Politics|$903 Vol|
165 days 4 hrsHow many Democratic House members not running in 2026? - AI Odds Analysis
All
Outcomes
Market
Price
AI Fair
Value
Value
Edge
24–27
YesNo
40+
YesNo
36–39
YesNo
20–23
YesNo
28–31
YesNo
32–35
YesNo
<20
YesNo
AI Insights:
03.03 23:27 UpdatedFair Value Reasoning:
As key state candidate filing deadlines pass in early March, the uncertainty regarding the number of retirements is rapidly converging. The price crash in the '32-35' bracket (dropping from 18c to 7c) indicates the market is ruling out a mass wave of late retirements. The known count of Democratic representatives retiring or seeking other office is likely already locked in the low 20s, making '24–27' the dominant outcome (normalized to ~60%). Given the limited time remaining and that most decisions are now public, the probability of long-tail options (40+ or <20) should be further downgraded.
Sign up to view more information
Movers
March 1, 2026 - March 2, 2026: The price of the '32–35' option crashed from 18.5c to 7.1c (a drop of 11.4c), while the '24–27' option rose from 54.5c to 63c. Reason: This likely signals the passing of filing deadlines in several key states without expected additional retirement announcements, causing the market to rapidly reprice and shift probability density from the higher 30+ range down to the 20+ range.
