Between 04:13 and 12:48 on April 13, 2026, the price of 29°C surged from 39c to 50c before settling at 44.5c, as weather forecasts increasingly confirmed the high probability of 29°C being the maximum temperature. Between 21:43 on April 12 and 07:28 on April 13, 2026, the price of 27°C plummeted from 14c to 4c, due to an upward shift in the forecasted temperature range, significantly reducing the likelihood of 27°C being the high. Between 05:28 and 06:33 on April 12, 2026, the price of 29°C dropped from 27.5c to 17c. This is likely due to market position adjustments influenced by non-official short-term weather forecasts predicting highs around 28-29°C. Between 05:28 and 06:33 on April 12, 2026, the price of 28°C fell from 41c to 36c, reflecting similar short-term trading volatility as bettors hedged across different temperature ranges.

Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the Yes prices for 28°C, 29°C, and 30°C plummeted from 44.5c to anywhere between near 0c and 11c. This was caused by updated weather forecasts ruling out the likelihood of cooler temperatures as the resolution date approaches. Between April 12 and April 13, 2026, the price for 33°C dropped from 45c to 8c before surging back to 30.8c due to new high-temperature warnings; 32°C experienced a similar reversal, dropping from 45c to 10c before climbing steadily back to 29.5c. This volatility was driven by short-term adjustments in meteorological models that ultimately confirmed a hotter weather trend (32-33°C).

This is a prediction market regarding the future token performance of a specific crypto project (Surf AI). While not absurd like 'Jesus resurrection,' it targets a very specific, currently tokenless niche project. It is relatively obscure to those outside the crypto or AI app circles, making it a moderately specific prediction.

The prediction market currently prices the base probability of a successful token launch (via the $50M option) at only around 67%, with significant discounts across valuation tiers. However, crypto VC circles and mainstream industry consensus generally hold that a top-tier AI agent network like Surf AI, backed by a massive $57M lead investment from Accel, would face extreme capital efficiency pressure if it doesn't exit via token generation by late 2027. Furthermore, if it does launch, the chances of an FDV below $200M are negligible (yet the market leaves a nearly 27% probability gap between $50M and $200M). The market's conservative pricing is disconnected from primary market valuation logic.

April 1, 2026 - April 3, 2026, Karmine Corp's price surged from 46c to 68c, driven by a crucial victory in the LEC playoffs that significantly boosted their MSI qualification odds. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, Weibo Gaming's price spiked from 27c to 49.5c, indicating an upset or critical comeback in the LPL playoffs, reviving their hopes. April 1, 2026 - April 2, 2026, T1's price crashed from 64c to 47c before rebounding to 60c the next day, reflecting a turbulent LCK playoff run (e.g., dropping to the loser's bracket but surviving an elimination match). March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, GenG's price surged from 75.5c to 94.3c due to a rapid market correction after a brief panic, confirming their near-certain qualification. March 20, 2026 - March 21, 2026, Lyon's price plummeted from 71.5c to 57.5c due to a critical loss in the Americas North region. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, JD Gaming's price crashed from 57.5c to 39c, reflecting underperformance in the intense LPL playoffs. March 18, 2026 - March 19, 2026, T1's price dropped from 72.5c to 61c due to shaky performance in the LCK playoffs, shaking market confidence.