Between April 26 and April 27, 2026, the price for '42°C or below' surged from 23c to 91.5c, while '43°C' plummeted from 67c to 6c. This massive shift is driven by real-time weather observations on the target date, which showed lower peak temperatures than previously forecast.

This is a niche prediction market. While weather forecasting is a normal part of daily life, betting on the exact high temperature of a specific city on a specific date is not a mainstream topic of general interest, giving it a novelty and entertainment appeal.

April 25, 2026 - April 27, 2026: As short-term forecasts adjusted and real-time temperatures trended higher, the Yes price for 20°C surged from 16c to 51.5c. The 19°C option saw volatility, rising from 21c to 49c before dropping back to 32.5c. Meanwhile, 18°C and lower options plummeted as actual temperatures exceeded earlier expectations.

April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of '86-87°F' rose from 32c to 48.5c, and '88-89°F' climbed from 5.5c to 21.5c. This was driven by weather forecast models revising the expected high temperatures upward as the day approached. April 26, 2026 - April 27, 2026, the price of '84-85°F' dropped from 44.5c to 20c, and '82-83°F' plummeted from 16.5c to 3.4c, reflecting the same upward revision in temperature forecasts, sharply reducing the probabilities of lower temperature ranges.

Between April 26 and April 27, 2026, the price of the 78-79°F option climbed steadily from 38c to 54c, while the 76-77°F option dropped from 34c to 19c. This occurred because, as the day approached, weather forecast models converged, making it increasingly clear that the high temperature would hit the 78-79°F range, causing market funds to consolidate into this bracket. Between April 25 and April 26, 2026, the 80-81°F option fluctuated between 28c and 12c, reflecting early uncertainty in forecast models regarding the intensity of a potential warm front.

2026-04-25 to 2026-04-27, the price of [88°F or higher] dipped briefly from 96.5c to 84.9c before recovering to 98.3c. This was likely due to short-term trading noise or minor variances in intermediate weather models, but the market quickly corrected itself as forecasts solidified for a 90°F+ hot day.