While winning the SpaceX IPO mandate is a huge prestige and fee earner, it is unlikely to move the stock price of major banks like Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs by more than 1-2% (hence score 1). However, confirmation of a lead underwriter implies the IPO is imminent, which would have a significant impact (Score 3) on funds holding SpaceX equity (like Destiny Tech100, DXYZ) due to the liquidity event. This market acts more as a signal for the listing process than a direct hedge for bank stocks.

Apr 29, 2026 - May 2, 2026, Morgan Stanley's price surged from 40c to 53c before falling to 46.5c, while Goldman Sachs plummeted from 22.5c to 10.5c before rebounding to 21.5c. The reason is intense capital rotation in a short period, likely driven by unverified industry rumors, causing investors to rapidly reprice the two top-tier investment banks. Apr 28, 2026 - May 1, 2026, Morgan Stanley's price climbed steadily from 40.5c to 51.5c, while Goldman Sachs's price plummeted from 26c to 10.5c. This indicates that market funds further consolidated following recent volatility, decisively reaffirming Morgan Stanley's leading position while heavily downgrading expectations for Goldman Sachs. Bank of America also experienced a swing, spiking to 23.35c before settling back to 16.55c. Apr 23, 2026 - Apr 24, 2026, Morgan Stanley's price significantly rebounded from 23.5c to 48.5c, as the market quickly corrected the previous day's plunge likely caused by a lack of liquidity or mispricing, with funds reaffirming its leading position. Apr 22, 2026 - Apr 23, 2026, Morgan Stanley's price plummeted from 46c to 23.5c. This suggests sudden adverse rumors regarding its lead underwriter status, or a severe loss of investor confidence in SpaceX completing an IPO within the timeframe, causing capital to exit. Apr 20, 2026 - Apr 21, 2026, all major candidates experienced a pullback, with Morgan Stanley dropping from 52c to 46c and Goldman Sachs falling from 29c to 21.5c. This was caused by growing market doubts over whether SpaceX will actually complete an IPO before the end of 2027, significantly increasing the implied probability of 'Other/No IPO'. Apr 17, 2026 - Apr 20, 2026, Morgan Stanley's price climbed steadily from 43c to 52c, while Bank of America fell back from 19.1c to 15.25c. This occurred as market funds further concentrated on MS due to its higher historical certainty, partially digesting previous hype surrounding BofA. Apr 15, 2026 - Apr 17, 2026, Bank of America's price surged from 8.5c to 19.1c, likely due to new positive rumors regarding its potential role in a SpaceX IPO, prompting renewed market betting. Apr 12, 2026 - Apr 16, 2026, Bank of America's price surged from 5.4c to 17.45c, likely due to new positive rumors regarding its potential role in a SpaceX IPO, prompting renewed market betting.