Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Weather|$15.0k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15? - AI Found +70.4¢ Mispricing

AI Signal Dashboard

Last updated: 9 hours ago
Top Undervalued
+70.4¢
14°C(No)
+23.5¢
13°C(Yes)
+0.6¢
12°C or below(No)

Lowest temperature in Tokyo on May 15? AI analysis: • +70.4¢ undervalued • Live Prediction Market fair value & mispricing alerts.

Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the lowest temperature at Tokyo Haneda Airport on May 15,...
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Real-time High Yield Opportunities

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Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?
Weather|$24.9k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on May 15?

Top Undervalued
+10.5¢
23°C(No)
+3.9¢
24°C(No)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts, the high temperature at Guarulhos International Airport o...
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Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of '20°C or below' surged from 13c to 45c due to updated weather models adjusting the expected high temperatures downward to cooler ranges (around 19°C-20°C) as the date approached. May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of '22°C' dropped from 33.5c to 15c and then rebounded to 26.5c, reflecting market fluctuations as traders reacted to conflicting short-term meteorological updates.
AI Analysis
Explain in the simplest terms how the winning temperature is determined for Sao Paulo on May 15 using Wunderground data?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?
Weather|$32.5k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Highest temperature in Madrid on May 15?

Top Undervalued
+11.5¢
17°C(No)
+9.5¢
16°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts (including Weather Underground), the high temperature in M...
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Exotics
Betting on the exact highest temperature of a specific city on a given day is a niche prediction market activity. While weather forecasts are part of daily life, the general public rarely predicts and trades on the exact daily high down to a single degree.
Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 18°C option dropped sharply from 27c to 13.5c (before bouncing back to 20c), while the 15°C option fell from 16c to 5c. This is because as the resolution date approaches, weather models have converged on a high of 16°C-17°C, significantly reducing the probability of cooler (15°C) or warmer (18°C) tail events. May 10, 2026 - May 13, 2026, no options experienced a price movement of more than 10 cents over the past 3 days.
AI Analysis
How exactly is the highest temperature at Madrid-Barajas Airport verified on Wunderground, and how does the whole-degree Celsius precision affect the final resolution for May 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on May 15?
Weather|$31.5k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Highest temperature in Milan on May 15?

Top Undervalued
+9.5¢
16°C(No)
+5.5¢
17°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
The sum of the implied probabilities for all 'Yes' options is approximately 101.25%, indicating a re...
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Exotics
Predicting the highest temperature on a specific day in a specific city is a relatively niche but not extremely rare daily guessing market, usually attracting only weather data enthusiasts or locals.
Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 16°C option dropped from a peak of 30.5c to 15c, and the 13°C option dropped from 21c to 9.5c. The reason is that as the date approaches, meteorological forecast models have eliminated extreme high or low temperature scenarios, narrowing the expected range to predominantly 14-15°C.
AI Analysis
How exactly will the highest temperature at Milan Malpensa Airport on May 15 be resolved using Wunderground, and what happens if the temperature data is revised after being 'finalized'?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 15?
Weather|$16.9k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 15?

Top Undervalued
+7.5¢
17°C(No)
+3¢
20°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
With less than a day until expiration, the weather forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport ...
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Rule Risk
While the title generically mentions Buenos Aires, the rules strictly specify the Ezeiza International Airport (SAEZ) station in the suburbs. This location often experiences microclimate differences compared to the city center. Furthermore, strictly relying on Wunderground's recorded all-time daily high rounded to whole degrees means any website data anomalies or rounding discrepancies could cause the resolution to deviate from mainstream general weather forecasts, creating a notable trap for bettors.
Movers
May 13, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '18°C' option surged from 24c to 36.5c, and the '20°C' option plummeted from 22.5c to 10.5c, because as the settlement date approaches, weather forecast data converges, increasing the probability of slightly lower temperatures. May 10, 2026 - May 13, 2026, no options experienced a significant price movement of over 10 cents. Due to the lack of historical comparative data, the market maintained stable expectations during that period.
AI Analysis
Are there historical instances of delayed updates or subsequent revisions for the SAEZ station data on Wunderground?
Highest temperature in London on May 15?
Weather|$69.6k Vol|
time12 hrs 22 mins

Highest temperature in London on May 15?

Top Undervalued
+3.5¢
13°C(No)
+1.5¢
14°C(Yes)
Undervalued Options Insights:
According to the latest weather forecasts for London City Airport (EGLC), the high temperature for M...
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Exotics
Weather prediction markets are common on betting platforms but remain moderately unconventional to the general public. While weather derivatives exist in traditional finance, ordinary people rarely bet on the exact temperature at a specific airport on a random day.
Movers
From 06:38 to 10:58 on May 14, 2026, the price of the 14°C option surged from 25.5c to 37.5c before pulling back slightly. This occurred because, as the resolution date approaches, the latest meteorological models and forecasts briefly pinpointed the high temperature in London on May 15 at 14°C, causing market capital to rapidly concentrate on this outcome. From 01:13 to 21:18 on May 14, 2026, the price of the 13°C option steadily climbed from 29.5c to 37.5c. This shift was driven by evening weather forecast updates suggesting temperatures might be slightly cooler than previously expected, making 13°C the most likely outcome.
AI Analysis
Explain the resolution rules for this London temperature prediction market in simple terms, specifically how the Wunderground London City Airport (EGLC) station data and the whole-degree Celsius rounding work.
All Outcomes
Market Price
AI Fair Value
Value Edge
14°C
YesNo
98.4¢
1.6¢
28¢
72¢
0¢
+70.4¢
13°C
YesNo
0.5¢
99.5¢
24¢
76¢
+23.5¢
0¢

Expand to view all 3 options

⚠️ Risk Warning: Live data may lag! Prices can shift instantly due to news or low liquidity. Before trading, use AI Chat for [Live Recalculate], [Check Liquidity], [Trollbox Radar], or review [Fair Value Logic] to verify.
Exotics
Betting on the exact lowest temperature degree at a specific airport is quite niche for the general public, as people rarely ponder this exact number. However, weather prediction markets are a standard, albeit specialized, category within prediction platforms.
Movers
May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the '12°C or below' option plummeted from 25.5c to 0.35c, as the likelihood of extreme low temperatures was completely ruled out approaching the settlement date. May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 13°C option surged from 5.5c to 24.35c due to updated forecasts indicating a possibility of lower nocturnal temperatures. May 12, 2026 - May 14, 2026, the price of the 16°C option dropped from 30c to 13.5c, as the forecasted low was revised downwards. May 12, 2026 - May 13, 2026, the price of the 16°C option dropped from 27c to 13.5c before rebounding to 23.5c, due to minor adjustments in weather forecasts causing funds to be reallocated across adjacent temperature brackets. May 12, 2026 - May 12, 2026, the price of the 19°C option temporarily spiked from 7c to 18.5c before quickly falling back, likely due to a small trade hitting thin liquidity.

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