Predicting the daily low temperature of a specific city belongs to standard weather derivative or prediction markets. While not a mainstream public topic like political elections, it is quite common in prediction markets and is not considered a highly bizarre novelty question.

May 14, 2026 02:08 - May 14, 2026 07:33, the price of the 25°C option surged from 28.5c to 38c, while the 26°C option dropped from 27.5c to 15c. The reason is likely an updated short-term, high-frequency meteorological forecast confirming a slightly higher minimum temperature expectation, converging around 25°C. May 13, 2026 01:13 - May 13, 2026 03:23, the price of the 22°C option surged from 5c to 18.5c. The reason was an updated meteorological model at the time indicating potential cold air replenishment or rainfall that could drive nighttime temperatures lower (an expectation that was later revised, causing the price to drop again).