The prediction market currently shows Ken Sim's 'Yes' price at only around 0.30, while Kareem Allam is even at 0.315. This heavily diverges from mainstream political expectations, which assign a dominant re-election advantage to the incumbent mayor. The market is likely skewed by low liquidity or specific insider rumors.

April 14-15, 2026, Victor Marx's price surged from 42.5c to 62.5c, likely because the market absorbed a strong new endorsement or breakthrough polling data, establishing his absolute lead. In the same period, Barbara Kirkmeyer's price fell from 28c to 22.5c, squeezed by the capital shift. April 5-11, 2026, Prices of all candidates fluctuated slightly with no significant moves over 10c, indicating the market has entered a relatively stable wait-and-see period. April 3-4, 2026, Victor Marx's price plummeted from 63.5c to 47.5c, likely due to a shift in the race or sudden negative news shaking market confidence. April 3-4, 2026, Scott Bottoms's price surged from 1.3c to 11.2c, likely due to new endorsements or polling support, absorbing some of the share flowing out from Marx. March 21-28, 2026, Daniel Thomas's price declined steadily from 14.75c to 5.9c, as the market corrected the previously inflated price caused by low liquidity, with capital flowing away from fringe candidates lacking fundamental support. March 16-18, 2026, The market experienced extreme volatility and correction. Victor Marx spiked to 77c before crashing back to 57.5c, while Barbara Kirkmeyer rebounded strongly from a low of 13.5c to 35c. This suggests an initial overreaction/pump on Marx followed by a correction as liquidity returned to Kirkmeyer, repricing the head-to-head race. Simultaneously, Scott Bottoms collapsed from ~12.5c to the 2c range, signaling the final consolidation of the MAGA vote to Marx. February 27-28, 2026, Daniel Thomas saw an abnormal spike from 6c to 24c, likely due to low liquidity/fat-finger trading. January 6-7, 2026, Prices for Greg Lopez and Mark Baisley collapsed as they exited the governor's primary for an Independent run and a Senate bid, respectively.