Arbitrage Plan: Buy Yes on All Options Plan Description: The sum of 'Yes' prices for all options is approximately 96.95 cents (0.76 + 0.168 + 0.025 + 0.0075 ...

With only 100 days remaining until June 30 and no public S-1 filing from Discord, 'No IPO' remains t...

Reddit (RDDT) is the most direct public peer for Discord, and their valuation multiples are highly correlated. If RDDT shares drop significantly before Discord's debut, it will directly depress Discord's pricing expectations. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) represents broader tech sentiment, which dictates whether the IPO window is open and the level of premium investors are willing to pay.

Based on the current time (early March 21), the market has been running for about 16 hours. Although...

This is a classic 'Novelty' market focusing on the social media metrics of a specific celebrity. While such bets are common in prediction market communities, for the general public, forecasting the exact tweet count of an individual is a niche, entertainment-oriented topic, distinct from traditional political or economic forecasting.

There is a significant divergence between the market's most heavily priced range (300-339, implying 43-48 tweets/day) and Elon Musk's recent actual behavior (65+ tweets/day). The market appears to be betting on mean reversion, assuming a sharp decrease in activity, which contradicts his recent high-activity mode.

With less than 24 hours until the runoff (March 22) and the vote-splitting from the Far-Left (LFI) f...

There is a significant definition risk: 1. The Paris mayoral election is indirect (via arrondissement councils), creating a potential 'Electoral College' scenario where a candidate could win the Mayoralty but lose the popular vote. This market resolves strictly on 'citywide list votes' (popular vote). Thus, the option 'Rachida Dati Win' implies winning the popular vote, not necessarily the office, which is a trap for bettors focusing on the political outcome. 2. The rule mentioning a specific 'two-ballot system' could cause resolution ambiguity if the actual election proceeds under the traditional single-ballot aggregation method.

From March 20, 2026, to March 21, 2026, the price of 'Emmanuel Grégoire <5%' surged from 57.5c to 66c, reflecting an accelerating market consensus toward the sole 'narrow victory' scenario as election day looms. From March 19, 2026, to March 20, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 5–10%' dropped from 21.5c to 14.5c, indicating that some holders are realizing the impossibility of a comfortable margin and are liquidating positions. From March 17, 2026, to March 19, 2026, 'Emmanuel Grégoire 10–15%' crashed from 21c to 3.5c, marking the definitive end of any 'landslide' expectations for Grégoire and confirming that the left-wing vote split is fully priced in.

There is a significant internal logical divergence within the market. While the overall win probability (Grégoire total ~80% vs. Dati ~21%) aligns with mainstream expectations of a 'Socialist advantage,' the distribution of margins is misaligned. Mainstream political analysis suggests that with LFI splitting the vote, any Grégoire victory must be razor-thin. However, the prediction market still has ~16% of capital stuck in the '5-10%' and higher margin options, which contradicts the political reality of an 'extremely tight race' and suggests some participants do not fully understand the compression effect of the electoral system on vote margins.

Although the previous week (March 13-20) settled in the '100-119' bucket, creating a strong anchor (...

The rules are relatively clear but present two potential risks: 1. The definition of 'Replies'. While replies generally don't count, those appearing on the 'main feed' are counted. This depends on user action (checking 'Also share to followers') and is hard to distinguish visually via UI, relying heavily on the specific tracker data. 2. The resolution source (xtracker.polymarket.com) might experience outages or data lag, which is common in social media scraping.

This is a specific quantitative prediction about a public figure's social media behavior. While Trump's posting frequency is a common topic, predicting the precise number of posts (including reposts) in a specific week remains a niche and specific novelty market rather than a mainstream macro event.

March 19, 2026 - March 20, 2026, the price of '80-99' dropped from 34.5c to 23.5c, as the market re-evaluated the upside risk of activity driven by the 'Iran War' news cycle at the start of the new weekly period (Mar 20), causing capital to rotate out of lower-frequency buckets. March 17, 2026 - March 18, 2026, prices for multiple outlier options (e.g., '20-39', '40-59') crashed from an anomalous ~40c to single digits, likely due to the correction of initial illiquidity or data calibration errors as the market matured.

Significant divergence detected. Mainstream media (Axios, Independent, NDTV) are currently (Mar 19-20) reporting on a 'frenzy' or 'barrage' of Trump posts regarding the Iran situation, describing the frequency as 'blast after blast'. However, Polymarket pricing favors a conservative '100-119' (~14-17 posts/day) or even lower '80-99', contradicting the high-frequency 'crisis mode' activity described in the news.

Although the market strongly favors the '20-39' range (current price 74c), the pricing is too extrem...

While the rules define the source (xtracker) and post types (main, quote, reposts), the definition of 'Replies' has ambiguity. The rule states replies don't count unless they appear on the 'main feed,' a technical distinction that can cause discrepancies between manual user counts and the tracker. Additionally, the capture mechanism for deleted posts within a 5-minute window introduces potential dispute risks.

This is a typical novelty market. Betting on the specific number of tweets a public figure posts in a week is not a mainstream topic in traditional finance or politics. It relies entirely on individual social media behavioral habits, categorizing it as a niche and entertainment-focused prediction.

From March 18 to March 20, 2026, the price of the '20-39' option surged from 32.5c to 74c, while the '<20' option plummeted from 25.5c to 4c. The reason is that as the tracking window (March 20) approached, the market observed an uptick in CZ's activity (likely related to the DC Blockchain Summit), causing traders to rapidly correct previous expectations of 'extremely low frequency' posting. This led to a massive concentration of capital into the medium-frequency bucket, creating the current one-sided trend.

There is a divergence in volatility pricing. The market price (74% probability locked on 20-39) implies extreme certainty, as if CZ's posting is a strictly linear process (fixed 3-5 posts/day). However, the consensus view is that social media activity is highly bursty and uncertain. The market is overly compressing the probabilities of a 'quiet week' (<20) and a 'busy week' (>40), diverging from standard social media behavioral patterns.