[Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($10) in this market, analyze the current Bid-Ask Spread for significant slippage risk. Also, considering IA-01's history as a tight swing district, does the current price deviate significantly from a 50/50 'toss-up' fair value?

AI-powered analysis for: [Mandatory Task] Order Book & Fundamentals Comprehensive Assessment: Given the extremely low volume ($10) in this market, analyze the current Bid-Ask Spread for significant slippage risk. Also, considering IA-01's history as a tight swing district, does the current price deviate significantly from a 50/50 'toss-up' fair value?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 1: Key Players Mining] Candidate Status Confirmation: Search to confirm if the incumbent IA-01 Representative (e.g., Mariannette Miller-Meeks) has announced a reelection bid for the 2026 midterms. Also, are there indications of strong Democratic challengers (like Christina Bohannan) planning to run again? How do candidate recognition and rematch history impact early odds?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 1: Key Players Mining] Candidate Status Confirmation: Search to confirm if the incumbent IA-01 Representative (e.g., Mariannette Miller-Meeks) has announced a reelection bid for the 2026 midterms. Also, are there indications of strong Democratic challengers (like Christina Bohannan) planning to run again? How do candidate recognition and rematch history impact early odds?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

[Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-term Lock-up Assessment: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026, calculate if the annualized ROI of a winning bet (assuming 50% odds) justifies locking up capital for years compared to risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasuries, especially considering the extreme illiquidity?

AI-powered analysis for: [Category 3: Opportunity Cost of Capital] Long-term Lock-up Assessment: Given the resolution date of November 4, 2026, calculate if the annualized ROI of a winning bet (assuming 50% odds) justifies locking up capital for years compared to risk-free yields in DeFi or Treasuries, especially considering the extreme illiquidity?. Get detailed insights and real-time data on PolyPredict AI.

Elections|$114 Vol|

230 days 4 hrs

IA-01 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

All Outcomes

Market Price

AI Fair Value

Value Edge

Democratic Party

YesNo

79¢

21¢

65¢

35¢

0¢

+14¢

Republican Party

YesNo

34.5¢

65.5¢

35¢

65¢

+0.5¢

0¢

AI Insights:

03.16 10:07 Updated

Fair Value Reasoning:

While IA-01 is an R+3 swing district with incumbent Miller-Meeks, the 2026 midterm environment (D+14 generic ballot polls, low Trump approval) heavily favors Democrats. However, with 8 months to go, the market's 79% Dem implied probability overreacts to early polls, discounting incumbency advantage and mean regression. Fair value reflects a 'Lean Dem' status rather than the market's 'Safe Dem' pricing.

Sign up to view more information

Movers

2026-03-09 to 2026-03-13, Republican Party price surged from 19c to 34.5c, likely a correction of previously distressed pricing (implied 19% win prob) to better align with incumbent fundamentals in a swing district, despite the bearish macro environment.

Divergence

Market pricing implies a near 80% certainty for Democrats, treating it as a safe seat. This significantly diverges from mainstream ratings (e.g., Cook Political Report) which categorize it as a 'Toss-up' or only slightly tilting Democrat, a discrepancy driven largely by market illiquidity.

IA-01 House Election Winner - AI Odds Analysis

AI Insights:

Support

Frequently Asked Questions

The All-in-One AI Copilot for Prediction Markets

Markets

AI Insights

Tools & subscriptions

Community

Policies & security

Partner