There are moderate potential risks primarily regarding the accuracy of the xtracker tool. Deleted posts only count if captured within a ~5-minute window, and the specific rule stating 'replies recorded on the main feed will be counted' could lead to disputes over how specific edge-case posts are categorized.

Predicting the exact number of tweets a specific country's leader (especially Iran's Supreme Leader) posts in a specific week is a highly niche and novel angle. Unless there is a major geopolitical crisis, the general public does not monitor this precise social media metric.

April 8, 2026 - April 9, 2026, the price of the '5-9' option surged from 51.5c to 89c, as less than a day remains until expiration and the total post count is essentially locked into this bracket. April 5, 2026 - April 8, 2026, YES prices for multiple brackets (e.g., 45-49, 30-34, 40-44) experienced violent rollercoaster fluctuations; for instance, 45-49 surged from 7c to 55c, crashed to 0.5c, spiked again to 41c, and fell back to 2c. Concurrently, lower brackets like <5 and 5-9 climbed from around 27c to 50c-65c. This is due to extremely poor market depth, where sporadic trading orders and irrational speculation repeatedly and drastically distorted prices. April 5, 2026 - April 6, 2026, prices for several high-posting brackets such as 30-34, 45-49, and 50-54 surged from under 1c to over 35c-38c, while some lower brackets like 10-14 dropped from 49c to 19c. This is due to a severely illiquid market being swept by a few large orders, causing massive pricing distortions and arbitrage opportunities. April 3, 2026 - April 5, 2026, prices for lower brackets (<5, 5-9, 10-14) increased by 11 to 18 cents, while higher brackets (35-39, 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59) surged from 2c to 20-23c. This is due to extremely poor market liquidity and severe mispricing, causing the sum of Yes prices across all options to vastly exceed 100%. April 2, 2026 - April 3, 2026: Prices for higher posting brackets (e.g., 30-34, 35-39, 40-44, 45-49) surged by 12 to 17 cents, while lower-mid brackets (15-19, 20-24) plunged by 13 to 20 cents. This is due to market anticipation of increased posting frequency from Khamenei surrounding specific geopolitical events in April, combined with large buy orders sweeping an illiquid market.