @ 27%, 31°C @ 15.5%), which is disconnected from mainstream weather forecasts (Google/TWC forecast 28°C, AccuWeather forecast 29°C). The market appears to be over-hedging against heat risk or has not updated for the latest cooling trend, resulting in a severe undervaluation of 28°C.

While general forecasts for Ankara city center suggest highs of 11°C or even 12°C, this market resol...

There is a distinct contradiction in the rules. The resolution source link points to the Wunderground 'History' page, which displays actual observations. However, the rule text states 'recorded... by the Forecast', which is terminologically conflicting (History/Actuals vs Forecast). This is likely a copy-paste error intending to mean 'recorded by the Station', but a literal interpretation could cause disputes. Additionally, reliance on a single specific station (LTAC) carries risks of data gaps or temporary outages on the specific platform.

March 23, 2026 - March 24, 2026, the price of 12°C crashed from 41c to 20c, as the market realized the specific forecast for Esenboğa Airport (10°C) is significantly lower than the city forecast, coupled with increased rain probability. March 23, 2026, the price of 10°C rallied from 9.5c to 18c, as 10°C was re-evaluated as the most accurate forecast for the airport location approaching resolution. March 23, 2026, the price of 11°C saw high volatility, surging to 45.5c before settling back to 38c, reflecting the market's tug-of-war between the 10°C (airport) and 11°C (city) outcomes.

Significant divergence exists. The market pricing implies a 20% chance for 12°C and 38% for 11°C. However, authoritative weather forecasts specifically for the resolution location, Çubuk (LTAC), explicitly predict a high of 10°C (50°F). The market prices are likely misled by the warmer Ankara city forecast (11-12°C), ignoring the airport's typically cooler microclimate and rainy conditions. 10°C is currently trading at only 18c, making it severely undervalued.

MN-05 (Minneapolis) is one of the safest Democratic strongholds in the nation, with a Cook PVI of D+...